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30th January Selection (1)
5.30 Kempton Saturday – Parknacilla (1pt each way)
6-1 Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor
11-2 Skybet, Betfred
5-1 Coral, Lad, Hills
Write up to follow
29th January Selection (3) – Broughton’s Flare 15-2 UNPLACED
12.15 Lingfield Friday – Broughton’s Flare (1pt win)
15-2 B365, Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy, Hills
I do think the pace could be quite strong here and although it wouldn’t surprise me if a big run is anticipated of Axel Jacklin, things may not pan out for him today. With Soyunique, Boy George, Dreaming Of Paris and The Sunday Club all also wanting to make the running, it could set up for a closer in Broughton’s Flare. Interestingly, he has been dropped back to the minimum trip on all three starts for Adam West and given tentative rides out the back on all occasions. He has still run well enough considering he isn’t a sprinter and surely remains in good form for his new trainer. The step back up to 7f looks to be a sign of intent today and he is well handicapped to strike of 59, having won off 65 at Kempton and placed off 68. For a gambling yard, my only worry is that he isn’t put into the race again, but if he is he really should be winning this. Win bet advised.
29th January Selection (2)
6.45 Wolverhampton Friday – Beijing Billy (1pt each way)
6-1 general price but B365, Coral, Lad, Boyles best odds advised
I can’t believe how short Bosphorus has opened in this and he will surely be going off a bigger price than 11-8. He hasn’t achieved anything and has to be one of Godolphin’s least exciting prospects. Coupe De Champagne has a jockey booked having his first ever ride and can almost immediately be opposed. Study The Stars is better off with us at the weights here but I can’t put my faith in Elinor Jones for a yard on a 39 runner losing streak, so I will give Beijing Billy an each way shout at what appears to be a big price. He enjoyed the step up in trip last time out when staying on strongly at the finish and he remains unexposed over the distance. He also has some decent novice form in the book, with his debut already starting to work out very well. With the most experienced claimer onboard, he seems an each way bet to nothing if able to reproduce or just slightly build on his last run. Maxine and Spirit Level don’t look good enough for this and Altiste needs longer trips in the future having not made an impression here last time out.
29th January Selection (1) – Pour La Victoire 7-1 E.W UNPLACED
12.45 Lingfield Friday – Pour La Victoire (1pt each way)
7-1 Bet365, Coral, Lad, Paddy, BetVictor, Betfair, Betfred, Betway
13-2 Skybet and Hills
Pour La Victoire, a multiple winner for us including at 20-1 over this course and distance in November, looks well treated back to 7f. He went very close after that win to finish 2nd off the same mark as today’s and he should have every chance of getting his head in front again. The track has really been riding to suit closers lately and there should be plenty of pace in this coming from Rockesbury, Rivas Rob Roy and Alfie’s Angel. We reoppose De Little Engine at the same weights as the November win, but there is definitely more value in our price considering DLE is winless in 10 starts at the track. Heptathlete won a very poor race at Wolverhampton last time and she effectively has a 6lb penalty to carry. Midnight Drift didn’t really achieve anything in his first three runs and will likely need this after a year’s break. Holy Tiber is a turf horse (1-21 on AW) and Rivas Rob Roy’s C&D win in February was massively skewed by the pace bias that he took advantage of. The rest cannot be fancied, so the 7-1 looks value to me at an each way price for a horse that is consistent over this track and trip.
28th January Selection – Van Dijk 9-2 UNPLACED
4.50 Newcastle Thursday – Van Dijk (1pt win)
9-2 Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy
4-1 Boyles, Skybet, Betfred, Betway
I do think this is between Dramatista and Van Dijk and at the prices I will side with the latter, who I expected to be more around the price of 5-2. He has improved leaps and bounds since the start of the year, with form reading 1221, easily being his most consistent period in his career to date. In reality, you could argue that he should have won all four runs considering he was very slow away on all occasions, but made up so much ground in the process. I thought the drop back to 7f would be against him here last time out, but he made it look easy despite being nudged along for the entire race. The further they went, the better he got and the step back up to a mile looks massively in his favour. My only concern is with him being drawn on the other side of the track in stall 1, but I do think he still has plenty in hand even after accounting for the 5lb penalty. Dramatista won cosily over C&D last time out and rates the obvious danger, but I do think Van Dijk can keep improving on this surface and we get 3lb from her. Harry Russell knows the horse well and is one of the more experienced claimers in this lineup – he is also in form (3-9, 33%) as is Anthony Brittain (5-22, 23%).
27th January Selection (4) – Lady Camelot 18-1 E.W UNPLACED
8.20 Kempton Wednesday – Lady Camelot (0.5pt each way)
18-1 Coral, Lad, Paddy, Betfair, Hills, Betfred and Betway
All paying 4 places as advised
This is wide open with 13 runners. Those at the head of the market deserve to be there but I couldn’t help thinking that Lady Camelot is overpriced at the 18-1 on offer. She was a winner for Philip Kirby over obstacles nearly two years ago but has since been kept to the flat where her mark has dropped from 82 to 54. In addition, she has been tried on a variety of surfaces but never over this far and her efforts suggest the longer the trip, the better. Since that win, her only decent run was her penultimate one at Southwell over 14f. She lost her position until staying on very strongly in the home straight to only get beaten half a length in 2nd place, suggesting a go at 2m looks like a good move. Now she has been switched to a fairer surface, she could have a lot more to offer from a very low mark. Ben Curtis regains the ride which is another positive – he is 7-26 (26.92%) with a 61.54% place rate for Kirby on the All-weather, showing a profit of 13.44pts to BSP and an A/E of 1.52. I am hoping she can return to form here and with four places on offer, she could hit the frame.
27th January Selection (3) – Oud Metha Bridge 7-2 UNPLACED
6.50 Kempton Wednesday – Oud Metha Bridge (1.5pt win)
7-2 General price
Similar to our first selection, this looks to have a lot of deadwood in it that I can’t see getting involved. Cashel has never won outside of a Class 6 and needs a few more pounds off, while Moxy Mares is on a losing run of 26 and Malvern is rapidly regressing with form in handicaps reading 0000. Pink Jazz may be better back at a mile but he is actually running off 8lbs higher than his Wolverhampton win without Greatrex’s claim and has a bit to prove switching to polytrack. Oud Metha Bridge seems the safest option, as he showed a turn of foot to easily do best of those held up when winning comfortably over C&D last time out. That was his first run in cheek pieces and he remains unexposed in the headgear after a 5lb penalty. He has denied much higher marks in the past (77 here) and has placed off as big as 84 on the All-weather. I am very hopeful he can follow up here and I expected him to be more of a 2-1 shot than 7-2.
27th January Selection (2) – Willingly 20-1 E.W UNPLACED
7.20 Kempton Wednesday – Willingly (0.5pt each way)
20-1 Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor
16-1 Coral, Lad and Boyles all best odds
16-1 Skybet, Betfred and Betway
All firms paying 4 places
A big open field here and with all firms paying 4 places, Willingly looks overpriced. She ran a good race when third over course and distance on her penultimate run in a higher grade than this. She couldn’t back it up last time but that can easily be forgiven considering she was chasing a very strong pace which set up for closers. The 7f also wouldn’t have suited and a return to a mile is in her favour today. Nicola Currie is a stronger handler than Francis and we get the plum draw in stall 1. She tends to have good gate speed and there doesn’t seem to be an abundance of pace today, so I expect us to go to the front. First time blinkers are also another potential source of improvement. My Law, Global Style and Air Of York are all hold up horses that I expect to find the slow pace against them and He’s Our Star and Toofi are both winless on the AW, with only 2 places from 21 combined starts between them. A big run is certainly not off the cards here.
27th January Selection (1) – Vivency 10-3 WON
5.15 Kempton Wednesday – Vivency (2pt win)
10-3 general price but best odds Coral, Boyles and Lad
For the grade, this race has a lot of deadwood in it. Perfect Rose is becoming expensive to follow, now winless in 12 starts having not lived up to expectations. Lady Alavesa is also on a long losing run of 23, her last win over two years ago. Eponina is also an appalling 0-23 on the All-weather, while both Parikarma and Poetry And Art have seriously regressed lately. The clear pick for me here is the unexposed Vivency making her handicap debut. She has run two very good races, in particular finishing 2nd here last time out when pulling 5.5l clear with the winner Melody Of Life and 3rd placed Loyal Havana. They are rated 78 and 73 respectively, so an opening mark of just 70 for our filly is very lenient when you consider we were giving both of those horses 13lbs. She could easily be better than this grade and therefore represents a solid bet from the plum draw in stall 1.
26th January Selection (5) – Elzaam’s Dream 11-2 E.W 3RD
3.10 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Elzaam’s Dream (0.5pt each way)
11-2 Coral, Lad, Paddy, Betfair, Betfred, Boyles, Betway all 4 places as advised
Whether Elzaam’s Dream can give an accumulated 16lbs to Krazy Paving remains to be seen, but the former ran three consecutively impressive races over this course and distance at the end of last year in better races than this. For the first two of those she missed the break and used up so much energy to get to the front early on, but was able to hold on for a 12-1 winner for us the second time. She was ridden more patiently in December but quickened off a slow pace to only get denied a neck. That was also in a much better 0-65 than the 0-55 she drops into today. Krazy Paving got back to winning ways in a classified race last time out and although he didn’t beat anything, he is unpenalised and gets a lot of weight from us here. With four places on offer however, I’d be extremely disappointed if our selection didn’t hit the frame and she seems an each way shot to nothing with course form reading 238212 (80% placed) in handicaps. Probert is also an upgrade on Kieren O’Neill.
26th January Selection (4) – Zafaranah 8-1 E.W UNPLACED
6.10 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Zafaranah (0.75pt each way)
8-1 Paddy, Betfair, Coral, Lad, Betfred, Betway, Boyles
All paying 4 places as advised
A big field with plenty in contention but this three time course winner (one C&D) has dropped markedly in the weights and has been ridden suspiciously in her last few runs. Zafaranah is usually a prominent runner but has been dropped out on both of his last two runs. The first of those he actually broke well out of the stalls and was pushed to the front but then was restrained to the rear, a classic energy wasting move. He joined Stella Barclay on a mark of 75 but she has managed to get it down to 60 today and has booked Hollie Doyle. I’d be surprised if a big run isn’t anticipated and with four places on offer she should be hitting the frame here with an experienced jockey doing the steering.
26th January Selection (3) – Nodasgoodasawink 5-1 UNPLACED
7.10 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Nodaswgoodasawink (1pt win)
5-1 Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred, Betway
Major J is a danger but is far too short given his tendency to be slow away. He will struggle if missing the break from stall 1 over 7f at Wolverhampton as it starts on a left handed chute. I also think he will be better at a mile but it wouldn’t surprise me if he won today. Notasgoodasawink offers more value and ran a very eye catching race under Hollie Doyle at Lingfield last time out. She dropped her out in last place and didn’t start riding until it was obvious she had way too much to do. I am sure that was an educational run and given her keenness in the first half of the race, a first time hood could help her settle. Marquand gets the ride today and I am hopeful he races her more prominently in this very poor race. Although she was getting weight last time, she drops back into a 0-55 from a 0-65 here and should have a good chance of getting off the mark.
26th January Selection (1 and 2) – Star Ascending 12-1 E.W WON Born To Reason 9-1 E.W 4TH
5.40 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Born To Reason (0.75pt each way)
9-1 Betfair and Paddy 4 places, BetVic 3pl
8-1 Coral, Lad and Skybet 4 places
8-1 Boyles, Betfred, Betway
Star Ascending (0.5pt each way)
12-1 B365, BetVictor, Betfred, Boyles
I had a look at Born To Reason at long odds before his last run but decided against due to the continued absence of his desired blinkers. His form when applying blinkers after a series of below par runs is very eye catching. Four of his five career wins have come in the headgear and the other was when cheek pieces were going on for the first time. Four of those wins were also at this track, two over course and distance. A common theme with how he is campaigned is taking the headgear off to get his mark down and then win (or at least improve) when it gets reapplied. I am hoping that is the case today and having watched his last few runs, it is obvious this one has been purposely ridden without the primary aim of winning. He is normally a prominent runner but has been held up a few times lately, including last time out when staying on without ever being asked for much under delicate handling in a 0-60. A jockey change to Luke Morris is also encouraging of a better run and he has won much tougher races than this very poor 0-50 classified stakes. Star Ascending is also worth taking note of. He is another course specialist who has dropped significantly in the weights following some poor runs. He has won 5 times here, albeit over the further 12f, but has been weak at the finish over that trip in recent times. Headgear changes also seem to be a common occurrence for him and the visor goes back on today with Rossa Ryan taking the ride, who won on the horse in 2018.
25th January Selection (8) – French Mix 7-2 UNPLACED
7.45 Kempton Monday – French Mix (1pt win)
7-2 most firms
I originally had this between French Mix and Mistress Nellie so I was glad to see the latter withdrawn this morning, making my decision easy. In a very poor 0-55 handicap, French Mix has dropped significantly in the weights since the end of 2019, from a mark of 78 down to 54. That followed several poor efforts with form reading P00000 until a complete turnaround at Lingfield last time out. She must have covered the most ground in the race as she travelled wide throughout and still managed to stay on at the finish. It seems she has found her foot again and this is the time to catch them right when they have dropped so far in the weights. Liam Keniry regains the ride and he did win on this horse in 2018. With her being this well handicapped and seeing some money last time out, I have no doubt that a big run is expected from her today.
25th January Selection (7) – Puffin Island 7-2 3RD
3.40 Chelmsford Monday – Puffin Island (1pt win)
7-2 B365, Coral, Lad, Betfair, Paddy, Betfred
10-3 the rest
In what seems to be a race between the top three in the market, Puffin Island offers the most value and is sure to appreciate the big step up in trip to a mile today. She stayed on well when being the only hold up horse to come off the pace and was ridden under hands and heels on her handicap debut here over 6f – her breeding suggests a mile is much more like her trip. Two of her half sisters won at 10f and one of them won on the AW (RPR 101). Her dam was also a 1m winner as well as other half-sister Parknacilla who has the same owners. We get 11lbs from our market rivals with Grace McEntee’s claim here and I think this one has been ridden for a mark over sprint trips. She should have a fair chance of getting off the mark today.
25th January Selection (6) – Casaruan 4-1 UNPLACED
2.10 Chelmsford – Casaruan (1pt win)
4-1 Coral, Lad, BetVictor
Some horses really don’t like being held up at Chelmsford and although Glint Of An Eye has shown promising signs lately, she could be better at a different track. Casaruan however loves Chelmsford, with form in handicaps reading 11524. Although the two wins were off lower marks of 46 and 51, he won both comfortably and went very close off just 1lb lower over course and distance three runs back. The form of that close 2nd has since been boosted, with Accomplice (3rd) winning next time out and the winner Lottie Marie only being denied a short head next time out. They are both now rated 71 and 75 respectively. It is also worth taking note of the incredible drop in grade the selection gets today. He ran pretty well in a 0-80 last time out – although getting a lot of weight he still fared best of those close up in a fast run race against multiple horses rated in the high 70s and low 80s. The drop back to a 0-60 is a massive help here and Ali Rawlinson gets the ride back. He should be going close here.
25th January Selection (5) – High Class Affair 7-1 UNPLACED
5.15 Kempton Monday – High Class Affair (1pt win)
7-1 B365, Paddy, BetVictor, Betfair
13-2 the rest
I have this one down between the two handicap debutants and Secret Potion. At the prices I think High Class Affair looks the best option and her mark (60) more than fairly reflects what she has achieved so far, while Ed Walker’s mare looks to have been harshly rated considering she is only having her first run in a handicap at the age of 5. The selection showed huge improvement when quickening from the rear at Chelmsford last time out to only get beaten a length. That was only half a length behind 69 rated Brunel’s Boy and the 4th behind her won next time out in a match race against an 82 rated horse. She proved that was no fluke when also going very close on her next start despite giving 20-30lbs to her rivals. Consequently I think Michael Blake’s filly could be overpriced in this 0-60 handicap, with Megan Nicholls taking just this ride on Monday. 9 of her last 20 sole rides of the day have won, which may be worth noting and overall she is profitable to follow when only having one ride on the day. Comeatchoo is very difficult to win with and needs a couple more lbs off to be in with a chance of winning – he can be opposed.
25th January Selection (3) – Stevie McKeane 6-1 UNPLACED
8.15 Kempton Monday – Stevie McKeane (1pt win)
6-1 general price but take best odds B365, Coral, Lad, Betfred, Betfair, Paddy, Boyles
I wanted to back this filly last time but I missed the price as she got well backed from 7-1 to 7-2fav. I’m glad I left her though as Laura Pearson gave her a pretty poor ride, losing position and forcing her into a wide trip but staying on well when only being pushed out at the finish. Stevie McKeane’s penultimate run is also very well respected as she easily finished best of those racing prominently to pull clear with Arabescato who won next time out and Gold Standard who placed 2nd on both his two subsequent starts. I still think she has a win in her off this very low mark of 47 and we get weight from market rivals Murhib and Mr Zee. Those are both drawn out wide here and the latter won easily over this course and distance last time out. He got an easy lead that day however and only beat a bunch of sub 50 rated horses getting weight from them. A 9lb penalty could be enough to catch him out and Pearson’s claim won’t make a difference as 5lb claimer Ghiani was on last time. Jack Mitchell came good for us yesterday and I am hopeful he can again here.
25th January Selection (2) – Griggy 18-1 E.W UNPLACED
1.10 Chelmsford Monday – Griggy (0.5pt each way)
18-1 Skybet, Paddy, Betfair, Hills and BetVictor
16-1 Boyles, Coral, Lad and Betfred
This is a risky one as you never know when he will be trying but with him winning both of his last two starts at this track, I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t put into the race on a more than workable mark. Griggy is a previous winner for us and has a record here of 30311, with wins off 51 and 65 but he has placed on the AW on marks as high as 75 in the last year for this trainer. With Grace’s claim he is actually running off 8lbs lower (62) than his win at Kempton only three starts ago. When he won here off 65 on his last visit he pretty much won on the bridle by 4 lengths, making a mockery of his rivals. Granted, that was a weaker race but it was still the same grade as this and he was conceding weight all round for a career high RPR of 80. It is obvious that he loves this track so I do think he is massively overpriced if going for the win today. I also thought his last run at Wolverhampton was the most blatant non-trying I’ve seen in a while – Greatrex let him race wide the entire trip from the widest of draws in stall 12 and barely moved a muscle. He has the ability to be better than this level so hopefully he can go well, watch the market.
25th January Selection (1 and 4) – Paxos 8-1 2ND Morlaix 7-2 UNPLACED
7.15 Kempton Monday
Paxos (1pt win)
8-1 Skybet and BetVictor
15-2 Boyles, Betfair, Paddy, Betfred and Betway
Morlaix (1pt win)
In The Red ran really well for us last time out but tired inside the final furlong due to his early exertions, which ultimately cost him the race. He really needs an easy lead to win and he won’t be getting that today with out and out front runner Bartat also in the field. Legende D’Art and Love Destiny are also both potential pace setters. I thought Paxos looked overpriced at the 8-1 on offer for his handicap debut. All of his three runs have been spaced out equally over the last year and as a result this is his first run fit. His first two runs have worked out pretty well too – on debut he was only denied by Arctic Vega who won again earlier this month and is now rated 81, with the 3rd Dartingon also improving with a win to a mark of 70. Second time out he also finished close to subsequent improvers War Cross (80) and Born A King (84). His last run at Southwell can easily be forgiven under an inexperienced claimer and I have no doubt that was just a gallop to get him fit for this race. Another to consider is Jamie Spencer’s sole ride of the day Morlaix for David Simcock. He made a very encouraging reappearance after more than a year off the track two weeks ago when not once being touched by the whip but staying on. That was behind the extremely progressive Power Over Me who has since gone in again twice and is sure to be rated at least 80 soon. Considering we were eased at the finish and weren’t really put into the race, being beaten 2.5l is good form. He’s been dropped 3lbs for that which is very lenient and the extra furlong today will definitely suit.
24th January Selection (5) – Enchantee 5-1 3RD
12.40 Lingfield Sunday – Enchantee (1pt win)
11-2 Betfair and Paddy
5-1 Coral, Lad, B365, Betway
You can find a few reasons to oppose most of these in an exposed field. Melgate Majeure appreciated the return to this trip last time out but he was given what I thought was a race winning ride by James Sullivan who made the move early. Lingfield is a very different track and surface however, while a 6lb claimer isn’t the best of bookings. Narjes is consistent here but I don’t think he picked up that well last time out and he’s one that really needs things to fall right. Violet’s Lads only just held on over the mile here LTO so I can never back her at this new longer trip and Deleyll is likely waiting for his cheekpieces to go back on before a win. Sir Mark Todd only started training at the end of 2019 and although he took a while to get going, his last two runners have both won, with David Probert on both of them. I do think his runner today could go well as Enchantee is still unexposed making her 6th career start. Her best run was over this trip on her handicap debut behind two horses which both won next time out and a return to this fairer surface should be in her favour. With a few unknowns, a win bet is advised but it wouldn’t surprise me if she is capable of improving here.
24th January Selection (4) – Blairlogie NR
1.10 Lingfield Sunday – Blairlogie (0.5pt win only)
12-1 All firms bar Skybet 11-1 (no BOG)
I was originally debating this one against Famous Dynasty and Regulator as both like it here and there looks to be four horses fighting for the lead. The last two are now both non-runners so I am happy to have a small win bet on Blairlogie on a basement mark of 45, with the capable Callum Hutchinson taking off another 7lbs. He has been running quite consistently over this trip on the All-weather and stayed on well over this course and distance in October off 8lbs higher. He tried to make the running last time but he faded so I am hoping they revert to more patient tactics today. With enough pace on in an 8 runner field over this trip, he could run well.
24th January Selection (3) – Always Fearless 3-1 UNPLACED
2.10 Lingfield Sunday – Always Fearless (1pt win)
3-1 Coral, Lad, B365, Skybet, Betfair, Paddy, Betfred
Could go off a bit bigger so make sure you have best odds
Always Fearless ran another really nice race last time out at Newcastle, only being denied a neck to Anif who won again at the same track next time out, now rated 80. The 3rd Perfect Swiss also won next time out and is rated 81, meaning this race has worked out very well. We drop back slightly in grade and Thore takes off a handy 3lb from an unchanged mark. I don’t think Thrill Seeker is that good and he certainly hasn’t reached the heights his price tag suggested was expected of him. Catch My Breath broke his AW maiden here LTO but it was a much poorer grade and Rogue Tide would need another surprise career best to win this, having only narrowly held on LTO. With the form of his last race working out well I think he could get a 2nd career win today and he stays further than this so can be ridden a bit more aggressively if sitting handy.
24th January Selection (2) – Storm Over 9-1 UNPLACED
4.10 Lingfield Sunday – Storm Over (1pt win)
9-1 Coral, Lad, BetVictor, Skybet, Hills
17-2 Betfair, Paddy, Betfred, Betway
Quite a few of these come into this race on bad marks which look beyond them at this level. They include Grey Galleon, Spring Romance and Garth Rockett. While he won over this course and distance last time out, you could also arguably put Power Over Me in that category considering this is much tougher and he has a double penalty of 9lbs higher than that win. 11-8 is very short based on what he has achieved. Jackstar has often been an awkward ride and Dazzling Des would be more tempting to me over the minimum trip, so with that in mind it may be worth siding with Storm Over, who hinted at a revival on his penultimate run at Wolverhampton. It was also a much improved speed figure (joint highest here in the last 6 months) and a subsequent fibresand debut was probably to try and knock a couple of extra pounds off his mark. It goes without saying he is well handicapped off this career low mark of 74, having won off 83 a year ago and 89 in 2018. Makin sends just this one on the 250 mile south and books Tom Marquand for the first time on one of his runners. He looks overpriced and I think he should outrun his odds at a track that should suit him.
24th January Selection (1) – Born To Finish 8-1 WON
2.40 Lingfield Sunday – Born To Finish (1pt win)
8-1 advised Bet365, Coral, Lad, Boyles, Betfred all best odds
8-1 Betway and BetVictor
15-2 the rest
Take best odds if you can but shouldn’t be needed
This is a reasonably open race but I think there should be plenty of pace on to set it up for a closer. That would suit the running style of Born To Finish, who I thought did it a shade cosily when winning over this trip at Kempton last time out in a higher grade. He easily fared best of those held up off the pace, with prominent runners finishing 2nd and 3rd. A 4lb rise may not be beyond him as he has won off much higher marks in the past. As a result I am quite surprised to see him as big as his current price and I have no issues siding with this last time out winner. Trixie Waterbury fairly bolted up over this C&D last time but it was a weaker race and an 8lb penalty seems excessive to me considering she needs things to fall right having disappointed the last time. Mayson Mount and Princesse Animale are both respected but I can’t back a high draw on this track – the former has been given enough chances but may be worth saving for another day. Pretty much all of those drawn on the inside of us will want to at least race prominently so I am confident Jack Mitchell can give him a good chance of following up here.
21st January Selection (4) – Glenamoy Lad 6-1 UNPLACED
7.00 Newcastle Thursday – Glenamoy Lad (1pt win)
6-1 General price
There is one obvious contender sticking out like a sore thumb in this and that goes to Glenamoy Lad. He has an outstanding course and distance record of 11923, with wins off 85 and 93 and places off 87 and 86. He hasn’t raced at the track for nearly a year but has dropped to a very dangerous mark of 67 for Jennie Candlish. That has come after several runs out the back over 5f and never being put into his races under mostly hands and heels. It goes without saying that a return to his favourite track and back up to 6f hints of a return to form and he could have over a stone in hand here in a 0-70 handicap. An RPR of 102 recorded here just goes to show how well he performs at the track. There is no clear front runner but plenty will want to be prominent and this horse could simply be miles better than this lot if going for the win today. From a good draw in stall 8, he should be winning this if being put into the race.
21st January Selection (3) – Youkan 14-1 UNPLACED
3.30 Lingfield Thursday – Youkan (0.5pt win only)
14-1 advised Betfred, Paddy, Betfair, Boyles, BetVictor
With only 7 runners I’ll have a speculative win bet on Youkan here who does look overpriced considering this is his first run fit since November 2019. He ran well over this trip at Kempton to finish a 2l 3rd off a mark of 77 that day and two runs after breaks since have seen his mark drop to a career low of 70. His reappearance at Wolverhampton last month looked rusty but he wasn’t given a hard time and could go well now freshened up. Martin Dwyer goes to Lingfield for his only ride of the day and he is profitable to follow when doing so. Power Over Me looks the main danger here being 4lb well in but he’s too short to back now. Hopefully the selection can refind some form considering he was an 80+ rated performer on turf.
21st January Selection (2) – Al Kherb 25-1 E.W UNPLACED
12.30 Lingfield Thursday – Al Kherb (0.5pt each way)
25-1 Coral and Lad, Boyles, Betfred
A speculative one in an open race here but I couldn’t help noticing that Al Kherb’s three flat runs since moving to John Quinn in 2018 have all been at Southwell. Although mostly kept to national hunt, he has shown no signs of appreciating the fibresand on all three visits. Subsequently his flat mark has fallen from 86 when he left Roger Charlton down to 70. Considering he was still unexposed when he left Charlton’s yard with only four runs, two of which he won, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was racing better than a mark of 70. A first visit to a fairer surface on the All-weather hints at anticipation of a better run today and at his long odds I am willing to give him a chance.
21st January Selection (1) – Tuned For Power 18-1 E.W UNPLACED
4.30 Newcastle Thursday – Tuned For Power (0.5pt each way)
18-1 advised Coral, Lad, Boyles, BetVictor, Betfred, Skybet, Betway, Hills
I had my eye on this one before his last run as I had a feeling he was being lined up for a gamble. To say money came for him would be an understatement, as he was backed into an SP of 9-2 from 20-1 before the off. He ran poorly however, with Haynes getting the fractions wrong from the front and weakening a furlong out after hanging left. Tuned For Power had been held up for all of his previous 3 runs for the yard but it was obvious they were expecting much better last time out from a prominent position. With that in mind, a drop back to a mile, as well as the application of first time cheekpieces to aid the hanging issue, could be what he needs. A jockey change to Charlie Bennett is also a big upgrade for me and this is a weaker race. He should be well handicapped now dropped another 2lb to 14lb below his opening mark for the yard in November. It may also be worth noting that Adam West makes a very long journey up north, travelling over 300 miles to get his three runners on the track. His two other runners on the day both run in the novice stakes and are both currently priced at 80-1 and 100-1. On paper they have no chance, so I wouldn’t have thought he’d send three up north without expecting a return on any of them. In an 8 runner field, he represents an each way play and hopefully he can show more on the track today.
18th January Selection (6) – Glorious Charmer 9-1 2ND
5.10 Wolverhampton Monday – Glorious Charmer (1pt win)
9-1 advised BetVictor, Betfred, Betway, Boyles, Coral and Lad
Michael Herrington is known for his winners at Wolverhampton and I think he has got this one down to an extremely attractive mark for his first run of the year today. Glorious Charmer joined the yard at the end of 2019 and his first run at Newcastle was very eye catching – he was held up in last place and was travelling all over the field, being the last off the bridle. He didn’t get a clear run and was never put into the race but ultimately he was only beaten 5l in a 0-90 handicap, rated 79. His runs since have been a similar story, most of which he has stayed on well over 6f without ever looking like trying to win. As a result, his mark has dropped 17lbs in just 7 runs from being lightly raced last year, with only 5 outings. I have no doubt that this one will be ready to win soon and he could run up a string of good efforts. Whether today is the day remains to be seen, but I would have thought he is a lot better than a mark of 62 now for a yard that can turn their horses into Wolverhampton/tapeta specialists. He definitely warrants a bet in this 0-65 handicap with there looking to be enough pace on.
18th January Selections (4 and 5) – Arabic Welcome 4-1 WON Visibility 4-1 UNPLACED
7.40 Wolverhampton Monday
Visibility (1pt win)
4-1 Paddy, Betfair, Betfred all best odds advised
Arabic Welcome (1pt win)
4-1 Betfair, Paddy, Betfred, Boyles, Betway
Quite an open race here at Wolverhampton but on the pace side of things, this looks like it could be really slowly run. As a result, Visibility should have a great chance to follow up his course and distance win last time out. Since moving to Scott Dixon, he had two no shows on the fibresand but showed a complete turnaround when winning pretty comfortably here. It can also be upgraded considering he took a hard pull for the duration of the race and it was a much higher grade (0-75) relative to the 0-65 he runs in today. That was the first time he has really shown signs of racing keenly and the cheek pieces go back on today. If they have the desired effect, they could easily cancel out the 5lb rise he gets in the weights. He actually ran three really nice races in February and March last year over this trip off a mark of 69 (one here), so I can’t see a rise to 67 being enough to prevent another really solid showing. We have loads of hold up horses in this, in particular the two drawn on the inside of us and three on the immediate outside of us. We should therefore be able to go forward and if the pace is slow like I expect it to be, he should have every chance for an in-form yard (4-16, 25%). Arabic Welcome looks one to keep an eye on from a good mark, but having watched a couple of his jockey’s rides I would have a few reservations. He must be better than a 63 rated horse though, running well against the pace bias on his debut for Botti LTO in which the 2nd and 4th have both won NTO. This step up in trip is sure to suit.
18th January Selections (2 and 3) – G For Gabrial and Bravo Faisal UNPLACED
8.10 Wolverhampton Monday
Bravo Faisal (0.5pt win only) best odds firms
33-1 all firms bar Betfair and Paddy 28-1
G For Gabrial (0.5pt each way)
11-2 general advised with best odds firms, majority paying 4 places
Similarly to the penultimate race of the evening, this one looks starved of pace. There is no clear front runner, but G For Gabrial regularly runs from a prominent position and is consistent at this track with 3 places from 3, all from higher marks. A few of his recent rides have been a bit confusing and unlucky – denied a clear run, lost position but stayed on were a couple of common themes. He should be able to go close here if sitting on top of a slowly run race out in front. Each way bet advised for a consistently placed selection (83% on AW). Bravo Faisal also looked like an overpriced runner. He has been ridden quietly in his three runs for Adam West but his mark has taken an 8lb fall to 64. Any return to form should see him outrun his odds. Interestingly, the yard had another runner under this owner heavily gambled over this C&D on his fourth run for the yard a couple of weeks ago. He went straight to the front that day and I’m hoping we can do the same here now dropped back in trip. He also gets first time cheekpieces which could help prompt an improved showing. Win only bet advised as this one could need another run or two before being ready to win.
18th January Selection (1) – Kupa River 8-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.40 Wolverhampton Monday – Kupa River (0.75pt each way)
17-2 Skybet (4pl) and BetVictor
8-1 Betfair and Paddy
15-2 Betfred and Betway
Although only 1-17 on the AW, Kupa River is consistent over this course and distance, with a record of 32214, winning and placing off marks ranging from 67 to 70. He ran well when dropped back in trip here last month considering Ben Curtis took a keen pull. The use of 7lb claimer Tyler Heard today means he effectively runs off a career low mark of 55, 14lbs below his C&D win. That makes him a danger today when you account for the fact his last run at the course in July saw him finish behind Tranchee and Global Warming in a 0-78. The former has since won twice, being very consistent to improve to a rating of 102, while the latter also won at Newcastle last month, now rated 84. Tyler’s claim means we also get weight from most of the field which is a big help. Jumira Bridge goes back up to 6f which is not his best trip – he may be caught out here having never won beyond 5f apart from winning over 5.5f on turf (1-12fav) as a juvenile. Sarah’s Verse, Rebel Redemption and We’re Reunited are all others that can force a strong pace for us as I expect to sit behind them in midfield. At the price of 8-1 I am confident he can hit the frame and he should be able to take this if settling better.
16th January Selection (6) – Stringybark Creek 9-2 3RD
8.20 Kempton Saturday – Stringybark Creek (1pt win)
9-2 General price
A reasonably open race where a few have seen money this morning. I am happy to give Stringybark Creek a go today with a few things in his favour. The drop back to 7f looks a good move as it was his best trip last year, with a respectable 4th at Wolverhampton off 5lbs higher in November. Although he had a 7lb claimer on that day, Rossa Ryan gets the ride here. He is an astonishing 8-18 (44.44%) for David Loughnane on the All-weather since the start of 2020. They produce a profit of 80.73pts to BSP when pairing up and a ridiculous A/E of 3.45. It is worth noting that those 8 wins were from 7 different horses, with the shortest price winner only being 11-4. In addition, both trainer and jockey are in fine form of late and this one looks well handicapped based on his 2020 form. We get a wide draw but I don’t think it should be too much of a problem in a field of only 10 and we should go forward to sit handy. Evasive Power looks the main danger, also being well handicapped.
16th January Selection (5) – In The Red 16-1 E.W 3RD
7.50 Kempton Saturday – In The Red (0.5pt each way)
16-1 all firms bar Betfair and Paddy 14-1
Some of you will remember we were on this one when he bolted up over course and distance in September at an advised 20-1. That was In The Red’s 5th C&D win, confirming he absolutely loves it in these conditions. His record over track and trip reads 2131110, with wins off marks of 72, 56, 61 and 66 as well as places off 70 and 75. For all of his wins with Martin Smith he made the running and the manner in which he won by 4l last time suggests there could easily be another win in him off only 4lbs higher. A line can be put through his last run here when he couldn’t get to the front and got pushed back to the rear. There will be contention for the lead today however, with Baltic Prince also wanting to be up there who is drawn on the inside of us. Hopefully we don’t use up too much energy in the early stages of the race but I think he could be good enough just sitting handy on the outside of BP. This race doesn’t look too competitive – we reoppose Cape Greco on only 1lb worse terms having beaten him 4l in September which doesn’t reflect in their respective prices of 9-2 and 16-1. I have no idea how Agent Of Fortune is so short as he hasn’t shown signs of a return to form since falling down the weights – he likely needs several more lbs off his back. Martineo is much better on Tapeta and Only The Brave has a fair bit to prove as an 11-4 favourite, with lacklustre RPRs and a small break since her last run.
16th January Selection (4) – Deadly Accurate 10-1 UNPLACED
5.50 Kempton Saturday – Deadly Accurate (0.75pt win)
10-1 Paddy, BetVictor, Betfair, Betfred, Betway, Boyles
9-1 Coral, Lad
It seems almost impossible to be very confident in anything from this classified stakes, with most of these running at such a poor level for several years. However, Deadly Accurate has had a change of yard and that may be enough to reignite some spark in him. He regressed for Ian Williams, not showing anything in his last 11 starts for the yard bar a decent 2nd place at this track in March last year. Considering he was rated in the 70s before he regressed, if the switch of yard has had any positive impact he should be better than this lot. The blinkers go back on and Richard Kingscote gets the ride who is 9-41 (22%) in the last fortnight. We have last time out course and distance winners Cristal Pallas Cat and Rochford to contend with but both of those only doubled their career wins last time and are by no means solid options to follow up. The market should be telling here.
16th January Selection (3) – Babajan 4-1 WON
6.20 Kempton Saturday – Babajan (1.5pt win)
4-1 Bet365, Coral, Lad and Boyles all best odds as advised
4-1 BetVictor, Betfred and Betway
15-4 Betfair and Paddy
I usually prefer a less exposed type in a handicap like this, but Babajan should take a big step forward today. His novice form is by far the best in the race, finishing either side of multiple horses that have won since and several that are now rated in the 90s and 100s. That includes Alkumait (113), Mujbar (102), Line Of Departure (99) and Magellan (105). His two runs on soft ground didn’t suit but he ran well in two AW handicaps at the end of last year after being gelded. He was slightly outpaced at Wolverhampton before staying on over 7f and then ran respectably over this course and distance last time out (3rd). The form has been franked since with Deep Impression winning next time out and that was also his best speed figure to date. Rossa Ryan has been booked to ride today and he is riding well lately (5-25, 20%). Uncle Dick is the clear danger, but he has been racing at a lower level and looked to get better and better as the race went on last time out. He has to prove it on polytrack today and may want a bit further.
16th January Selections (1 and 2) – Champagne Supernova 18-1 E.W 3RD Apollinaris UNPLACED
2.35 Lingfield Saturday
Apollinaris 9-2 (1pt win) Coral, Lad, Boyles, Betfred, BetVictor, Hills
Champagne Supernova 18-1 (0.5pt each way) 4places advised with best odds at B365, Coral, Lad and Boyles
18-1 Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred all paying 4 places as well
A big field handicap here and I was surprised to see Apollinaris open as big as 9-2 today. A reproduction of his course and distance win last time out, albeit with a bit more luck in running, should see him follow up here. He loved the step up to 7f and won cosily considering he was badly hampered after 2f and had loads to do after being denied a clear run 2f out. A 4lb rise shouldn’t be enough to stop him for an in-form yard and jockey. Another worth noting is the well handicapped Champagne Supernova. Having watched his recent runs back, he has been very delicately handled under mostly hands and heels riding lately. As a result, he has been dropped 8lbs in 3 runs to a career low mark of 59 and despite there being question marks regarding the 7f trip, the large field should help that if he is going for a win today. It was only 6 months ago he went very close over 6f here off an 8lb higher mark and seems to still be capable of getting his head in front. Mulrennan is a bit of a plot jockey so with 4 places on offer, he could hit the frame.
15th January Selection (2) – Be My Sea 13-2 2ND
7.30 Southwell Friday – Be My Sea (1pt win)
13-2 BetVictor, Paddy and Betfair
6-1 Bet365, Skybet, Betfred, Boyles, Betway
I may be mad to oppose Artistic Streak considering her win here last time out, but she didn’t beat much and conditions were poor. Be My Sea is getting on a bit now as a 10yo but returns to the flat for the first time in over a year. He is consistent on the All-weather, with form reading 314231766, one of those wins being a course and distance win in 2016. The last few runs were not bad either as he wasn’t beaten far. It is also worth noting that he has placed and won off marks of 74 and 76, so looks well treated on a mark of 67 today. A return to this track for the first time in over 4 years is encouraging considering his RPRs of 80 and 83 here and there is no reason why he shouldn’t go well on the surface. 14f seems his optimum trip and Probert is profitable to follow when riding for Carroll at this track.
15th January Selection (1) – Man Of Verve 14-1 E.W UNPLACED
1.10 Newcastle Friday – Man Of Verve (0.5pt each way)
16-1 Boyles 4 places
14-1 Bet365, Coral, Lad, Paddy, Betfair all best odds and 4 places as advised
Man Of Verve was a 9-1 winner for us over track and trip in September. He has only had two runs since then and both can be forgiven – he was stuck at the back of a slow pace behind Double Reflection at Chelmsford and then made his fibresand debut last time out in which he was never going well. He returns to Newcastle on 47, just 1lb higher than that C&D win but technically 4lbs lower when you account for Andrew Breslin’s claims. The jockey booking did put me off, but the nature of this race means it is difficult to see most of these hitting the frame today. Many were running at different trips previously, such as The Game Of Life, Ad Libitum, Corrida De Toros and Vertice as well as others. They all have something to prove at this trip and International Law tends to be much more consistent at Wolverhampton. The track seems to be riding slow at the moment and with southerly winds today, I expect the race to play to the advantage of hold up horses, especially beyond a mile. With no other real competitors over this C&D, Man Of Verve seemed a safe each way bet with four places on offer.
12th January Selection (2) – Apex King 5-2 UNPLACED
12.40 Lingfield Tuesday – Apex King (2pt win)
5-2 General price advised
I am annoyed I didn’t post this one last night as he stands out massively as a bet today. However, I am happy to settle for the shorter price given his credentials and I expect this to go very close today. There are several hints that a big run is expected from Apex King – he ran very well on his first start since returning to David Loughnane last time out, finishing a close 4th in a much better race (0-85) than today. The form has already been franked with Cityzen Serg (5th) winning easily next time out. This selection was with Loughnane for the majority of 2019 where he won 2nd time out for the yard over this course and distance off a mark of 77 and then also won on the turf under Hollie Doyle in May off a mark of 86, as well as placing off a mark of 90. That shows the trainer knows how to get a lot more out of this horse and on a mark of 75 today, I expect him to come on for his last run after a 3 month break. Hollie Doyle is actually 7-28 (25%) for Loughnane on the All-weather, showing a profit of 56.74pts to BSP and a brilliant A/E of 1.76. That increases to 3-6 (50%) for the trainer only at Lingfield and he is also in good form at the moment (5-20, 25%). We should sit behind the pace today and although there are some well respected rivals, this really should be winning a 0-75.
12th January Selection (1) – Red Carpet Queen 14-1 E.W UNPLACED
2.15 Lingfield Tuesday – Red Carpet Queen (0.5pt each way)
14-1 Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor, 888sport
12-1 Coral, Lad, Skybet, Betfred, Betway
An ideal opportunity for an each way play here and I am happy to oppose Stay Smart, who has made into a much better horse over 6f. He hasn’t had enough speed over this trip lately and has performed better on the tapeta. One Day is a bit of an unknown leaving Roger Charlton for Laura Mongan – that is an obvious downgrade on his AW debut today. I thought Red Carpet Queen was too big at the 14-1 on offer and she has a few reasons to excuse her recent runs. She reported to have not been suited by the soft ground at Yarmouth when 4.5l behind Onaledge who won, but we reoppose off 7lb better terms with that rival today. She also didn’t see out the 6f at Chelmsford last time and can benefit from dropping back to the minimum trip today. Hollie Doyle regains the ride which is always a huge plus and a first time visor could also eek out a bit more improvement. This first try at Lingfield could suit the selection a lot better than Chelmsford and we get weight from most of the field here. Hopefully she can hit the frame.
11th January Selection – Thowq 4-1 UNPLACED
4.45 Wolverhampton Monday – Thowq (1.5pt win)
4-1 Skybet, BetVictor and Hills
15-4 Betfair and Paddy
7-2 the rest
Quite a competitive 0-75 fillies handicap here where a few have been backed this morning. Perfect Rose is inconsistent for a favourite, still searching for a win on her 12th attempt. I have found it difficult to fancy Derek Shaw horses in the last year and although he’s had a couple of winners lately, this looks like a tough assignment for his runner today. Dancing Rave is running off top weight but she only won a claimer in October and remains close to her handicap ceiling – she couldn’t be described as well handicapped. Eponina is a poor 0-21 on the AW and can also be opposed. It may be telling that Daniel Muscutt chose Thowq for his only ride of the day over Penpal and she returned to form on her debut for Marco Botti last time out over the 6f here. She looked outpaced from quite far out but stayed on strongly into 3rd, easily faring best of those from off the pace, with prominent runners filling the first two finishing positions. A step up in trip back to 7f looks ideal for her and considering she started handicaps rated 81, there looks to be room for a win off the same mark of 70 today. Little Red Socks would interest me at an each way price considering she was only 1.5l off Thowq last time and gets another 4lbs from her. A wide draw again deters me from a bet as well as her yard form (0-22), so she may be one for another day. We have two hold up horses drawn on the inside of us so hopefully we can sit handy on the inside and get out at the right time.
9th January Selection – Saigon Suzi 18-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.45 Chelmsford Saturday – Saigon Suzi (0.5pt each way)
18-1 all firms bar Paddy and Betfair 16-1
It goes without saying that you won’t see many races as poor as this one. That is summarised by the fact that the current favourite Zayriyan is a 35 race maiden and just can’t be trusted at all. Joyfilly is the least exposed of the lot and probably has the best chance if taking to the extra furlong, which she hinted would suit last time out. In a race of this nature though, it is really difficult to have full confidence in anything at the top of the market and Saigon Suzi has drifted to a more than backable price. At first look, she hasn’t really achieved anything but remains unexposed. Her run last time out (7th) wasn’t devoid of promise – the 8th Lady Of York won next time out and is now rated 56, while the 3rd, 4th and 5th have all won since (rated 56 and 63). In this classified race where the top rated horse is 50, that form is as good as it is going to get. Saigon Suzi has since had a wind op and plenty of time to recover, while also getting a first time tongue-tie today. Daniel Kubler is an encouraging 2-7 (28.57%) when applying a first time tongue-tie to his horses and that increases to 2-5 on just the All-weather. He indicated the yard is hopeful that it can help his filly finish her race off better in his latest blog post on twitter. She may not do anything today but at long odds of 18-1 with nothing to beat, I will chance her with a small stake advised.
7th January Selection – Firsteen 7-1 UNPLACED
6.30 Wolverhampton Thursday – Firsteen (1pt win)
7-1 Coral, Lad, Betfred, Boyles best odds as advised
13-2 Bet365, Betfair, Paddy all best odds
7-1 BetVictor, Skybet, Betway
Not my usual kind of selection in a race of this nature, but Firsteen showed clear signs of a return to form when finishing a neck 2nd at Newcastle last time out. That was only her fourth start for Rebecca Menzies and she was very well backed from 5-1 in the morning into a 13-8 favourite. It may be the application of first time tongue tie was the reason for the improved run and she remains unexposed in the headgear today while still being 3lbs well in. Ellie MacKenzie is a useful 5lb claimer and she looked to have a decent amount of talent when watching the ride back – her claim means we get 16lbs from Swinging Eddie who could go in again, but won a very poor 0-50 race last time out. Firsteen can sometimes be slow away, but I am expecting there to be enough pace in the race today to play to her strengths. Word Of Honour looks to be disadvantaged by the drop back in trip considering he stays the 8.5f here just fine, while Bold Decision and Fenix are both drawn out wide which is not where you want to be over 7f at Wolverhampton. We need a fair bit to fall right here from the inside draw, but she surely is a value bet at 7-1 and will be going off shorter than that.
7th January Selection – Baroness Rachael Non-runner
3.15 Southwell Thursday – Baroness Rachael (0.5pt each way)
14-1 Betfair and Paddy
12-1 Coral, Lad and Boyles best odds as advised
12-1 Skybet, BetVictor, Hills, Betfred and Betway
My first selection at Southwell for a good while but this awful classified stakes race represents an opportunity for an each way play in a field in which most will not be getting involved in the finish. Momtalik clearly deserves his place at the top of the market, winning over course and distance last time out. However, he beat nothing and wouldn’t be a bet at a short price. Zahirah hasn’t won for over 2 years and has found a few too good here the last two times. Susie Javea and Van Dijk are both long standing maidens and although the former ran well on her only previous start here, both of those as well as Momtalik and Zahirah have to give bundles of weight to their 3yo rivals. As a result, Baroness Rachael gets a whopping 32lbs from Momtalik after accounting for the in-form Laura Pearson’s 7lb claim. She hasn’t shown much worthwhile form, but her best run was over this trip at Wolverhampton in October when being denied a clear run and getting hampered. A drop back to that trip after weakening over 10f on Tuesday looks a good move. Poet’s Voice has good sire stats on fibresand – his 3yo progeny are 5-27 (18.52%), showing a profit of 18.05pts to BSP when trying the surface for the first time, with a decent 40.74% place rate. That is encouraging that the selection could take to the surface and at the prices with the huge weight swing, I am willing to give her a chance to break her maiden. Watch the market for gambling yard David Evans.
5th January Selection (5) – Pact Of Steel 4-1 UNPLACED
5.10 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Pact Of Steel (1.5pt win)
4-1 General price advised
This is a very weak race and Ivan Furtado has started to hit form lately with 3 wins from his last 9 runners, including two 2nds. Pact Of Steel had a year off the track before making his reappearance here last month over 8.5f. He saw some each way support throughout the day and looked to be challenging until weakening quickly a furlong out. That was his first run since being gelded and a wind operation and has every right to come on for it. A drop back in trip may be what he needs considering the early pace that he showed and he should be able to get first run on Trepidation, who has a habit of being slow away. The remainder look unconvincing and on a career low mark, the selection should have every chance of taking this poor event.
5th January Selection (4) – Choosey 11-2 WON
6.40 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Choosey (1pt win)
11-2 Bet365, Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor
5-1 Skybet, Betfred
Choosey ran a very eye-catching race over the minimum trip here last time out. He was detached and outpaced soon after the start, but made rapid headway to finish only under 4l behind the winner in a higher grade (0-60) than today. Jockey Paul Mulrennan reported after the race that the gelding benefitted from the removal of the tongue tie and also suggested he would be suited by a step up in trip to 6f. He gets both of those things today and if he finds his form again he is very dangerously handicapped on a mark of 56 considering he was rated 70 six months ago. He is normally a prominent racer but may be kept at hold up tactics considering how he ran last time. Either way, this looks like a horse who could be running at a level higher than his current mark based on the evidence given and he rates a decent bet on the return to 6f today.
5th January Selection (3) – Nurse Florence 20-1 E.W 3RD
2.10 Lingfield Tuesday – Nurse Florence (0.75pt each way)
10-1 Boyles, Betway, Skybet and Hills all 4 places as advised
10-1 Coral and Lad 3 places
9-1 Betfair and Paddy 4 places
We have now been on Nurse Florence for both of her last two runs and to say she wasn’t put into the race last time out would be an understatement. She got hampered after a furlong and shuffled back into last place before twice being denied a clear run when trying to make headway on the inside. Shane Kelly didn’t once go for his whip and I think he purposely tried to find trouble in running considering there was loads of space to make his move. She easily has the best novice form in this race and now dropped another 4lb to a mark of 56, surely they will be trying for a win with her today. She gets an extra furlong to give her more time to make a run and this doesn’t look any harder than her previous race.
5th January Selection (2) – Followthestars 16-1 E.W UNPLACED
7.40 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Followthestars (0.5pt each way)
16-1 advised Paddy, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred
14-1 Coral and Lad best odds
14-1 Hills (4pl) and Betway
Plenty in this handicap may not be running at their ideal trips and it could pay to look elsewhere. Plansina tries 12f for the first time as a 6yo and Utopian Lad didn’t convince when trying this trip previously. Bay Of Naples bolted up last time out but that was on the fibresand and has to prove it with a 5lb penalty back on tapeta. I always keep an eye on Ivan Furtado’s handicap debutants, especially on the All-weather as he is 10-46 (21.74%), producing a profit of 112.38pts to BSP and a brilliant A/E of 2.14, showing he massively outperforms expectations. Jason Hart is also profitable to follow when riding for Furtado on the All-weather (+11.96pts) with 14 wins from 77 rides (18.18%). Followthestars has been campaigned over insufficient trips so far but stayed on modestly from the back without making an impression over 8.5f last time out. An opening mark of 55 could underestimate him now stepping up half a mile in trip for his handicap debut and being by Sea The Stars, this is a really encouraging move. His half-brother Mutamarida was also a winner over this far. We have a wide draw but he seems to have good gate speed and there should be enough pace to bring hold up performers into contention regardless. At 16-1, he may be overpriced.
5th January Selection (1) – Uncle Bernie 11-1 E.W WON
2.40 Lingfield Tuesday – Uncle Bernie (0.75pt each way)
11-1 Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor
10-1 Skybet, Betfred, Betway
9-1 Coral, Lad and Hills
Over half of this field make up horses coming over from National Hunt and most are seriously risky propositions. Alcock And Brown has regressed over hurdles and therefore looks on a steep mark while American Craftsman hasn’t won for over 3 years and is on a poor mark based on his NH form. Tinsmith and Divine Consent both have a lot to prove at the new trip and Ballydoyle has hardly looked rock solid in his last two runs over course and distance for a 2-1 favourite. Although he hasn’t gone off a shorter SP than 11-1 for 3 years, I am still surprised to see Uncle Bernie at the price considering he is the only consistent performer in the field over the trip on the All-weather. He has 5 wins over 2m in his career (one of which was here) and although now a veteran at 11yo, he has ran well when winning and placing 3rd at the end of 2020. He remains on a good mark and should be able to dominate in this. There doesn’t seem to be too much pace on, but he has quickened off a slow pace many times before and comfortably gets this trip if running to his best.
4th January Selection (3) – Landsman 33-1 UNPLACED
1.40 Lingfield Monday – Landsman (0.5pt win)
33-1 All firms
A bit of a speculative pick here and although Landsman has been out of form this year, there are reasons as to why a better run may be anticipated today. He had a long layoff before returning at Sedgefield and then the 12f trip last time out was probably insufficient considering he stays 2m4f over fences. That was also in a much higher grade race (0-95) in which he was never going to have a chance. He drops into a 0-70 today and although running off top weight, the extra distance over 2m should definitely play to his advantage. He was racing off much higher marks than this on the flat with his previous trainer in Ireland and therefore could have more to offer today at a staying trip. There is no pace at all here, so if he can break better and obtain a more prominent position, he could outrun his odds.
4th January Selection (2) – Mansfield 4-1 UNPLACED
4.20 Wolverhampton Monday – Mansfield (2pt win)
4-1 Bet365, Coral, Lad, Betfred, Boyles, Betfair, Paddy, Skybet, BetVictor
4-1 Hills but no best odds
Again, there is loads of pace on in this race and those forcing strong fractions up front will likely tire in the final furlong. 8 of the 11 in this field will be wanting the lead or to at least sit prominent and that will play into the hands of Mansfield, a course and distance winner here in September. He also ran well here last time out in a 0-55 handicap behind Thegreyvtrain and gets in here as the highest rated horse. I seriously can’t recommend anything else in this field – Blackcurrant was a shock winner when breaking his maiden at the 19th time of asking last time out, but that was under the handling of Hollie Doyle. This is enough to catch him out today and he won’t be able to dominate from the front. Arnoul Of Metz has the most encouraging form of the remainder, but returns after over a year off the track and hasn’t gone well fresh historically.
4th January Selection (1) – Captain Ryan 7-1 UNPLACED
3.50 Wolverhampton Monday – Captain Ryan (1.5pt win)
7-1 Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor
6-1 Betfred, Boyles, Betway
Captain Ryan is a 4-time course and distance winner who won for us here in August in another classified stakes race, as well as this race in 2019. Conditions look almost identical today, with loads of early pace on. The main dangers are fairly obvious – Kyllukey has been running well lately but is still searching for his first win at the track in his last 14 starts. He can sometimes miss the break and on other occasions can race prominently, which he doesn’t want to be doing today. Dubai Paradise is badly drawn in stall 11 for John Butler and again will be disadvantaged if going to the front like he usually does. The selection has good gate speed for a hold up horse and I expect Keniry to sit him behind the pace like he usually does. We should be travelling best turning for home and therefore it is likely just a case of whether he can find the gaps at the right time. Being the highest rated horse in the race, he really should be winning this and I’d be shocked if he didn’t go off shorter than 4-1. Win only bet advised as there’s not much difference between his win rate and place rate over C&D.
2nd January Selection – Sisu 5-1 UNPLACED
12.00 Lingfield Saturday
Sisu 11-2 available Betfair, Paddy (1.5pt win)
5-1 advised BetVictor, Skybet
9-2 Coral, Lad, Betfred, Betway
I think Coupe De Champagne has got to be considered too short as an 11-8 favourite. He had every chance here last time out but couldn’t match the winner. A 3lb rise for that effort is enough to have reservations for today. Sisu has shaped very encouragingly in her three runs and the way she has been campaigned suggests she could be a smart 2yo for Prescott. It was pretty obvious that she was being held back on her debut – cruising into contention but her jockey never thought about going for the whip. Luke Morris did well to get into a lot of trouble on her second time out – she broke slowly but was forced to go close to the front about 3 wide. He then let her fade back into midfield and got her off the bridle early. Last time out she was given a very quiet ride out the back under inexperienced claimer Morgan Cole. Again, she was only pushed out for her third run in 5 weeks. Sir Mark Prescott’s 2yo handicap debutants at Lingfield are an impressive 4-9 (44.44%) and having had a bad year with his 2yo’s in 2020 (2-82, 2.44%), Sisu has certainly shown more promise than most. It wouldn’t surprise me to see her make into a better horse than a mark of 64 and this step up in trip to 10f can unlock more improvement with her dam being a 11.5f winner.
31st December Selection (3) – Aguerooo 17-2 E.W UNPLACED
3.35 Lingfield Thursday – Aguerooo 9-1 (1pt each way) Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy, 17-2 Coral, Lad, Betfred, Betway all 1/4 odds (note Skybet no best odds extra place)
Aguerooo made an encouraging return to his favourite track last time out where a lot went wrong. He travelled well into the race but was short of room on two occasions and had his nose striked by a rival’s whip. Carson didn’t seem to ask for much once the chance was gone but he appeared to be back to form on this career low mark of 54. He landed a double over this course and distance one year ago off 63 and 66 and even won off 86 here earlier in his career, so he is dangerously well handicapped. There looks to be enough pace on today, with several prominent runners forcing it up front and we get a decent draw in stall 1. I expect him to be held up in midfield but he just needs to find the gaps to give himself his best chance of winning. The money for Morning Shadow is a strange one as she should never be winning this sprint having been bred for classic distances. Hey Ho Let’s Go beat nothing last time out in 2nd and this is much tougher, while Cometachoo will probably struggle without Hollie Doyle on and up another pound – he needs a career best.
31st December Selection (1 and 2) – Suwaan and Jan Van Hoof E.W UNPLACED
3.50 Newcastle Thursday – Suwaan 22-1 (0.5pt each way) General price but Coral, Lad, Betfair, Paddy and Boyles all paying 4 places best odds, Skybet, Hills and Betway also paying 4 places
3.50 Newcastle Thursday – Jan Van Hoof 14-1 (0.75pt each way) General price with all firms paying 4 places bar BetVictor and Betfred
A fairly open sprint at Newcastle but Suwaan has dropped significantly in the weights and shaped encouragingly here on his penultimate run. He was returning from 4 months off and despite finishing 11th, was only beaten 5.5l in a higher grade than this (0-75). He has 5 places from 8 runs here off marks of 65, 67, 72, 74, and 76, one of those being a C&D win and having dropped 11lbs in his last four outings, he could have a lot more to offer today from a nice high draw in stall 12. Jan Van Hoof also looks too big at the price on offer. He has been lightly raced this year but absolutely bolted up over this C&D three runs back in January to win under hands and heels on the disadvantaged far side. A subsequent run at Southwell can have a line put through it as well as his reappearance over 6f here last week after 10 months off the track. Amazingly, he only races off 2lbs higher than that impressive victory at the start of the year now back at 5f – if they are going for the win today he could have a massive part to play. With four places available, these two look like solid each way picks.
30th December Selection (3) – Steal The Scene 9-2 3RD
5.40 Wolverhampton Wednesday – Steal The Scene 9-2 (1.5pt win) Bet365, Skybet, Coral, Lad, BetVictor, Betfred, Betway and Boyles
In a race full of hold up horses, it may pay to side with a prominent runner. Steal The Scene completed a hat trick here a year ago and remains on a workable mark of 60, considering he won off 62 and has placed off higher marks. He was close up for all of those wins and reverting to those tactics should see him go close today. Being drawn out wide the last twice has forced him to race in the rear, but he still ran very well when staying on strongly over this trip last time out from stall 12. He finally gets a good draw in stall 3 today and I am hopeful they will send him forward out of the stalls up with the pace. Market rivals Casaruan and My Law are both polytrack winners who have to prove it on tapeta and the latter struggled on this surface in the past. Mayson Mount may have a chance at the new trip but he can’t afford to be well out the back again and may just find a couple too good.
30th December Selection (2) – Major J 12-1 E.W UNPLACED
6.40 Wolverhampton Wednesday – Major J 12-1 (0.75pt each way) General price all firms 1/4 odds
The first nursery I have got involved in for a while here and most of these have uninspiring form. However, Major J has several potential sources of improvement for a yard that does well with their handicap debutants at Wolverhampton (21-115, 18.26%). That increases to 3-8 (37.5%) with 6/8 placed when Daniel Muscutt is riding and the selection has also been gelded since his three quickfire runs in 4 weeks, having only had two days to recover from his penultimate run. Siyouni is 4-10 (40%) with first time gelding progeny on the All-weather, showing a profit of 13.38pts to BSP, compared to only 3-22 (13.64%) on turf. Despite his form figures only reading 009, you have to take a look at how he has been ridden. His debut was a complete write off, being slow away and his saddle slipping after the start, finishing tailed off. Considering he was still restrained in the rear second time out, he ran well enough in a fairly hot race in which he was mostly pushed out under hands and heels. He was only beaten under 10l behind several horses now rated in the 70s and 80s. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him make into a better horse than a mark of 59, being a half-brother to three winners including Main Street (RPR 100), Specialise (95) and My Frankel (95). He needs to break better today from a reasonably wide draw, but represents an each way play at the price.
30th December Selection (1) – Waqaas 6-1 2ND
4.05 Wolverhampton Wednesday – Waqaas 6-1 (1.5pt win) BetVictor, Betfair and Paddy, 5-1 Skybet and Betfred
I noted after Waqaas’ last run Mark Usher tweeting that ‘his feet problems are a thing of the past’. That was backed up by an improved showing at Kempton when he stayed on well into 3rd, despite being slightly hampered inside the final 100yds. If he is back to form like he seems to be, he is certainly well placed to strike in this extremely weak 0-55 handicap returning to the scene of his last C&D win. With Isobel’s 7lb claim, he technically runs off a 9lb lower mark than that win, where he beat the opposing Deconso by over 2l giving 9lbs. We run off level weights with him today, which further enhances his claims. I’m really struggling to fancy anything else in this field – Quiteacatch is too short as a 2-1 favourite having only recorded a peak RPR of 51 – he also beat Deconso 2l last time out but was giving him less weight and he also has to concede 4lbs to us today. We really should be going very close here.
28th December Selection – Kells 9-1 E.W 2ND
2.20 Newcastle Monday – Kells 9-1 (0.75pt each way) Skybet, B365, BetVictor, Coral, Lad, Betway, Betfred and Boyles
This is by far the most competitive racecard at Newcastle I have ever seen, with most races being packed full of course winners. However, the opener looks the least challenging to work out as about half the field can almost immediately be discarded. Of the remainder, I can’t see George Ridsdale overturning a 5l deficit with Brancaster based on their meet last time out and I suspect he is too high in the weights now. The latter has a good chance today but is edging up the weights for not winning. Quoteline Direct is another searching for his first All-weather win and this is tougher than his last couple of races – he also gets a rise in the weights for placing LTO. I am hoping we don’t miss out with Ajman Prince considering he was poor for us in his last two runs – he hasn’t been consistent enough to justify a bet today despite dropping back to 12f.
Kells looks a very interesting contender up half a mile in trip on just his third start for Michael Appleby. He is extremely well bred being a brother or half-brother to 4 winners for Aidan O’Brien, all of which recorded RPRs over 100, including Father Christmas (111) who won at this trip and his dam was also a smart Group 1 winner (110). His best speed figures came when he tried 10 furlongs over in Ireland, staying the trip fine on both occasions. On his debut for Appleby here 3 weeks ago, he could only stay on at one pace over the mile and last time out he was never put into the race from the back, despite travelling well enough. This step up to 12f looks like a sign of intent and he is well handicapped based on his best Irish form in the summer and autumn. Andrew Mullen is struggling for winners of late and is a poor 0-22 for Appleby at this track, but the yard is going well (10-42, 24%) and he has plenty going for him to think he is worth an each way play.
26th December Selections 1 and 2 – Kinderdijk and Lasting Beauty E.W UNPLACED
4.35 Wolverhampton Saturday
Kinderdijk 50-1 General price (0.5pt each way)
Lasting Beauty 33-1 General price apart from Betfair and Paddy 30-1 (0.5pt each way)
Take best odds if you can at Bet365, Coral, Lad and Boyles but shouldn’t be needed regardless
0.5pt each way on both, total 2pt outlay
I think two of these are very short in an open novice event. Mystify Me will surely be going off bigger than a general 6-4 favourite on her debut from a wide draw in stall 11. Another starting out wide is the second favourite Donny Marlow. He won on debut but only just got up on the line and it was a very poor maiden stakes, with a 66 rated horse in 2nd and 55 in 3rd. He also has to give 9lb to the fillies. Blue Moonrise looks to be disadvantaged by the drop back in trip having stayed on well over 6f last time and Big Thanks only raced in a poor maiden at Southwell last time too. Although not normally known for 2yo winners, John Butler has had 4 of them in 2020, the same amount he had in the previous 7 years combined. Two of those won second time out for the yard and he has two runners today in Kinderdijk and Lasting Beauty. The former took a hard pull on her debut over 6f on debut but looked to show enough promise despite not being asked for much. She is attractively bred, being a half-sister to 4 winners including The Paddyman (6f, RPR 105) and Critical Time (RPR 81), so could well improve plenty for the experience. David Probert has been among the winners lately and he retains the ride. Lasting Beauty actually recorded a decent speed figure on her debut over a longer trip which should never make her a 33-1 shot on that basis. She also was given an easy race, only being ridden hands and heels under Luke Morris. Again, she is a half-sister to two winners in Yousini (RPR 95) and Oakenshield (AW, RPR 88), both of which were winners over sprint trips, which is also encouraging on this drop back in distance. These are both speculative picks but have shown promise and could be decent horses. Hopefully at least one of them can run well, watch market.
22nd December Selection (2) – Casual Reply 5-1 3RD
3.15 Lingfield Tuesday – Casual Reply 5-1 (1.5pt win) B365, BetVictor, Betway, Coral and Lad, 9-2 the rest
This filly has often looked difficult to follow and she has been tried over a range of trips in her relatively short career. Despite that, her best runs have been on the All-weather and she put in a blinding effort last time out at Wolverhampton, pretty much becoming detached in last before running on strongly to only get beat 2l. That was in a higher grade than this (0-75) and was a dramatically improved performance in the first time tongue tie. Casual Reply makes her debut for James Fanshawe today since leaving Roger Charlton – Fanshawe is a very impressive 5-15 (33%) with a further 5 places (66%) for his yard debutants on the All-weather, compared to only 2-33 (6%) on turf, showing a profit of 17.5pts to SP and a staggering 2.28 A/E. In addition, Tom Marquand is 8-27 (29.63%) when riding for Fanshawe on the AW (59% placed), again producing a profit and positive A/E of 1.43. A step up in trip back to 10f looks like a brilliant move considering how she ran last time and staying further than this in the past. The tongue tie is also retained so I am hoping her new trainer can get an extra gear out of her for the win today. This is easily the weakest race she has run in and the money for the favourite is very confusing – although drifting this morning I am hoping the selection gets backed before the off.
22nd December Selection (1) – One To Go 3-1 2ND
2.45 Lingfield Tuesday – One To Go 3-1 (1.5pt win) B365, Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy, Betfred, Betway and Boyles all best odds
Another selection dropping significantly in grade here and One To Go has shown on two occasions over course and distance that he gets this trip just fine. He is a bit unpredictable as he can sometimes make the running, but other times can miss the break and race in the rear. That was the case last time when he still managed to record a great speed figure despite the slow start. This is much weaker – By Jove likely needs further than this, Prosili wasn’t good enough for us last time out and gets another wide draw, while Tebay and Subliminal have also been running in easier races than this and need to step up to feature. Hollie Doyle has been booked for the first time and she is a fantastic 19-64 (29.69%) for Archie Watson on the All-weather (1.2 A/E). She offers versatility in the saddle for a horse who doesn’t have a set running style and hopefully she can get him where she wants him after assessing how the race plays out. He is certainly handicapped to win being below his last two winning marks and his last win was at this track.
21st December Selection (1) – Billy Dylan 25-1 E.W UNPLACED
4.55 Newcastle Monday – Billy Dylan 25-1 (0.5pt each way) General price but take best odds Betfair, Paddy, Betfred and Boyles, 22-1 B365, Coral and Lad
Skybet, Hills, Betfair, Paddy, Betway and Boyles all paying 4 places but only recording at 3 with best odds
There are plenty of course regulars here but quite a few of those have question marks to answer. Hard Solution is unplaced in 5 starts here, Qaaraat has only one place (win) from 10 starts and that was at his preferred 5f, while Eldelbar and Deolali are both better over further and on career high marks, making them poorly handicapped. Silver Sniper could be plotted up but his draw in stall 1 put me off. I am surprised Billy Dylan is such a big price today. He hasn’t won for a while but has dropped significantly in the weights and has shown promise at this track recently. Despite regularly pulling hard, he still went close on his penultimate run when finishing 3rd from the rear. Last time out he was never asked for an effort, only being ridden under hands and heels once his jockey knew his chance was gone. Today he gets a first time hood – if he is able to settle then he could run a really nice race from a favourable high draw in stall 11. Dougie Costello is a decent pilot and an upgrade from James Sullivan. With four places on offer, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him run into a place and although Suzzanne France doesn’t get many winners, she had a winner here last month.
19th December Selection (6) – Knockabout Queen 11-2 UNPLACED
5.00 Wolverhampton Saturday – Knockabout Queen 11-2 (1pt win) Hills, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes, 5-1 elsewhere
I wanted to tip this one last time at Lingfield, but her price was obliterated by the morning. Thankfully I left her as she finished 3rd, but she remains well handicapped and can go well at Wolverhampton tonight. Being kept to 6f is a big positive for Knockabout Queen and she finished 1st and 2nd over course and distance in January off marks of 60 on both occasions. Today she runs off a career low mark of 53 and subsequently looks very well handicapped based on her All-weather form. There is plenty of pace on today so I am expecting Luke Morris to sit in midfield as that’s where we want to be. He’s been riding well lately (11-57, 19%) so I’m hoping we can catch him on another winner for in-form Tony Carroll.
19th December Selection (5) – Gypsy Dancer 9-2 UNPLACED
4.30 Wolverhampton Saturday – Gypsy Dancer 9-2 (1.5pt win) General price
Those competing against us at the head of the market are all drawn out wide today in stalls 8, 9, 10 and 11. From a better draw, Gypsy Dancer could well end up being miles better than her mark of 61. She makes her debut for Mark Loughnane and returns after a break, but did run well after 3 months off last time out. That was her 3rd run at Dundalk and all of those that finished ahead of her are now rated much higher. The 3rd won both of her next two starts (73), the 2nd has also won twice since and is now rated 91, while the winner Mythologic is now rated 90 for Donnacha O’Brien. The selection had plenty of excuses that day and still managed to stay on well only 1.5l off the winner. Off that evidence, she could easily be a 70+ rated horse if she has retained her ability or improved, which is definitely possible with a change of scenery. Elisha Whittington takes off another 5lb, meaning we get weight from our main competitors. If she’s ready to go, she should be better than this lot.
19th December Selection (4) – Roundabout Magic 6-1 2ND
11.45 Lingfield Saturday – Roundabout Magic 6-1 (1pt win) General price with 13-2 available B365
A fairly competitive race to start off with, but I simply couldn’t leave Roundabout Magic today, considering he was a blatant non trier for us in two consecutive runs here in October. Hollie Doyle barely flinched and only pushed the button when she knew it was too late. They must have been trying to get him back into a Class 6 and he gets that today. Tom Marquand is reunited in the saddle and he has been on for two of his 7 course and distance wins. There looks to be enough pace on the cards for us and it should just be a matter of whether they are trying to win or not. Market signals should tell us what will happen before the off.
19th December Selection (3) – Mayson Mount 6-1 3RD
7.00 Wolverhampton Saturday – Mayson Mount 6-1 (1pt win) B365, Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy, Betfred, Betway and Boyles
I tipped Mayson Mount on her handicap debut at Chelmsford (3rd). She missed the break but easily fared best of those held up in a slowly run race. The 4th Queen’s Course has won three times since, now rated 80 and the 2nd Radetsky has also won twice since, now rated 77. We were giving weight to both of those rivals, so it can be upgraded. Next time out she had several excuses, being denied a clear run and only being pushed out, despite being beaten just 4l in a better race. It was a similar story last time, being forced to race wide throughout from a wide draw under an inexperienced claimer. Now dropped to a mark of 60, she should have a much better chance against a weaker field. Cindy Looper, Luna Wish, Trevie Fountain and Dors Toyboy should all go forward out of the stalls, so there will be plenty of pace on for us to come with a late run.
19th December Selection (2) – Heath Rise 7-1 UNPLACED
12.15 Lingfield Saturday – Heath Rise 7-1 (1pt win) BetVictor, Skybet, Betfred, Betway, Boyles, Coral and Lad with 15-2 available B365
There doesn’t look like many with obvious claims of taking this novice stakes and although Bascule is the one to beat at short odds, at the prices I’d rather have David Simcock’s Heath Rise. He made his debut (11th) in a hot novice race at Kempton that has already started to work out very well. The 9th and 10th both won next time out, recording respective RPRs of 79 and 75. Most of those who finished closer haven’t raced since, but I expect there to be several winners to come out of the race. Despite finishing 11th, he was only beaten under 7l and stayed on at the finish under tender handling (RPR 64). He could easily come on for that introduction and his dam was a smart Group 3 winner, including winning as a 2yo (RPR 111).
19th December Selection (1) – Flotilla 10-1 E.W UNPLACED
8.00 Wolverhampton Saturday – Flotilla 10-1 (0.5pt each way) General price, take best odds B365, Betfair, Paddy, Coral, Lad, Betfred and Boyles
Flotilla is another one I had my eye on last time out, stepping up considerably from the minimum trip to 7f. She was off the bridle early and forced extremely wide, but still stayed on strongly at a track which favours prominent runners at distances shorter than a mile. A further step up in trip to an extended mile today may be able to unlock more improvement and the way in which she was campaigned in novices suggests this mark of 48 could seriously underestimate her at the new trip. Ed Walker has been in red hot form lately (4-10, 40%) and she looked too big at a double figure price. Hopefully she can at least hit the frame today from a good draw in stall 4.
18th December Selection (2) – Mister Blue 13-2 UNPLACED
5.15 Wolverhampton Friday – Mister Blue 13-2 (1pt win) BetVictor, Betfred, Betfair, Paddy and Betway
Beauty Stone got off the mark last time out, but she faces a much stiffer test today in a better race with a 6lb penalty. Having watched her win back, I can’t help but think she only won as a result of a tactical masterclass from Hollie Doyle. She noticed the abundance of early pace on and subsequently dropped her back further in midfield, saving energy stores for the latter stages of the race. Divine Consent has been tried in multiple headgear combinations in his last few runs and maybe needs a few more lbs off before winning from John Butler. Keane’s Kingdom drops back half a mile in trip having looked like a non stayer over 2m last time – perhaps they are still unsure what distance suits him best considering he has only had 3 career runs. The least exposed of these however, is Michael Bell’s Mister Blue. He had two very quick runs in the summer – the last of those was particularly eye catching in that he was only pushed out and not knocked about at all. He has been gelded since and has that ‘could be anything’ factor making his handicap debut off a mark of 62. It is likely he could have shown a lot more at home since being gelded too and should appreciate this trip with his dam being closely related to Surya. His sire Dark Angel has good stats with first time gelding progeny on the All-weather – 13-66, 19.7%, showing a positive A/E of 1.07. If he’s ready to go after a break, he could play a big part today. Win bet advised accounting for the fact he may need the run.
18th December Selection (1) – Time To Reason 5-1 UNPLACED
4.10 Wolverhampton Friday – Time To Reason 5-1 (1.5pt win) B365, BetVictor and Betfred, 9-2 Skybet and Hills
Another opportunity to oppose Arcavallo at a short price here. This is a bad race, although with 3 course and distance winners. Red Allure still needs a career best having only won off a mark of 47 and the same can be said for Mansfield who only won off 46 – both race off a mark of 50 today. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Superseded plotted up for John Butler soon, but his last 5 runs over C&D read 80070 and he needs to show signs of a revival. While Thegreyvtrain has claims in first time headgear and with Hollie Doyle on, he can force a strong pace alongside Arcavallo and Red Allure. That will help set it up for the very well handicapped Time To Reason. He always runs well here, with a 100% place rate in 5 runs over C&D off marks of 64, 64, 65, 57 and 58. His two runs here in January and February saw him place 2nd on both occasions. Since the restart, he has been given two runs on the fibresand and his mark has subsequently dropped to a career low 54. I have no doubt they will be expecting a big run today now returning to his favourite track and Richard Kingscote is a positive jockey booking who is in good form of late (10-51, 20%). I expect him to sit behind the leaders and pick them off in the home straight.
15th December Selection (3) – Raabeh 6-1 UNPLACED
5.25 Newcastle Tuesday – Raabeh 6-1 (1pt win) Betfred and Boyles with 13-2 available Coral and Ladbrokes all best odds as advised
This is the weakest race of the evening and it is seriously hard to fancy the vast majority of these. I love taking on Arcavallo here – he is winless in his last 22 runs, having failed to win in all of his last 9 starts here in the last year. Rockley Point has a chance but beat nothing last time out. The obvious pick has to be Anthony Brittain’s Raabeh. He took a while to find his form but has improved lately. His fourth at Wolverhampton in October was a great effort, finishing only half a length behind Marietty (67) giving her 5lbs, with two 70+ rated horses finishing 1st and 2nd. That was a much better race than this and he confirmed that promise next time out over this course and distance when finishing 4th from the worst of the draw in stall 1. He was forced to race on the far side and did well in the circumstances considering it was a 0-65 handicap. Following two below par runs at Southwell, he drops back to a very workable mark of 55 and he really should be breaking his maiden tag today against a very poor field.
15th December Selection (2) – St Just 11-1 E.W 3RD
1.45 Newcastle Tuesday – St Just 11-1 (0.75pt each way) Hills, Betfred, Betway and Boyles all paying 4 places as advised, 12-1 available Skybet (4pl) and BetVictor (3pl), 11-1 Coral and Lad but only 3 places
A few course regulars here who have claims, but at the prices I think St Just could be underestimated. He ran well over 10f here on his penultimate run at the start of November. Held up in last, he kept on without troubling the leaders in a better grade than this (0-80). Last time out, he was dropped back in trip to a mile – that was clearly the opposite of what he needed and he subsequently never got involved under a tentative ride. His efforts on turf in the summer for this yard suggest he could be a lot better than this mark of 69, having placed twice at Redcar and Doncaster against several horses now rated in the high 80s and 90s. A step up to a mile and a half looks exactly what he needs today and it should suit being a son of Golden Horn. The forecast southerly winds at the track will aid the chances of hold up performers too. Feldspar steps up considerably in grade and only just came out on top at Wolverhampton last time – he can be taken on. The same can be said for Brancaster and Alfred Richardson is a doubt at this trip, having been a nonstayer in the past.
15th December Selection (1) – Dramatista 10-1 E.W 3RD
4.55 Newcastle Tuesday – Dramatista 10-1 (0.75pt each way) Coral, Lad and Boyles for best odds but price there Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred, 11-1 available Hills, 9-1 Betfair and Paddy all firms paying 4 places as advised, B365 10-1 3pl or 9-1 4pl
Dramatista takes a huge drop in grade today from a 0-70 to a 0-55 and also has the benefit of a step up in trip and an eye-catching jockey booking. She made no impression when being outpaced over the 7f here last time out in a 0-70 handicap. A first try at a mile will be a big help, being a half-sister to two winners at this trip or further and her dam being an Italian G1 winner at 1m2f. Daniel Tudhope replaces Rowan Scott and Daniel is one of my favourite jockeys to follow at this track. Again, the forecast southerly winds will play to her strengths as she tends to be held up and she gets a favourable draw in stall 9. There are a few previous course winners that she takes on today, but those were all at lower levels than what she’s been racing at and she has much more scope to improve, still being a relatively lightly raced 3yo. At an each way price, she should be able to hit the frame today.
14th December Selection (2) – Misu Pete 25-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.30 Kempton Monday – Misu Pete 25-1 (0.5pt each way) General price with all firms paying 4 places
Misu Pete’s chances last time out were gone after the start as he was ridden along in midfield and couldn’t get anywhere near the lead that he needed. Perhaps he was done for pace a bit early on over the shorter 7f. A step up back to a mile, which he won over course and distance here in March off 7lbs higher, will aid his claims. Again, there is no pace on today and as long as they are reverting back to the usual tactics, he should be able to get an uncontested lead. I am confident if that’s the case, he could well finish in the top four at long odds. This is an even weaker race than last time – the favourite Zayriyan is a 33 race maiden and pretty much every other horse in the race is expected to be held up. As long as we are ridden to win, we should have every chance if able to dictate a slow pace.
14th December Selection (1) – It Must Be Faith 10-1 E.W WON
7.40 Kempton Monday – It Must Be Faith 10-1 (0.75pt each way) Skybet, Hills and BetVictor, 9-1 Betfair, Paddy and Betfred
This is an extremely weak 0-50 handicap and it’s difficult to be confident in any of these. To put it into perspective with the current market favourites, Essaka is 0-15 on the AW (only 3 places) and Burning Sun’s yard haven’t had a winner for 360 days. Most of these have been struggling to even hit an RPR of 50 but the best horse should be It Must Be Faith. He is consistent over this trip on the All-weather, which you can’t say for any of his rivals today. He has four wins off marks of 73, 60, 63 and 57, with his place rate over this trip on the AW being a very solid 57%. He ran respectably in two better races in June, with the first of those being a 3rd place over this course and distance off a mark of 60. As a result, he is handicapped to strike off a career low 52 today. Although I wouldn’t be putting full faith in this 7lb claimer, it means we get weight from most of the field and she has won on the horse before, being his regular rider. He has nothing to beat today, so just needs to put in a good performance to get back to winning ways.
13th December Selection (2) Blue Dawn 5-1 UNPLACED
11.40 Lingfield Sunday – Blue Dawn 5-1 (1pt win) B365, Betfred and Boyles best odds but price there other firms
I had my eye on this one before her last run and I thought she would have a good chance stepping up from sprint trips to a mile. However, she had a tendency to race keenly, so had to settle in the hood to have any sort of chance. Despite still taking a bit of a pull, Blue Dawn was trapped in a pocket from 2f out all the way to the finishing line. Having nowhere to go, she managed to only get beat 1.25l. I am sure she still has loads up her sleeve but hasn’t had the chance to show it on the track yet. We get a 3lb swing with Black Medick and a 2lb swing with Saucy Encore today as well as being completely unexposed at the trip relative to those two rivals. Hopefully we can have a better start today and get a prominent position. She should be going very close and 5-1 is a fair price.
13th December Selection (1) – Star Of Screen 12-1 UNPLACED
2.20 Lingfield Sunday – Star Of Screen 12-1 (1pt win) Coral, Lad, Betfred and Boyles all best odds but 14-1 available Bet365, 12-1 general price
The spotlight comments about Star Of Screen’s last run over this course and distance have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt. I disagree that she didn’t improve last time considering she wasn’t put into the race at all. She settled into a prominent position early on before being allowed to drop to the rear 2f out, then stayed on to get beat under 5l under hands and heels riding. As I mentioned last time, she hadn’t been touched by a whip yet and under another hands and heels ride, that’s now all four career runs she has only been pushed out. She must have some ability considering her impressive novice form and attractive breeding. Both Book Of Secrets and Where You At reoppose today – the former should have finished closer but we beat him over 2l and get a 1lb swing today. We also get a 4lb swing with Where You At. Of the rest, Coupe De Champagne has an obvious chance up in trip but does have a 3lb penalty for not winning last time out. Victim wouldn’t be a clear contender at this new trip considering he wasn’t bred for it and didn’t get home on his All-weather debut over a mile last time out. A small field but our selection looks too big a price against 5-2 Book Of Secrets considering how the race played out last time and weight swing. Let’s hope they’re going for a win today.
12th December Selection (2) – Seaclusion 13-2 2ND
3.30 Newcastle Saturday – Seaclusion 13-2 (1pt win) Skybet with 7-1 available Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, 6-1 the rest
I was surprised that Seaclusion was as big as 7-1 in this nursery. She has the best form and has shown she enjoys this track when placing twice in as many runs over course and distance, recording an RPR of 75 on both occasions. For the first of those, she finished 3rd behind Perfect Sign who has won since and the winner Light Refrain placed 2nd by a neck in a listed race next time out (rated 94). Her penultimate run here was also a decent event behind Charlie Fellowes winning debutant Vadream and I expect the race to work out pretty well. Despite still running respectably, a drop back to the minimum trip last time out was never going to suit and it was against better horses than this – a return to 6f will be in her favour. I am struggling to understand how Setantii Girl is the current favourite here. Although with a new yard, she has done nothing in her last two starts and all her form is on soft ground. Navajo Spring is becoming exposed, now a 9 race maiden as a 2yo – his times round here have also been slower than Seaclusion’s. Annie Rose looks too high in the weights now and I am not a fan of her jockey. Khabib is also too big a price at 8-1 but has been hit with a big 9lb penalty and his new yard is a downgrade on his previous home. We look to have a value bet on our hands and she should be going off shorter today for her nursery debut.
12th December Selection (1) – Jen’s Fella 10-1 E.W 2ND
1.45 Newcastle Saturday – Jen’s Fella 10-1 (0.75pt each way) B365 for best odds but also 10-1 BetVictor, Hills and Betfred, 9-1 Coral, Lad and Skybet
For a 2 mile race round Newcastle, this has more pace than most and that will play into the hands of those being held up. While Voix Du Reve could have dozens in hand back on the flat, a chance is taken on Jen’s Fella, who showed improved form when upped to a staying trip last time out. He had a lot to do 2 furlongs out but stayed on strongly at the finish, despite being denied a clear run and forced through rivals. In addition, his draw in stall 11 meant he had a wide trip throughout and he covered more ground than the rest of the field. That effort confirmed he should be best at this trip and he remains unexposed for Ian Williams on only his second start for the yard today. Now dropped another 1lb to a mark of 59, we are getting plenty of weight from the field at 8-7 and could be much better than this mark once the ball gets rolling. Cieren Fallon is a decent jockey booking and I am hoping he can give the selection a patient ride from the back.
10th December Selection (2) – Oneofararekind NR
5.30 Chelmsford Thursday – Oneofararekind 4-1 (1.5pt win) General price
Despite being on him last time, I am going to take on Rockesbury today. He is drawn widest and technically is carrying 5lbs more without Grace McEntee’s claim. While this track suits him, he probably needs a few more lbs off before winning again. Elzaam’s Dream is in good form but she tends to miss the break – she can’t afford to do that here over an extra furlong. I expect those two to fight it out up front. Julie Camacho sends just one runner on the 220 mile journey down south in Oneofararekind. She is 17-79 (21.52%) when sending just one horse to a track over 200 miles away, showing a fantastic profit of 118.96pts to BSP and an A/E of 1.54. In addition, Jason Hart, who rides this track really well, is 5-25 for Julie on the All-weather, again showing a profit to SP. The step up in trip will definitely suit and from stall 1, I expect him to sit just behind the two current market leaders and pick them off in the home straight. I can’t see anything else getting close to these, so at the prices he should be going very close.
10th December Selection (1) – Aqaareb 7-1 UNPLACED
8.00 Chelmsford Thursday – Aqaareb 7-1 (1pt win) B365, Coral, Lad, Betfred, Boyles all best odds as advised, 15-2 available Hills and BetVictor
This is a seriously weak handicap, with the current favourite Zayriyan a 32-race maiden. Splash Of Verve is also winless in his last 21 starts, stretching back two years. It may pay to side with a less exposed horse and Aqaareb has more scope than most here. He showed improved form last time out in a better race, finishing behind Black Medick, who has since won his next two starts. He technically goes down 5lbs today with Darragh Keenan claiming 3lbs, who is 3-16 (18.75%) for Evans on the All-weather. Other potential sources of improvement are first time cheekpieces as well as a step up in trip, considering he stayed on same pace over 8.5f last time out. He really does have nothing to beat, so any improvement at this new trip should see him go close.
9th December Selection (3) – Your Choice 40-1 E.W UNPLACED
12.45 Lingfield Wednesday – Your Choice 40-1 (0.25pt each way) general price but Betfair, Paddy, Betfred, Boyles and Skybet all paying 4 places as advised
While I am probably mad to side with a 26 race maiden, Your Choice has a few potential sources of improvement today off an extremely low weight. She steps back up to her preferred 7 furlongs and the cheekpieces get reapplied for the first time in over two years. When she has raced in the headgear she has shown improved form historically, so I am hoping for that today. In addition, she does generally run well at this track, with three places from five runs over course and distance off marks of 78, 63 and 64. For her reappearance in June she found the sprint trip insufficient but managed to stay on from a wide trip, so it wasn’t an awful effort. Callum Hutchinson takes an extra 7lbs off today down to a career low 46 and he rode a winner for Laura Mongan here last month on Black Medick for the same owner. With four places on offer, she could nick a place in this and we should be seeing an improved run. At the price I am willing to give her a small chance.
9th December Selection (2) – Rakematiz 6-1 3RD
2.45 Lingfield Wednesday – Rakematiz 6-1 (1.5pt win) Coral, Lad, Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred and Betway
For the grade, this race looks pretty poor. Derry Boy is a turf horse, being 0-18 on the All-weather and I strongly doubt Junoesque will be following up in this better race having stolen an easy lead at 50-1 last time out. Elegant Love also looks like a turf horse to me and Narjes is perhaps still on a mark a bit too high. The best handicapped horse has to be Rakematiz, who is a dual course and distance winner off marks of 65 and 69, the former being this race two years ago. He last ran here in January and placed 3rd off a mark of 70 and returns back to this track for the first time in six runs, having dropped 8lbs to a mark of 62. Brett Johnson goes for a visor today – he is 5-34 (14.71%) when applying a first time visor to his horses, showing a profit of 19.68pts to SP and an A/E of 1.39. It is likely we will sit off the pace here and track the leaders, but there should be enough prominent racers for the race to play into our hands.
9th December Selection (1) – Three C’s 11-1 E.W UNPLACED
3.15 Lingfield Wednesday – Three C’s 12-1 (0.5pt each way) Skybet and BetVictor, 11-1 Coral, Lad, Betfair, Paddy, Betfred and Hills
I have been waiting for Three C’s to go back up in trip to a mile and he gets that today. He went close over this course and distance in October in a much higher 0-75 grade behind Guiseppe Cassioli and runs off a 5lb lower mark today, making him well handicapped. I only noticed after picking this one out that it’s an apprentice hands and heels race today. However, jockey William Humphrey beat our selection yesterday under hands and heels from the back when he had the option to use the whip. That was his first winner and should give him some confidence. There looks to be plenty of pace in this and he has already shown he can time a run without the assistance of the whip. There are quite a few inexperienced riders here looking for their first win. Sophie Jones is one of them and her mount looks a bit high in the weights now. Black Medick has obvious claims but Little Downs usually finds a couple too good and can be taken on from a wide draw. Gavi Di Gavi is another whose jockey needs to find their first win and this new trip poses a question mark. Chetan looks like a turf horse and probably needs a few more lbs off before winning again – he can help force a strong pace for us. We look to have conditions to suit today and at the prices, he represents a decent each way bet.
8th December Selection (1&2) – Windsorlot 14-1 E.W 3RD / Enzo 12-1 E.W UNPLACED
2.55 Wolverhampton Tuesday
Windsorlot 14-1 (0.75pt each way) most firms, 12-1 Coral and Ladbrokes, 4 places available Hills, BF, Pad and Boyles but only recording at 3 places
Enzo 12-1 (0.75pt each way) most firms, same race as first selection, 4 places available Boyles
We were on Windsorlot last time and he did disappoint for the most part. However, he had a slow start from a wide draw and his hopes were pinned on getting close to the pace. As a result, he had to do a lot early on and was unsurprisingly off the bridle early, fading a furlong out. He gets a better draw today in stall 4 and Ben Curtis regains the ride, who was on him for his last two wins here, the latter off the same mark of 49. Curtis is also a brilliant 10-37 (27.03%) for Carroll on the All-weather, showing a profit of 14.55pts to BSP. A drop back in trip can aid his claims and he doesn’t necessarily need to make the running to have a chance, having won from tracking the leaders and being held up at the start of the year. Rivas Rob Roy and Khazaf are potential pace setters, but both of those prefer the shorter 7f and will struggle at this trip. Blue Whisper has a big challenge from stall 13 and hardly looks like winning under an inexperienced 7lb claimer. Word Of Honour and Regal Eagle are both last time out course and distance winners, but the former won a very poor 0-55 handicap last time and the latter has the visor removed without Hollie Doyle on today. At the prices and with 4 places available, Windsorlot surely has decent place claims and with Ben Curtis back in the saddle, should have more to offer today.
I also think Enzo has a good chance of hitting the frame here and 12-1 is simply too big. He ran well for a long way last time here over the 9.5f but couldn’t get home. He gets an extra 1lb off following a run on fibresand, a drop in trip and a better draw in stall 3 today. Those are all positives to take and he will likely go to the front if trying to win today. Both of ours have good chances, so I’d be extremely disappointed if neither went very close in this.
5th December Selection – Street Poet 16-1 E.W UNPLACED
4.00 Wolverhampton Saturday – Street Poet 20-1 (1pt each way) Skybet and BetVictor, 16-1 Hills, Betfred and B365
A decent race here with 9 runners that can set up a nice each way play. Hector’s Here looks way too short and the forecast slow pace will play against him. I am not sure what to make of Maharg’s Princess on her handicap debut and her yard is also out of form (1-38, 3%). Motawaafeq is well handicapped but hasn’t won in 14 starts and can often throw his races away by taking a hard pull – he needs to settle to have a chance. Tundra will surely need a much longer trip than this and will likely be ridden with future races in mind, while Performance Poet hasn’t shown any signs of winning a race lately. I am very surprised to see Street Poet at such a big price today. All of his 8 career wins have been at this track, winning at the 7f, 8.5f and 9.5f here, showing his versatility in terms of staying ability. Those 8 wins have come off marks of 62, 66, 62, 65, 67, 71, 63 and 65 respectively. In addition, his form in Class 6s at the track reads 22115322110211 – that is an astonishing 43% win rate and 86% place rate. Subsequently, he looks incredibly well treated on a mark of just 60, dropping considerably in grade from a 0-80 last time out to a 0-65 today. It is also worth noting that he was never put into the race from the back last time under hands and heels and all of his wins have come from either making the running or tracking the pace. Headgear also gets reapplied today with the cheekpieces going back on – that looks like a sign of intent to me and he has won in them for 4 of his 8 wins. From a favourable draw in stall 3 today and the race looking to suit in terms of tactics, I simply can’t understand the price on offer – it should just be a case of whether they are going for the win today.
3rd December Selection (2) – Prosili 7-2 2ND
4.30 Chelmsford Thursday – Prosili 7-2 (2pt win) Skybet and BetVictor
We have been on Prosili before when she made her handicap debut and this looks a great opening for her to shed her maiden tag. She ran well in a higher grade over this course and distance last week behind Fortune Finder, who I expect to win again. The pair pulled clear and she is subsequently 2lbs well in today. This is a much weaker race – Bad Attitude is consistent but is 2lbs higher than his 2nd here. Cafe Milano isn’t good enough as a 14-race maiden and has to give us weight. The rest would need significant improvement to get involved. We are disadvantaged by a wide draw, but Prosili tends to have good gate speed and I’m sure she will go to the front out of the stalls. I expected her to be more like 2-1 for this so I am happy to back her at bigger prices.
3rd December Selection (1) – Settle Petal 10-1 E.W UNPLACED
4.00 Chelmsford Thursday – Settle Petal 10-1 (1pt each way) Skybet, Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor and Betfred
There seems to be a lack of pace in this and you’d want to side with a prominent runner given the nature of the race. However, Settle Petal showed an incredible turn of foot off a slow pace over this course and distance last time out and I am sure she is a winner in waiting. Held up in last, she came wide turning for home and was only hit by the whip once to come storming down the outside. Despite that, her jockey probably didn’t want to finish as close as he did, being eased towards the finish. Her two runs prior to that over the mile were also both very encouraging that this horse is well handicapped for her new trainer. She gets a change in jockey to Kieren Shoemark today – he is 2-7 for Brisland on the All-weather and we also get a better low draw today. The only concern is being held up in a slowly run race, but I suspect she will be ridden with more assertion and get closer in midfield. Anna Gibson is still looking for a first win, so Stormingin can be opposed. Kentucky Kingdom’s 2nd here in September is very dodgy form where the pace collapsed and Tie a Yellowribbon has a bit to prove at this new trip having won a poor race in October. Lothario reopposes but our run can be massively upgraded considering we were held up much further back and were given an easier race last time out. If they are going for the win today she has to go very close.
1st December Selection (2) – Ajman Prince 10-1 E.W UNPLACED
2.10 Newcastle Tuesday – Ajman Prince 10-1 (0.75pt each way) most firms
We were on Ajman Prince before and he looks like a reasonable each way play assuming all 8 runners go ahead. Thawry and Nataleena both look too high in the handicap and can be passed over here. Bolder Bob is a turf horse who hasn’t featured in two starts on the All-weather and Magrevio isn’t good enough to take this. The selection however is still relatively lightly raced for a 7yo and this track is obviously where he performs best. He has placed over this trip off marks of 78, 77 and 75 while also winning over the 12f here off 63 and 72. Considering he was never put into the race when held up well off the pace last time out, he looks dangerously handicapped dropped another 4lbs to a mark of 68. Again, he needs to put his last race behind him but they must be expecting a better run here at some point and market support can boost confidence.
1st December Selection (1) – Star Ascending 9-1 E.W UNPLACED
6.00 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Star Ascending 9-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy
Although now an 8yo, this is the weakest race Star Ascending has run in for quite some time. He is a 5-time course and distance winner with wins off 59, 55, 73, 70 and 70 respectively, making him incredibly well treated off only 55 today at the top of the handicap for this grade. In addition, Joe Fanning has a brilliant record on the horse, winning 6 times with four of those being over this C&D. Overall, he has 13 wins from 63 rides (20%) for Jennie Candlish, showing a good profit and positive A/E of 1.22. Jennie is also flying at the moment, with 6 winners from her last 20 runners (30%). He gets a change in headgear today back to the visor which he has won in before and he has tended to race prominently for his last few wins. With a slow pace looking likely, I am hopeful Joe can get him out to the front as that’s the style of racing in which both horse and jockey show their best. If he’s anywhere near his peak, he won’t get a better chance than this to get his head in front, but he needs to put his last run behind him.
30th November Selection (5) – Dynamo Walt 11-1 E.W UNPLACED
3.50 Wolverhampton Monday – Dynamo Walt 11-1 (0.75pt each way) most firms but 12-1 available BetVictor and Hills
As opposed to our other selections, the pace in this one looks like it will be pretty fast with Jorvik Prince, The Defiant, George Thomas and several others likely to want to be up there. While the first of those looks ready to win again, I don’t think the race will play into his hands today. Dynamo Walt however is lurking on a very dangerous mark of just 57, being a 4-time C&D winner off 53, 62, 67 and 70 and also placing off a mark as high as 81. He gets a big drop in grade from a 0-75 at Chelmsford last time out to a 0-60 here and despite not winning for nearly a year, his recent efforts have been consistent against much better horses than this. William Carver takes an extra 5lbs off, meaning he effectively runs off a 10lb lower mark than his 3rd in a Class 4 0-80 here only 28 days ago. Derek Shaw hasn’t had a winner since February and that is my only concern, but the selection looks too well handicapped today to look past and this race should play out to his strengths. I am hoping Carver can drop him out and come with a strong late run, given finding the right gaps.
30th November Selection (4) – Exchequer 18-1 E.W UNPLACED
4.35 Kempton Monday – Exchequer 18-1 (0.5pt each way) Coral, Lad and Boyles all best odds as advised but general price, 22-1 available Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, 16-1 B365 (BOG)
Despite not training a winner for well over a year, Richard Guest’s Exchequer could prove to be well overpriced at Kempton and this race looks to have a bit of dead wood in it. The selection loves it at this track with wins off marks of 80, 75, 80 and 85 respectively. Three of those wins were over further but one was a C&D win and he has a 64% place rate here from 11 runs. Since his last win nearly two years ago he has still ran consistently well at the track with three places from four starts. They were all in significantly better contests than what he faces today – his most recent 7l 8th was last October, a 0-95 handicap. He hasn’t been seen at the track since but returns today for a 0-70 event on a career low All-weather mark of just 70. That makes him incredibly well handicapped if anywhere near his best and his run last time out hinted of a return to form with a much better speed figure. James Doyle didn’t make much use of him once headed and only went for the whip when his chance was gone. A drop back to 6f can aid his chances today and he may be able to dictate out in front. Of those coming up against him, a few have question marks to answer. Something Lucky returns after a break and has done most of his racing and winning over the minimum trip. Leo Minor should be much bigger, having shown no signs of a resurrection lately and Grey Galleon is a turf horse who is now 0-11 on the AW. Bring The Money is another arriving badly out of form and his jockey booking isn’t enough to tempt. There is a chance this will do nothing but based on his course form, a good run wouldn’t be too much to ask for at all.
30th November Selection (3) – Rockesbury 6-1 E.W UNPLACED
7.20 Wolverhampton Monday – Rockesbury 6-1 (1pt each way) Skybet, Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 11-2 elsewhere
Another race where the pace looks to be on the slow side and Rockesbury will likely be advantaged. He runs consistently over this C&D with a 46% place rate from 13 runs, including one win off 1lb higher. He has also placed off higher marks in the past. Now he has been given a short break, I expect him to go close with Grace McEntee’s 5lb claim coming in handy. It is likely the race came too soon when placing 3rd here last month, having raced at Chelmsford too day prior to that run. Inner Circle is seriously struggling to get a win with six 2nds from his last eight runs and No Diggity and Glory Of Paris may struggle being held up in a slowly run race. Breath Of Spring represents a question mark on his handicap debut and I’m just not sure if he will be good enough returning from a 4.5 month break. I thought Rockesbury would be 7-2 in this, so he represents a good each way value bet at the 6-1 on offer. I’d be very disappointed if he doesn’t hit the frame here and he will certainly be going off a shorter price.
30th November Selection (2) – Trusty Rusty 15-2 E.W 3RD
7.50 Wolverhampton Monday – Trusty Rusty 15-2 (1pt each way) Skybet, with 8-1 available Betfair, Paddy and Betvictor
Quite a few of these are way too short in the betting. Leo Davinci doesn’t look good enough and won’t be getting a strong enough pace in this. The same can be said for Beau Geste, who will be disadvantaged by the drop back in trip. Shamarouski also has a year’s absence to defy. That leaves the well overpriced Trusty Rusty, who placed 2nd for us over this C&D two starts ago behind the progressive Frow. Although 3l behind him that day, we were giving him 8lbs in a race where it paid to be held up, with the winner, 3rd and 4th all coming from the rear. Frow has since won his next two starts and is now rated 71. That form should make Trusty Rusty one of the favourites in this event, and an easy lead is definitely not off the cards. I’d have her around a 7-2 shot in this and I’d be shocked if she finished outside the first three. John Egan waits around through the evening for this ride, with his only other being for Harris in the opener. Hopefully she can get off the mark today.
30th November Selection (1) – Misu Pete 28-1 E.W UNPLACED
3.30 Kempton Monday – Misu Pete 28-1 (0.75pt each way) Coral, Lad and Hills with 33-1 available Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, all firms paying 4 places as advised, 25-1 the rest
Several horses arrive here in form, but I was surprised to see Misu Pete at such a big price. He is a two-time course winner over 6f and 1m. The most recent of those wins was in March over the mile here – he made the running and battled gamely to win by a neck. He gets in off a 4lb lower mark today and a drop back to 7f may be of benefit considering the way in which he raced in his last two runs. In addition, he could get an easy lead here and he regularly anticipates the start out of the gates. From the plum draw in stall 1, I am hoping he can get out quickly and not see another rival – early exertions may not be too much of a hindrance as we know he stays further than this. With four places on offer, he most certainly has a chance of hitting the frame in this if on a going day. Despite appearing to be out of form, I am certain he will appreciate this C&D considering his staying on 2l 7th here in September off 6lbs higher in a much higher 0-65 grade.
24th November Selection (3) – Nortonthorpe Boy 16-1 E.W UNPLACED
1.25 Lingfield Tuesday – Nortonthorpe Boy 16-1 (0.5pt each way) Coral, Lad and Boyles for best odds, 16-1 BetVictor, Betfair, Paddy, Betfred and Betway, 14-1 B365, Paddy and Hills
Only one of these has won a race before and it was a very poor race that Jennivere won at Kempton last month. Those at the head of the market have been running consistently well but finding two or three too good. While they all have sound claims of going close, perhaps it is worth chancing Nortonthorpe Boy, who has a few things going for him today that could bring about improvement. He has changed yards since his last run and sold to Phil McEntee – it is interesting that he is a half-brother to All-weather winners Gentlemen and Bernie’s Boy, both of which were trained by Phil himself. They both loved sprinting on an artificial surface and a return to the polytrack from turf could help the selection get his head in front today. Furthermore, he hasn’t been getting home over longer trips, so this switch back to 6f could be of benefit. He has also been gelded since his last run which is another potential source of improvement and despite going the wrong way in his last couple of runs, they probably knew he wouldn’t be competitive in much higher grades than this. Hopefully we can get close to the front and nick a place at the least.
24th November Selection (2) – Star Of Screen 13-2 UNPLACED
2.55 Lingfield Tuesday – Star Of Screen 13-2 (1pt win) General price with 7-1 available B365, take best odds if you can at B365, Coral, Lad and Boyles
Another nursery and this one looks a bit more open. Nonetheless, there are reasons to oppose a few of these. As far as Godolphin runners go, Branwell looks like one of their weaker ones and on breeding he is not certain to get this new trip. His 3rd at Chelmsford hasn’t really worked out that well and I expect him to be overbet in this. Others that may struggle over this far also include Book Of Secrets, Where You At and Saratoga Gold. You could even argue Andonno won’t want this extra yardage, considering his lead was diminishing towards the line when winning at Kempton two months ago. I think Star Of Screen could be underestimated in this – she is yet to be touched by a whip in all three starts and again probably has the best form here. Her debut at Newmarket (8th) was in a hot race – 10th Vesela won next time out (RPR 86), 7th Cable News also won NTO (RPR 80), 6th Conservatoire won her next two starts (RPR 87), the 4th is now rated 79, 3rd Nebulosa won NTO (RPR 81) and the winner Saffron Beach won a Group 3 next time out. A big step up in trip from 7f to 10f looks the key to her here, with plenty of stamina in her pedigree. As well as that, both jockey and trainer are on fire at the moment – Fellowes is 3-13 (23%) and Donohoe is 4-10 (40%) in the last fortnight, with the two coupling up for 3 wins out of their last 4 pairings together (winners at 6-1, 5-2 and 5-1). I have no doubt a much better run is expected and I think she can go close getting weight from most of these.
24th November Selection (1) – Decadent 5-1 3RD
1.55 Lingfield Tuesday – Decadent 5-1 (2pt win) Skybet, Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy, Betfred and Betway, 9-2 Ladbrokes, Coral and Hills
A few in here have quite severe question marks to answer. Trixie Mitskie has been running in poor races lately and that’s reflected in her very low handicap mark. Mammasaidknockuout may end up being the best horse to come out of this race, but she will need much further than this sprint trip. On her second start at this track over 7f, she was outpaced from a wide trip but still stayed on at the finish – a drop back to 6f could easily catch her out today. Youllovemewheniwin hasn’t raced against anything that special and looks too short in the betting. The clear pick for me is Decadent, who has the best form in this race by quite some way. She started out in a very hot stakes race at Newbury when finishing 10th of 14. The 12th has finished 2nd next time out (RPR 78) and the 13th placed 3rd NTO. The form of those in front of her has worked out tremendously too – 9th Rifleman won since (RPR 91), 8th Achelois placed 2nd NTO (RPR 85), 7th placed on both of his next two starts (RPR 78), 6th placed 2nd NTO (RPR 83), 4th Mr Trick has placed twice since (RPR 82) and the 3rd Beautiful Bertie won both of his next two starts easily (RPR 94). Subsequently, an opening mark of 58 for handicaps looks incredibly lenient. If first time cheekpieces have the desired effect under the booking of James Doyle, she could win this very easily. I have her down as the 5-2 favourite in this, so at the prices she represents a confident win bet on her handicap debut and should be going off shorter.
22nd November Selection (4) – Potato Park 8-1 UNPLACED
1.40 Wolverhampton Sunday – Potato Park 8-1 (1pt win) General price take best odds if you can, 17-2 available BetVictor and 9-1 available B365
A nice looking nursery in the opener and a couple of those prominent in the market can be taken on. Hiroshi hasn’t shown too much to suggest he should be the favourite in this, only finishing 4th in a similar event last time out. One Last Dance may be one to keep on the right side of, but her opening mark of 64 seems steep given RPRs of 56 in both novice runs – a wide draw also hinders her chances. Tease And Seize will need further in this, having stayed on from the back over 10f last time out and behind outpaced over this trip on debut. A chance is taken on the unexposed Potato Park. Her first two runs were both on soft ground and perhaps that may not have suited. However, she took a big step forward on her All-weather debut at Kempton last time out, despite being pretty keen. De Sousa pushed her forward to track the leaders after a couple of furlongs and she still had enough in the tank to keep on at the finish after being outpaced. That was a decent novice and she will love the extra furlong today. The Doyler has been booked for her handicap debut and an opening mark of 62 could seriously underestimate her, being a half-sister to AW winners Ziggle Pops (RPR 91) and Healing Power (RPR 85). Win bet advised in the absence of headgear meaning she could be very keen again.
22nd November Selection (3) – Nurse Florence 14-1 E.W UNPLACED
2.50 Wolverhampton Sunday – Nurse Florence 16-1 (0.75pt each way) BetVictor, Betfair and Paddy, 14-1 Skybet, Betfred, Betway and Boyles
We were on Nurse Florence last time out at Chelmsford and she virtually pulled up, despite being backed from an advised 7-1 into 4-1 SP. I do like to forgive below par runs at Chelmsford and she is worth another go at a track that should suit her much better. She has the best novice form in this very poor nursery and gets 4lbs off from her last run. The addition of headgear can help her chances today and Jamie Osborne is 3-12 (25%) when applying a first time hood to his horses (1.46 A/E). I’m struggling to understand why she is as big as 16-1 for this as she should be better than this field. Velocistar being a 9-4 favourite has to be a joke as she has beaten absolutely nothing. Apache Mist and Toplight have also both been running at a very low level and should be bigger prices. From a good draw in stall 2, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the selection hit the frame and we have been on a few of Jamie Osborne’s 2yos in the last couple of weeks that have gone close.
22nd November Selection (2) – Steal The Scene 9-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.00 Wolverhampton Sunday – Steal The Scene 9-1 (1pt each way) Coral, Lad and Boyles with 10-1 available B365, all firms best odds as advised, 9-1 BetVictor and Betfred, 17-2 Skybet and Hills
This race is seriously lacking in pace and I was surprised to see Steal The Scene such a big price on his return to the scene of his hattrick of course wins a year ago (two over C&D). Those wins were off respective marks of 53, 58 and 62 and he tracked the leaders for all of those. I am hoping for a similar outcome today off a fair mark of just 60 and stall 1 will help save energy reserves for the final couple of furlongs. His penultimate run (5th) on the tapeta at Newcastle over this trip suggests he is still in very good heart, only being beaten 3.5l. The race has since worked out very well too – the 6th Great Colaci has won twice since and placed in all 5 runs, the 4th Pearl Of Qatar also won her next two starts at Southwell, Stealing Silk in 3rd won next time out and the winner Twister Dreams also winning next time out. That is seriously good form that should realistically be making the selection favourite in this. The field today doesn’t look particularly strong, so he rates a solid each way bet at the price.
22nd November Selection (1) – Dame Joan 14-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.30 Wolverhampton Sunday – Dame Joan 14-1 (0.75pt each way) all firms but take best odds if you can, 4 places available at Hills
Doctor Nuno has improved lately and has solid claims of landing a double with a penalty. He’s not a bet at the price though, so I will side with Dame Joan who is the least exposed in here. Her third run in March (4th) at this track was against much better horses than what she faces today. The 5th Returnofthemac has recorded form reading 2122 since and is now rated 81, the 7th Le Reveur has won twice since and is now rated 70, plus the 8th Makram won next time out and is now rated 85. Those in front are all rated in the mid 70s too – off that evidence Dame Joan could easily be a 75 rated horse, so a mark of 58 is seriously lenient considering we can forgive her reappearance at Newcastle two weeks ago after an 8 month break. She will strip fitter for that and Tom Marquand has a brilliant record for Ed Walker. He is 16-79 (20.25%) producing a profit of 42.56pts to BSP and an amazing A/E of 1.53, with both of his last two rides for the yard winning. From a good draw in stall 3, she looks a big price at 14-1.
21st November Selection – Carey Street 9-1 E.W 3RD
4.30 Wolverhampton Saturday – Carey Street 9-1 (1pt each way) Coral, Lad and Boyles for best odds, 9-1 Betfred and 10-1 available Betfair and Paddy all paying 4 places as advised, Skybet and BetVictor both 10-1 but 3 places
I like the look of the opener at Wolverhampton and Hollie Doyle does ride this track really well. It is interesting her partner is riding Beau Geste today as she has been on him for all of his three wins, two of which were over this course and distance. This race looks full of hold up horses and the pace here could be run at a crawl. That will play into the hands of Carey Street, who makes his debut for Linda Stubbs. They have wasted no time in booking a top jockey to ride their newest recruit and Hollie has a win from 6 rides for the yard, as well as 3 more places (same horse). I expect her to send him to the front out of the stalls and she should be able to press the buttons at the right time to get first run on those behind her. We run off 11lbs better terms with Amor Fati based on their meet in September and quite a few of these are looking to be at their handicap ceilings. As well as that, there are a few coming back from breaks which I expect to be held up and saved for another day. With four places on offer, I’d be surprised to see us out of the frame in this if the race plays out how I expect.
20th November Selection – Swiss Connection 12-1 E.W WON
8.15 Newcastle Friday – Swiss Connection 12-1 (0.75pt each way) Skybet, Hills, BetVictor, Betfred, Betway all paying 4 places as advised, 14-1 available B365 (3pl)
A very weak 0-55 handicap here and a few of these are hard to put full faith in. Qaaraat and Arcavallo are both very difficult to win with – the former seems to be better over 6f these days and the latter has been given too many chances to win at this track, now winless for over two years. It Must Be Faith is also better over further and his 7lb claimer wouldn’t be getting my money. Swiss Connection looks too big at the 12-1 on offer – he is only a 4yo and his best runs have come at this track. He won over this course and distance just over a year ago off a mark of 62, so he looks well treated off 55 today following a few runs on turf. His reappearance here in June was eye-catching in that he was pushed out to the line and was only beaten 5l, despite finishing last of the 11 runners. That was also a better race (0-65) than this and he gets a nice high draw today in stall 11. There are fairly strong southerly winds forecast which would suit those held up, but there looks to be a decent amount of pace in this and we can track the leaders. With four places on offer this seems like a pretty safe bet, with Graham Lee back in the saddle returning to the scene of his C&D win.
19th November Selection – Double Reflection 12-1 E.W WON
7.30 Chelmsford Thursday – Double Reflection 12-1 (1pt each way) B365, Coral, Lad, Skybet, Betfred, Betway and Hills, 11-1 Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor
A decent stake on this one and quite a few factors are pointing towards a big run from Double Reflection today. Taking a look at the makeup of the race, she is the only front runner in this and will no doubt be getting an easy lead. Her fourth over course and distance last month was a great run in a much, much higher grade (0-75 compared to 0-60 today). She was running against horses in a different league to this lot – the 3rd Burano Boy finished 2nd next time out and is rated 72, the 2nd War Leader is rated 74 and we were only 1.5l behind him off level weights due to the weight for age allowance. The winner Power Of States has since won again over the same C&D and is now rated a huge 84. Double Reflection also showed a liking for this C&D in September when pulling clear to get denied a head by course specialist Bayston Hill (64). The opposition looks nothing more than modest today. Current favourite Cafe Milano is still a maiden after 13 runs and got beat by only 57 rated Glencora on Monday. Brancaster returns to the All-weather after 441 days off the track – this is likely a fitness run for him. Man Of Verve won for us at Newcastle last time out, but he beat nothing and was getting loads of weight. Pope Gregory would rate the main danger up in trip, but we should get first run on him and the likely slow pace will play to our strengths. Kenstone isn’t without a chance but still has to prove it over this far and the rest have got no hope. Double Reflection should be 4-1 in this, so subsequently she rates a strong each way bet at the price and should be going very close.
17th November Selection (3) – Superiority 13-2 2ND
7.15 Newcastle Tuesday – Superiority 13-2 (1pt win) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 6-1 the rest
Not many of these have solid claims of going close and although Katelli could make a good impression on his handicap debut, stall 1 has hindered his chances. Drawn on the other side of the track, I will give Superiority a go on the step up to 6f. She has run well in both starts here – last time out she didn’t get a clear run after being ridden quite early, perhaps slightly outpaced. Nonetheless, she stayed on well at the finish and it was a higher grade (0-70) than this. The extra furlong today can give her more time to make her run and as previously mentioned, the strong headwinds will play to her strengths when quickening off the pace. Etikaal, Billy Wedge and Castle Quarter are three that all seem to be better over further and may struggle back sprinting, while the rest are not very encouraging. Hopefully Clifford Lee can help the selection shed her maiden tag today.
17th November Selection (2) – Budanova 33-1 2ND
5.45 Newcastle Tuesday – Budanova 18-1 (0.5pt each way) all firms paying 4 places bar BetVictor, 20-1 available with a few firms (Pad/BF 4pl) but take four places
This is a weak race and I will side with the least exposed runner in Budanova, who similar to Zoolander yesterday, has had three very quick runs in novices in less than 4 weeks. The second run (8th) has started to work out fairly well with Gumra (6th) winning her next two starts and At Ease (4th) winning next time out. An opening mark of 56 for handicap company may underestimate her considering she is a half-sister to winners Son Of Africa (RPR 103), King Robert (AW, 100) and Pepys (AW, 85). The booking of Jamin takes another 5lbs off and she gets a nice high draw in stall 12. Archie Watson’s handicap debutants at Newcastle are also 3-13 (23.08%), showing a profit of 16.03pts to BSP and an A/E of 1.33. At long odds, she has decent place claims in this.
17th November Selection (1) – Ajman Prince E.W UNPLACED
3.40 Newcastle Tuesday – Ajman Prince 11-1 (0.75pt each way) Coral, Lad, Betfred, Boyles with 12-1 available B365 and others but best odds advised
Eagle’s Foot and Teescomponentsfly both improved last time out and although the latter has claims to reverse the form on 6lbs better terms, there may be more value in siding with Ajman Prince, who is on a dangerous mark returning to the 2m trip. His record over course and distance reads 223 off marks of 78, 77 and 75 respectively and two of those were Class 3 races. He has won twice over 12f here but on a mark of 72 today, he looks well handicapped and stays this trip fine. He managed to get within 2l of Cosmelli in July who had previously finished 4th in the Northumberland Plate (Class 2 handicap) and had Anyonecanhaveitall (90) behind, who also ran in the plate. That level is a lot better than what he is facing today and his price offers an each way angle in a fairly competitive race. Monjeni has a bit to prove at this track and it is also worth noting that Ajman Prince’s runs over this C&D have been the quickest in the field, one about 17 seconds faster than Karasheni’s despite carrying more weight. There are fairly strong headwinds at Newcastle today which will favour hold up horses and PJ McDonald does well for Whillans (27-189, 14.29%) +88.55pts, A/E 1.26, showing the pair outperform expectations.
16th November Selection (4) – Vape 4-1 3RD
8.00 Kempton Monday – Vape 4-1 (1.5pt win) B365, Hills and BetVictor
Although a maiden, Vape’s two best runs have come when racing prominently and he returned to form last time out at Wolverhampton when making the running over 7f. That run can be upgraded considering he pulled hard during the majority of the race and he went clear of the rest over 1f out. He only got beat in the last few strides by half a length to 71 rated Al Aresh, so it was a really good run relative to today’s race. A drop back to 6f looks a good move and the blinkers go back on. Additionally, he gets the plum draw in stall 1 and a jockey upgrade to Tom Marquand, who does well when racing from the front at Kempton. If the headgear has the desired effect and we are able to race up with the pace, then there should be no stopping us. Rusper’s Lad should be much bigger in this – he was hugely advantaged by the strong pace set last time and he won’t get that today. No Diggity hasn’t been racing against much and he is getting penalised without winning. The Establishment will probably be saved for another day, likely needing this run after 278 days off the track.
16th November Selection (3) – Zoolander 25-1 E.W 2ND
4.10 Wolverhampton Monday – Zoolander 20-1 (0.5pt each way) B365, BetVictor and Hills, 18-1 Betfair (4pl), Paddy (4pl) and Skybet, 3 places 1/4 odds recorded
A speculative selection in an open nursery, but the way in which Zoolander has been campaigned thus far suggests he could be a lot better than what he has shown. He has had three very quick runs in the space of 2.5 weeks – in all of those runs he was held up out the back and never asked for an effort, especially at Kempton last time out when he was being pushed out all the way to the line. An opening mark of 57 may seem a bit steep but he could be better than this grade and he is worth a go given his potential to be a handicap plot. Jamie Osborne also has Eyes in this who has a good chance, but hopefully Zoolander is put into the race for his handicap debut. Market support before the off may be significant.
16th November Selection (2) – Renbawi 13-2 UNPLACED
2.40 Wolverhampton Monday – Renbawi 13-2 (1pt win) B365, Betfred, Boyles with 7-1 available BetVictor
I like the look of this race and the angle could pay dividends with this being a fairly weak race as far as maidens go. Lexington Fury has started his career well but he should be ridden with handicaps in mind today now on his 3rd start. The same can be said for Copake. Of the newcomers, Renbawi looks by far the most interesting and surely will be going off a lot shorter than 13-2. He is by Dubawi and his dam was a Group 3 winner (RPR 108). On top of that, he is a full brother to AW winner Global Hero (92) and half-brother to AW winner Meraas (107), making him very well bred. With De Sousa booked for his debut, I have no doubt they are expecting this one to run well. De Sousa also does well on Johnston’s unraced 2yos on the All-weather, with 25 wins from 113 rides (22.12%), showing a profit of 48.12pts to BSP. Mark Prescott is 0-21 with his unraced 2yos this year and amazingly none of them have even placed. The Al Maktoum runner doesn’t look like one of their superstars on breeding either and may not be that well regarded. Stall 10 is not helpful over 7f at Wolverhampton, so it should just be a case of being able to get out quick enough and going to the front. Risks attached with possibilities of green/keenness but this one should make into a decent horse in the future.
16th November Selection (1) – Aguerooo 18-1 E.W UNPLACED
8.30 Kempton Monday – Aguerooo 18-1 (0.5pt each way) most firms, all paying 1/4 odds but Skybet 4 places available at 1/5 odds. Coral, Lad and Boyles all best odds
This looks like a weak race for the grade and there are several runners here that will be fighting for the lead. Those include Trusty Rusty, Sir Rodneyredblood, Valentine Blues and Qaseeda, while others will also be wanting to race prominently. Consequently, it could be set up for the closers and despite not featuring in two starts at this track, Aguerooo looks overpriced. He actually does the best out of these lot on speed ratings based on his runs before the restart and we can easily forgive his recent reappearance at Chelmsford when never being put in the race. He has won 7 times on polytrack and looks very well handicapped today on a career low mark of 57. In addition, he tends to travel well into his races, especially at Lingfield. The longer straight at Kempton could suit his running style but there are reservations with his lack of racing at the track as a 7yo. Nonetheless, if he is on a going day he could feature in this and he has solid place claims at a minimum. Regardless of tomorrow’s result, I think he could be one to follow throughout the winter when returning to Lingfield.
14th November Selection (6) – Enzo 7-1 UNPLACED
5.00 Wolverhampton Saturday – Enzo 15-2 (1pt win) most firms
In what looks like a fairly evenly matched race, Enzo stood out from a pace perspective. There is only one obvious front runner here in Sands Chorus and I am expecting Enzo to go to the front out of the stalls. Despite a wide draw in stall 12, the 9.5f at Wolverhampton starts after the bend and therefore has a long straight – this should reduce the negative impact of a wide draw if we are able to get out fast enough. He showed a return to form over this course and distance last time out when running very well against the pace bias. Hold up horses finished 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th but Enzo managed to stay on for second place from a prominent position. That was a good performance considering how quickly it was run and today’s conditions should suit more. He has been backed in the market which is always a positive sign with John Butler – hopefully he can run well.
14th November Selection (5) – Shamshon 3-1 UNPLACED
8.30 Wolverhampton Saturday – Shamshon 3-1 (2pt win) most firms with 7-2 available B365
I can’t be having the favourite Smokey in this. He has won three very poor races, recently completing a hattrick in a 0-55 handicap. This is a massive step up in grade to a 0-70, so he would be an obvious lay for me. Having a look at the pace, there doesn’t seem to be a clear front-runner so Shamshon looks like a solid proposition from a good draw in stall 5. In contrast to Smokey, he steps down massively in grade and class from a 0-80 last time out. He still ran respectably behind Tathmeen and falls to a career low mark of 66 today, meaning we only have to give Smokey a mere 1lb. What looked interesting was that Stuart Williams has won this race for the last two years, with Richard Kingscote also riding both of those wins. In addition, Shamshon was the winner of this race two years ago off 9lbs higher and has also won over this course and distance off a mark of 85, which is a huge 19lbs higher. Having returned to form recently, he has fantastic claims of getting his head in front here if able to get a good early position close to the pace.
14th November Selection (4) – Arthur’s Angel 12-1 3RD
6.30 Wolverhampton Saturday – Arthur’s Angel 12-1 (0.5pt win only) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 11-1 the rest
I’m not quite sure how Marta Boy is favourite here and he should be a 13-2 shot for me. Love Of Zoffany and River Wharfe are the obvious picks but they were both expected to go one better last time out. Perhaps a bigger price will take this nursery and Arthur’s Angel looks worth a go given his ‘could be anything’ factor. He ran in a hot Class 4 stakes race on his debut and although finishing last of 12, he ran an eye-catching race against some very well bred horses. Then he had two quick runs last month, the first on soft ground and the last at Southwell. He was never put into either of those races, despite being heavily backed in the first time headgear last time out. His dam was quite smart (RPR 103) and was a winner on the All-weather, so he should appreciate the surface today. In addition, he has been gelded since his last run and Dark Angel progeny have profitable first time gelding stats. Interestingly, Probert rode a winner for John Ryan here in 2014 with another who was having their first run after a gelding op. The market should tell the story here.
14th November Selection (3) – Cityzen Serg 11-1 E.W WON
7.30 Wolverhampton Saturday – Cityzen Serg 11-1 (0.75pt each way) B365, Coral, Lad and Boyles all best odds and four places as advised, 12-1 available Skybet but 11-1 Betfred, Betfair, Paddy all paying 4 places
I tipped Cityzen Serg on his debut here when gambled from an advised 11-2 into 3-1. He got denied by a nose on the head bob to The First King, who has since won a Class 3 at Sandown (rated 87). The pair pulled 7 lengths clear that day, so it was a great introduction at this track. He failed to see out 10 furlongs on his next two starts, but his handicap debut at Chelmsford (3rd) has worked out very well relative to this race. The 4th Doubling Dice won her next two starts (now rated 87) and the winner Tenbury Wells for John Gosden won again NTO and is now rated 90. Considering Cityzen ran that off a mark of 82, he looks very dangerously treated off 10lbs lower today. He hasn’t been in the same form on turf on his last three starts, but if he is simply a better horse on the AW then he must be going close in this. With 4 places on offer, 11-1 looks to be a massive price and this extended mile should be his best trip. Hopefully he can stalk the pace on the inside from a good draw in stall 1.
14th November Selection (2) – Good Luck Charm 5-1 UNPLACED
12.10 Lingfield Saturday – Good Luck Charm 5-1 (1.5pt win) B365, Coral and Lad with 11-2 available Boyles all best odds as advised, but 11-2 general price most firms
Good Luck Charm is another one we have been on before, funnily enough the same card as Mr Mac in August and he looks the safest bet in this. His last three runs here read 221, with the win being over course and distance. He is also pretty much running off a career low mark of 53 today with Rhys’ useful claim taking 7lbs off. He only found one too good when finishing 2nd for us, but the pair pulled well clear of the rest (3.5l). We are running off 1lb lower today and I don’t see why he can’t go very close again from a good draw (3). Emerald Fox has been running in really bad races and is too short in the betting, while Rivas Rob Roy will probably need this run with his form reading 4900 when returning from a break longer than two months. The main danger would be Violet’s Lad if improving for the mile trip, but I am not fully convinced she wants it – despite a wide trip here last time, she didn’t really pick up that well in the straight. None of the remainder are really inspiring confidence at all, so 5-1 still looks like a decent price to me. It is possible he will go off bigger though.
14th November Selection (1) – Mr Mac 8-1 E.W WON
11.40 Lingfield Saturday – Mr Mac 8-1 (0.75pt each way) Coral, Lad and Boyles for best odds, with 9-1 available Skybet, 17-2 BetVictor and Betfred, 8-1 most firms with all firms 1/4 odds
Casaruan looks like a strong fav but I will take him on with a value each way play in Mr Mac. He loves it at Lingfield being a dual course and distance winner off marks of 59 and 62, but has placed off 68 and 63. We were on him at the start of August but he found the 7f insufficient when looking outpaced and then staying on at the finish – a step back up to a mile should see him in a better light. He races off 2lbs lower on a career low mark of 53 today and his runs for Simon Hodgson have been encouraging enough that he is still well treated. Rob Hornby is a good booking who is 7-43 (16.28%) for the yard on the All-weather, showing a good profit and brilliant A/E of 1.58. Mr Mac usually needs to be delivered right on the line, so a good handler will definitely help and there should be plenty of pace on for us with Kodimoor, Dancing Jo, Temujin and Misu Pete up there. As long as we don’t get a wide trip from stall 11, I’d be surprised if we didn’t hit the frame in this.
13th November Selection – Chocco Star 9-2 UNPLACED
4.15 Wolverhampton Friday – Chocco Star 9-2 (2pt win) General price with 5-1 available BV
A nice 0-60 handicap to get stuck into here and granted enough pace, Chocco Star looks the play. She is a consistent filly who tends to break slowly, but always runs her race to come from the back of the field. Despite only winning at Lingfield, she has shown a liking for tapeta when running well from miles back over the minimum trip here last December. On her reappearance in August, she also ran well over this course and distance when given an easy time to stay on from the back. Considering she wasn’t tried hard that day (4th), the race has worked out very well – Puchita (5th) has won twice since and is now rated 70, Kraka (6th) has won for us since (63) and Rogue Tide (7th) has improved markedly since, winning twice and now up to a mark of 72. Furthermore, she ran well last time out when given too much to do from a wide draw and goes down 1lb from that. Rusper’s Lad was the subject of a failed gamble here last time and it looks like they are trying all sorts of headgear to get him right, while Kaafy is now a 20 race maiden who always finds one or two too good. Turanga Leela should be winning at Wolverhampton soon but I’m not sure today is the day from a wide draw and competition for the lead. A Go Go is also better over 5f and on a steep mark now so the opposition doesn’t look like anything too special and the pace should be quick enough for us. Hopefully things fall right and Haynes can push the buttons a bit earlier to come with a late run.
12th November Selection (3) – Vivid Imagination 80-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.30 Chelmsford Thursday – Vivid Imagination 80-1 (0.25pt each way) Hills, Betfred, Coral, Lad and Boyles all paying 4 places as advised, with 90-1 available B365 (4pl)
I did think Ambarella would have a good shout in a race of this nature, but the track, draw and pace will most likely play against her. However, taking another look at the morning markets, Vivid Imagination should never be as big as this. We can forgive her debut and run last time out when reporting to run flat after only having three days break from her second run. She recorded an RPR of 63 at Newbury and has only been given an opening mark of 57. That looks incredibly lenient to me and she is drawn well to have place claims in this. With the price and four places on offer, I can’t turn this one down, although there is still a chance she won’t do anything. Hopefully a good day for Jamie Osborne.
12th November Selection (2) – No Day Never 3RD
4.30 Chelmsford Thursday – No Day Never 8-1 (1pt win) General price
There are a few at the head of the market that have been running respectable races in handicap company lately, but I think No Day Never could be underestimated with the best form here, despite carrying top weight. He started out in a very hot stakes race at Sandown which has worked out very well and he wasn’t given a hard time at all. Even though he finished a 12 lengths 11 of 16, he still had several improvers behind, including Magical Mile (reopposes today). In front, to mention a few he had Aquaman (8th, 82), My Swallow (6th, won next time out, 80), Tawaareq (5th, won NTO, 82), Mithras (4th, won this week, 84) and the top 3 have also all won since, being rated 114, 92 and 95 respectively. Second time out on the AW he ran well from the front to only get beat by odds-on Greatgadian and last time out was again in a hot race that has already started to work out well. Those last two efforts suggest a drop back to 7f will be of benefit and a return to the All-weather is also in his favour. It is yet to be seen what running style we will adopt here, but I am hoping Kelly sends him to the front from a good draw (6) like his second run. Win bet advised in an open race.
12th November Selection (1) Velocity 7-1 2ND / Tinchoo 8-1 UNPLACED
6.00 Chelmsford Thursday – Velocity 7-1 (1pt win) B365, Coral, Lad, Betfred, Boyles all best odds
6.00 Chelmsford Thursday – Tinchoo 8-1 (0.5pt win only) B365, BetVictor, Coral and Lad, 15-2 the rest
A lower grade nursery and again I will side with a handicap debutant with the most scope for improvement. Despite Eyes being an eye-catcher the last twice, her stablemate Velocity has been put into a handicap after only two starts. She was given an educational ride on her debut at Haydock when travelling strongly and being the last off the bridle. The race has worked out well too with several 70+ rated horses in front and she would have finished closer if ridden with more assertion. Last time out at Chepstow (4th), the front three were always going to be advantaged by racing prominently on the downhill finish and Velocity stayed with them for a long way until looking a bit outpaced late on. Nonetheless, she was over 7l clear of the rest and the 5th has since placed on both her next starts and even the 6th 15l back also placed NTO. It wasn’t an awful race at all and the front 3 all appear to have ability, with the winner Fabilis (92) contesting a Group 3 a month ago. Velocity is a half-sister to the smart Lady Prancelot and will surely be better than a mark of just 60. From a wide draw, she would need to get out quick to have a solid chance here but she has an entry at Wolverhampton on Monday, so they may well be planning a follow up if this pans out like they hope.
Tinchoo is also worth a saver bet in this. She will also appreciate the step up to a mile and has shaped with promise for Alan King, running against some much better horses than this in novices. Hopefully Tom Marquand can get her to the front and she gets in here off a very low weight.
9th November Selection (2) – Peruvian Summer 17-2 UNPLACED
8.05 Southwell Monday – Peruvian Summer 17-2 (1pt win) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, 8-1 elsewhere
Another fairly obvious angle that could be worth exploiting here – most of these at the top of the market have not proven themselves on fibresand and can be passed over. Moonlighting makes her AW debut for new trainer Roger Teal, however her jockey Michael Pitt is yet to ride a winner in 25 attempts and wouldn’t be one to put full faith in. Rhubarb has shown nothing so far with a peak RPR of just 41, Kupa River hasn’t taken to the surface in three tries and handicap debutants Pholas and Mostallim have a lot to prove, both dropping back significantly in distance. I can’t understand how course and distance winner Peruvian Summer is such a big price in this, with George Bass’ 7lb claim meaning we effectively run off only 2lbs higher than the C&D win last April. He powered 3l clear of the field that day and will surely appreciate a return to this venue. Bass is also in fair form of late (2-9, 22%) and PS has proven himself to be a better All-weather horse when winning at Newcastle as well earlier in the year. John Stimpson is a small trainer who only has three horses in training, but his two others have both looked to retain their ability. John hasn’t had a runner at Southwell for 7 years but was profitable to follow at SP and if the selection is near his best he should be a 5-1 shot for me. At the prices, we definitely have a value bet here.
9th November Selection (1) – Groupie 8-1 UNPLACED
7.35 Southwell Monday – Groupie 8-1 (1pt win) B365, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral, Lad and Paddy, 15-2 elsewhere
A few in here have got to prove they go on this surface and may be worth opposing. Little Downs has been consistent since going close for us in August but it looks like the handicapper has a hold on her now, having gradually pushed her up the weights. Handicap debutant Just Magic has beaten absolutely nothing in three starts and has a massive task returning from nearly a year off. Lexi The One is still a maiden after 14 starts and yet to show any appreciation for the All-weather, while Holiday Magic and Sommer Katze both ran poor races here last time. Despite Cape Greco rating the main danger as a course and distance winner, preference goes to Groupie, who showed significant promise on her penultimate run here over 6f. Denied a clear run from over 1f, she showed a good turn of foot in the final 100yds that has convinced me she goes on this surface. Although that was in a poor race, the winner Atwaar has won three times since. A step up to 7f will surely suit and she remains unexposed on fibresand. Last time out she also had traffic problems when getting cut up over 1f out and we can subsequently put a line through that. Returning from a year off may be of benefit to Groupie as opposed to a hindrance – two of her highest recorded career speed figures were both after coming back from lengthy breaks, backed up by improved RPRs. Dropped to a career low mark of 48 here, if fully tuned up, she could go well in this getting plenty of weight from the field.
7th November Selection (2) – Nurse Florence 7-1 UNPLACED
4.30 Chelmsford Saturday – Nurse Florence 7-1 (1pt win) most firms with 15-2 available B365
This is a low grade nursery but Nurse Florence has the best form on offer and is completely unexposed on an artificial surface for her handicap debut. First time out she showed good speed to finish less than a length behind Different Face (won since, rated 78) and less than two lengths behind Yazaman who is now rated 98 having contested a Group 2 behind Minzaal. Second time out she raced more prominently to finish behind Kool Moe Dee (won twice since, rated 82), Lockdown (75) and Deliver The Dream (82) and then last time out she had Atalis Bay 2.5l in front (won next three starts inc C2, 98) and the winner was 88 rated Night On Earth. Off this evidence you would expect Lady Florence to get an opening mark around the high 60s/ low 70s, so 64 seems exploitable despite giving weight to a few here. Apache Mist, Toptime and Chilli Leaves have all been running at a low level and Tapeten Toni has a lot to prove off his seemingly steep mark. If we can get close to the front out of the stalls we would have every chance of a win if taking to the surface, so I am just hoping Kirby doesn’t hold her up out the back.
7th November Selection (1) – Eaglesglen 9-1 E.W WON
8.00 Chelmsford Saturday – Eaglesglen 9-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 17-2 Skybet, 8-1 Coral, Lad, Boyles, Hills and Betfred all firms paying 4 places as advised bar BetVictor
A reasonably open race here but from a pace angle, prominent runners should be advantaged. With a slow pace on the cards, those likely to race prominently are Whatwouldyouknow and Eaglesglen. The latter beat the former over this trip at Wolverhampton by 3 lengths and only has to race off 3lb worse terms today. As a result, Eaglesglen looks a bet for me, having struggled to get home over 12f last time out in a better race than this. The form of his 3rd has also been boosted with Estate House (2nd) and Plansina (4th) both winning next time out and Traveller (7th) winning three times since. He gets a first time tongue tie and visor here which both could eek out improvement – Tom Clover is 2-9 when adding a first time tongue-tie and 1-8 (4 places, 50%) when adding a first time visor to his horses. There is a Godolphin runner in this but he was bred to be a sprinter – I’d be surprised if he gets home over this much longer trip. Bad Attitude and Essgee Nics are also going to be disadvantaged by being held up in this as well as Narjes, who would have an each way shout if getting closer to the front. However, Eaglesglen tends to break well and can go to the front out of the stalls. Hopefully Jack Mitchell can steady the pace and go very close here.
6th November Selection (2) – Lucky Lodge 28-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.30 Newcastle Friday – Lucky Lodge 28-1 (0.5pt each way) Betfred, Coral, Lad all best odds and four places as advised, 28-1 Skybet, Hills, Betway all four places with 33-1 available Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor (3 places)
I wouldn’t usually get involved in these kinds of races as you can make a case for a lot of these, but I couldn’t bring myself to leave Lucky Lodge at long odds of 33-1. He is a 5-time course and distance winner off marks of 60, 62, 66, 71 and 68. Despite being rated 72 today, Harry Russell’s claim effectively makes that 67 and he has every right to run a big race here. When winning over C&D in September, we beat Kind Review by 2 lengths and are only on 5lb worse terms today. As a result, the price differences of 33-1 and 6-1 make no sense and we look to have a lot of value there. We have been on Tathmeen the last twice now and although he could win this, he is much more proven as a 5f horse. It is possible they will save him for another day and go for the win on his stablemate who prefers this trip.
6th November Selection (1) – St Anne’s NR
8.05 Newcastle Friday – St Anne’s 9-1 (1pt win) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor
A reasonably open race here but the value play looks to be James Bethell’s runner. St Anne’s makes her handicap debut dropping back to the minimum trip and the way in which she shaped here (7th) over 6f in September suggests it’s a good move. She was always challenging from a prominent position but didn’t have anything in the closing stages. Nonetheless, that was against better horses than this and she wasn’t beaten far – Pivotal Decision (8th) placed next time out, King Of Stars in 6th won next time out and is now rated 77, the 3rd Burrows Seaside has won her next two starts and there were a couple of other 70-80 rated horses in there. St Anne’s makes her handicap debut today off just 55 which could prove to be very lenient. A stat worth noting is that James Bethell is 4-17 (23.53%, 2.44 A/E) when applying a first time tongue tie to his horses, with two of those wins at Newcastle. I love Ben Curtis at Newcastle and this one looks too big in the market. A win bet is advised in a competitive race – market support before the off would be encouraging.
4th November Selection (2) – Fortune Finder NR
4.00 Lingfield Wednesday – Fortune Finder 7-2 (2pt win) General price but B365, Boyles, Coral and Lad for best odds
There is a very interesting runner in this. Fortune Finder was sent off Evens on his debut for John Gosden in March but failed to trouble the leaders, clearly better was expected. His last run was in September following a 6 month break – it was eye-catching how he was dropped out the back but stayed on well to finish a head behind 75 rated Widaad. An opening mark of just 65 could seriously underestimate this colt, whose dam was a Group 3 winner and stayed 12f (RPR 106). The step up to 10f looks a great move and he remains unexposed for his new yard. If he is anywhere near the ability he was expected to have at John Gosden’s, he could well bolt up in this. There should be enough pace with those in the lowest two stalls likely to be pushed up to the front and I expect us to be sitting behind the pace. Hopefully it’s a good day for Hector Crouch at Lingfield tomorrow.
4th November Selection (1) – Pour La Victoire 20-1 E.W WON
12.30 Lingfield Wednesday – Pour La Victoire 20-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, 16-1 Skybet (5 places) all firms paying 4 places as advised bar Boyles
This is an open handicap in a reasonably large field, but given his course and distance record I will give Pour La Victoire another go. He ran no kind of race for us last time out at Wolverhampton but drifted before the off and was never going to win when pushed to the front halfway. However, he ran 3 consecutive solid races here in January and February off marks of 71, 71 and 70 in higher grades than this against better horses. He therefore looks to be on a very dangerous mark of just 60 now, with the cheekpieces that were left off since the January run now going back on. In addition, he generally has a liking for this track with a 60% place rate from 13 runs and being a dual C&D winner off 65 and 76 here. I do have a soft spot for Hector Crouch and I think he rides Lingfield well. It is unknown if the pace will be strong enough for us in this but there are several potential front runners so we should be fine. From a good draw (3), I am expecting a much improved run and I just hope age hasn’t caught up with him yet.
3rd November Selection (3) – Halfwaytothemoon 4-1 2ND
2.03 Southwell Tuesday – Halfwaytothemoon 4-1 (1pt win) B365, Betfair, Paddy, Betfred, Boyles all best odds but price widely available
Quite clearly this will be between the top three in the market and at the prices, Halfwaytothemoon surely looks like the value play. She is by Sea The Stars who has a good record with his progeny round here (14-48, 29.17%) and he actually shows a profit to SP which is encouraging that she will go on this surface, while John Gosden also does very well here (29-76, 38.16%). She missed the break badly on her debut at Kempton over a mile and was given an educational ride under Rab Havlin. Despite her 11 month absence, it could be possible that Gosden has her ready for this, wasting no time in stepping her up in trip to 12 furlongs. The market should tell the story here, with Haggas also doing very well at this specialist track. Nonetheless, this looks the best bet against a field completely unproven on fibresand.
3rd November Selection (2) – Dark Side Prince 9-1 2ND
3.33 Southwell Tuesday – Dark Side Prince 9-1 (1pt win) Lad, Boyles and Coral all best odds as advised with 10-1 available Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 9-1 Betfred
I am quite selective at Southwell but this looks like a good angle with low risk and high reward. Dark Side Prince showed absolutely nothing for previous trainer Charlie Wallis – a peak RPR of 1, yes 1, sums that up. However, he improved leaps and bounds last time out on his fibresand debut with a first time hood and cheekpieces. He was only 0.75l behind 70 rated Leapers Wood and 3.5l off 77 rated King Of Stars on level weights with both of those, the trio 5l clear of the rest. Recording an RPR of 63 there, his new mark of 50 makes no sense whatsoever. He looks very well handicapped on this surface if that run was not a fluke and remains unexposed in the headgear and on the surface. Jessica Macey is a new trainer who has only had 7 runners but hopefully she can get off the mark today in this very weak 0-55. Only 3 of these have previous experience on the surface and two of them are out of form. A win only bet is advised as there is a chance this won’t do anything, but he should only have to reproduce his last run to go very close here.
3rd November Selection (1) – Love Of Zoffany 10-1 E.W 2ND
4.45 Newcastle Tuesday – Love Of Zoffany 10-1 (1pt each way) Coral, Boyles and Lad all best odds and 4 places as advised with 12-1 available B365 (3pl), 10-1 Hills and Betfred both four places, 10-1 BetVictor 3 places
An open nursery here but the best form by far belongs to Love Of Zoffany. Like many handicap plots he has only had one run of interest in novices so far. That was in a very hot Class 4 event (7th) where Fanning didn’t go for the whip once. The three in behind him have all improved next time out and the 3rd and 4th have both won since, recording good RPRs in the process. The 2nd also finished a 4l 7th in a Group 3 next time out and the winner looks a smart prospect for John Gosden. Two runs either side of that can be forgiven on debut and then heavy ground last time out. An opening mark of just 59 following those runs seriously underestimates this colt, who is related to Zacinto (Group 2 winner, RPR 118) and Banbury (96), with his dam also being a 7f winner (100). It is interesting William Buick has been booked for his AW debut too. Mark Johnston is 16-72 (22.22%) with 2yo handicap debutants on the All-weather having had all prior runs on turf, showing a profit and positive A/E of 1.34. We should try to make the running in this and although a few in here have chances, I think the selection could quite easily be a 70+ rated horse and therefore at an each way price, this rates a pretty solid bet.
2nd November Selection (4) – Tathmeen 7-2 2ND
6.50 Wolverhampton Monday – Tathmeen 7-2 (1.5pt win) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor
It should come as no surprise given his last run that I am giving Tathmeen another go today over the minimum trip on tapeta. Slowly into stride from a wide draw, just about everything that could go wrong went wrong here last time out. He raced keenly after switching left and then repeatedly got denied a clear run when switching wide – I have no doubt Villiers had tons of horse under him. Now another pound lower, he remains on an extremely dangerous mark for Anthony Brittain over the same course and distance. We get an extra 3lbs from Prince Of Rome despite only finishing 1.25l off him when we would have beat him comfortably with a clear passage. Reassure also reopposes here and she had every chance on the inside so can be passed over quite easily in this. Of the rest, Outrage probably rates the main danger but we are getting a stone from him and our Newcastle 5f wins were run in much quicker times. The only thing stopping us winning this is a bad or unlucky ride as I am certain this one will go in very soon. It remains to be seen if the pace will be quick enough but we should have enough class to win this regardless.
2nd November Selection (3) – Get Boosting 3-1 WON
7.20 Wolverhampton Monday – Get Boosting 11-4 (1.5pt win) B365, Betfair and Paddy, 5-2 the rest
My eyes were glued on Tathmeen when watching his last run back but having watched it again, Get Boosting almost had the same degree of unluckiness from the rear too. He also continuously got denied a clear run and ran on well when briefly in the clear inside the final furlong. He gets another pound off here and clearly looks like another winner in waiting. We obviously should have finished in front of Duke Of Firenze last time and can take him on again granted more luck in running. Mutabaahy doesn’t particularly look well handicapped for Brittain and needs a career best now up 2lbs for his 2nd LTO. Again, similar to Tathmeen the pace doesn’t look strong, however given the way in which he travelled here two weeks ago it shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance, although Alsvinder looks most likely to go forward out of the stalls. Hopefully Mullen can find the gaps this time.
2nd November Selection (2) – Cafe Sydney 9-2 3RD
7.50 Wolverhampton Monday – Cafe Sydney 9-2 (1.5pt win) Coral, Lad, Betfair, Paddy, Betfred, BetVictor, Betway and Boyles with 5-1 available B365
It is possible this will also be run slowly and although usually held up towards the rear, I am hoping now Tom Marquand is on from a better draw, Cafe Sydney can be placed closer to the pace for Tony Carroll. She ran well over this course and distance last time out when getting denied a clear run, but made ground up on the leaders when in the clear. That was a higher grade (0-65) than this 0-55 handicap and most of these look limited in ability. Stronger handling from 1lb lower could be the key to Cafe Sydney who placed 2nd here off 4lbs higher in June. Ros’s Dream remains unexposed for Ali Stronge but was no match for Flying Standard who disappointed on Thursday. It is hard to recommend much else here and I think this one is ready to win soon – also worth noting that Marquand is 3-7 for Tony Carroll in the last fortnight and profitable to follow from 319 rides for him. Tony also has two in the first race, but Marquand doesn’t ride either. Perhaps his best chances are later in the evening.
2nd November Selection (1) – Windsorlot 9-1 UNPLACED
8.20 Wolverhampton Monday – Windsorlot 9-1 (1pt win) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy
Quite a few of these look closely matched on ratings, but from a pace angle it could be wise to side with Windsorlot. This looks likely to be slowly run and the selection could go well in this if adopting a similar ride to last time out. Under Brett Doyle, Windsorlot was slow away but rushed up to lead after a furlong. I thought he then had no chance when soon quickening the pace to go 5 lengths clear of the rest of the field. However, he somehow managed to battle on for a 1.5l 3rd place, despite using up significant energy reserves in the first half of the race. That confirmed that he is well handicapped off this kind of mark and the booking of Tom Marquand should aid in forcing a more truly run race dictating slower fractions. The only other possible front runner here is Lady Of York, who is better at Chelmsford – we may have to settle for tracking her but regardless, if the pace is slow enough we should be on top turning for home and LOY is drawn on the outside of us in stall 12. As long as we are able to start well enough, we should be going very close in this.
31st October Selection (2) – Dubai Elegance NR
5.30 Wolverhampton Saturday – Dubai Elegance 5-1 (2pt win) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy
This race really should be between the top two in the market and I seriously do not understand the opening price differences. Dubai Elegance only got beaten half a length by Luscifer last time out over this course and distance – now giving 1lb less it doesn’t make sense how she is a 5-1 shot against a 13-8 favourite. There is no pace in this at all and we will benefit from getting to the front early from a good draw in stall 1, whereas Luscifer will be disadvantaged by the slow pace and wide draw (10). Holdenhurst is a sprinter and is risky at this trip, while Josiebond is a turf horse who only won off a very low mark of 46. I can’t make a case for anything else in here, so at the prices Dubai Elegance rates a strong bet for me, having her price down as being 9-4 in my book.
31st October Selection (1) – Purple Paddy 10-1 E.W UNPLACED
6.00 Wolverhampton Saturday – Purple Paddy 10-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfair, Paddy, Betway all paying four places as advised, 10-1 Betfred and BetVictor, 9-1 Skybet and Hills both 4 places
As opposed to our first selection, this race has plenty of prominent runners and the pace should be strong. I did think Purple Paddy was a big price on his tapeta debut last time out but I thought he’d be saved for a return to Kempton. Nonetheless, he ran a great race from off the pace to only get beat by recent improver Rogue Tide, although he was getting a stone in weight. That confirmed he goes on this surface and conditions look set for another big run today. Fivehundredmiles has only won at Chelmsford and tends to struggle off this kind of mark. Parknacilla is making her tapeta debut and has claims if taking to it but I could never have Lafontaine – despite the champion jockey booking she looks limited in ability and the handicapper hasn’t given her any chances lately. The rest don’t look good enough and can force a strong pace to set it up for the closers. 10-1 is a big price as I’d have us around the 5-1 mark here and I’d be very disappointed if we didn’t finish in the top four.
29th October Selection (4 and 5) – Social City/ Arietta UNPLACED
8.00 Chelmsford Thursday – Both 0.5pt each way
Social City 11-1 Coral, Lad and Betway both paying 4 places, 5 places available Skybet
Arietta 11-1 most firms
4 places advised with both horses Coral, Lad, Hills, BF, Pad, Betway, Boyles
Most of these can be almost immediately ruled out of contention. Bird To Love and Calvinist both beat nothing in their wins last time out and can be taken on from wide draws in this. Those with the best claims of going close at their respective prices are Pax Britannica, Arietta and Social City. The former won over 2f shorter at Lingfield recently but faces a different task now at Chelmsford where it is much harder to come from behind. Arietta showed a good turn of foot to kick clear over 2m at Wolverhampton last time and has solid claims back in trip getting plenty of weight as a 3yo. However, you can’t go wrong with a course and distance winner and Social City looks well overpriced in this. He won here in January off only 4lb lower, but did it pretty cosily to beat Cheng Gong by 2l who has won twice since. His 4th at Wolverhampton in August was also a better grade than this and he went close off 2lbs higher here in March either side of two 68 rated horses. At the top of the handicap, Social City looks to be the best horse here and the booking of Adam Kirby is eye-catching. He is 30-199 (15.08%) for Carroll, showing a profit of 65.69pts to BSP. Considering he should be a 5-1 shot, this looks like a good value bet.
29th October Selection (3) – Azets 13-2 WON
4.15 Lingfield Thursday – Azets 13-2 (1pt win) B365, Skybet, Betway, Coral, Lad and BetVictor, 6-1 the rest
This is a pretty competitive race for the grade with a few in here who may not be running over their ideal trip. Sprinters Come On Girl and Daring Guest both step up from 6f and have a bit to prove in that sense. Three C’s can get caught out here as he is better over a mile on polytrack and the possible slow pace may play against most of these hold up performers. Azets however, often tracks the pace and has some good form coming into this. His 3rd at Kempton last month has worked out very well with the 2nd Rogue Tide winning twice since (now rated 72), the 5th Tie A Yellowribon won next time out and Cashel has also won since. Azets went very close over the mile here last time out and a drop back to 7f may be what he needs. We get one of the more experienced claimers in William Carver and if able to get a good position early on from stall 5, we should run a good race.
29th October Selection (2) – Farewell Kiss 13-2 UNPLACED
7.00 Chelmsford Thursday – Farewell Kiss 13-2 (1pt win) General price
We were on Farewell Kiss last time over 7f and today she attempts a mile for the first time. I think she may be underestimated in the market as she shaped like she would appreciate this trip at Kempton – tracking the leaders, she lost her position 2f out but rallied back into 4th when looking like she was about to get eaten up. Two in here with doubts at the trip are Kodimoor and Rockesbury. They both step up significantly from 6f and although the latter has stayed the trip a couple of times, he is definitely a better horse over shorter and Kodimoor is a poor 0-10 on the All-weather. Those two can battle it out for the lead and I think they can set it up for the closers. Pope Gregory took a step forward here last week but it remains to be seen if the cheekpieces can have the same effect and his starting price of 12-1 suggests he probably wasn’t expected to win – a 4lb rise asks another question. The remainder would need a leap of faith to get involved in this, so from a good draw (2) Farewell Kiss rates a solid bet if relishing the new trip. As long as she has no excuses today, she won’t be getting another chance after this.
29th October Selection (1) – Reponse Exacte 11-2 3RD
6.30 Chelmsford Thursday – Reponse Exacte 11-2 (1pt win) Betfred, Betfair, Paddy all best odds
Lady Morpheus has a habit of being slow away and she can’t afford to do that again in this likely slowly run affair today. She was running in an awful race last time and can be taken on now racing off 2lbs higher. Another worth opposing is Zayriyan – he is a 31 race maiden and that is enough to make me immediately look past him. Cristal Pallas Cat could get an easy time out in front but simply hasn’t shown enough to suggest he will be back to winning ways anytime soon. I like the look of Reponse Exacte for John Mackie. It was only 11 months ago she was running in a 0-80 over course and distance off 20lbs higher when recording a career best speed rating. Her effort here over 7f 3 weeks ago confirmed a desire for this mile trip when staying on behind now 75 rated Highfield Princess (won since). Last time out at Wolverhampton she travelled very well and was going best turning for home, but couldn’t find the gaps at a crucial stage which cost her the race. Running off the same mark here, she should be going very close if able to sit behind the leaders. Noble Queen could be a danger if well backed but otherwise hasn’t shown anything of significance so far.
28th October Selection – Willingly 28-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.45 Kempton Wednesday – Willingly 28-1 (0.5pt each way) General price bar B365, Skybet 4 places
I don’t usually like these kind of races but this is a bad race for the grade. Uzincso only just got up in a lower grade than this last month and races off 2lbs higher. Capriolette has been consistent without winning but shapes like she needs further than this. Bobby Wheeler is still unproven at this trip and hasn’t even been getting home over 7f. Dark Phoenix needs a career best now looking badly handicapped with an inexperienced rider and Albadr also looks to be on a high mark. As well as that, Tip Top’s opening mark of 66 is incredibly harsh having only recorded a peak RPR of 57. Preference is for an overpriced outsider in Willingly for Mark Usher. She gets loads of weight and only finished 4.5l off now 85 rated Lights On at Newbury off level weights. On her penultimate run she showed a liking for this track when staying on over C&D in a Class 4 which was a tougher race than this. Off just 57 here we could have a bit in hand and with the cheepieces back on, she just needs to put a line through her run at Chelmsford last time out. 28-1 is a silly price and she could run into a place at the least here.
27th October Selection – Sea Of Mystery 4-1 UNPLACED
7.50 Southwell Tuesday – Sea Of Mystery 4-1 (1pt win) B365 and BetVictor
This staying apprentice handicap shouldn’t be too competitive and Thawry is worth taking on at a short price. He gets another 6lb rise and half a mile in trip without winning last time and that leaves him vulnerable. Preference is for Sea Of Mystery, who won for us over course and distance here in December when drawing 3.5l clear of the field. That win was run 6 seconds quicker than Londonia’s C&D win in February and we were carrying more weight. Since then he has been running respectably in handicaps, last time in a higher grade behind a David Simcock improving 3yo. There should be enough pace for us here with Lucky Robin and Urban Spirit up front – the latter has recorded figures of 00 on fibresand and he quite clearly hates it. Navajo Star is the only other who could trouble us but we beat him last time and he failed to get home over the 2m here on his only attempt. 4-1 is a more than fair price in this with an experienced claimer in George Rooke doing the steering.
24th October Selection – Alchimista 11-1 UNPLACED
6.45 Chelmsford Saturday – Alchimista 11-1 (1pt win) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy
Small fields tend to be easier to work out and this one doesn’t look like anything special, especially considering all of these bar one are trying the new trip for the first time. The Rocket Park is the only runner proven at 14f but John Berry is an appalling 0-35 at Chelmsford – he can be taken on giving a 7lb weight for age allowance to the 3yos and having not taken to the All-weather on his only start. Red For All and The Cincinnati Kid ran against each other last time but neither of those would be obvious contenders at this new trip based on their breeding. As a result I will give Alchimista a go on her handicap debut for David Simcock. She hasn’t shown too much but gets a big step up in trip today from 10f to 14f and could be anything considering two of her novice runs were on soft ground. She was bred to be a stayer being a half-sister to Alemagna who was also trained by Simcock and stayed this far. There are other winners in her pedigree who won over classic trips so this is encouraging of a better showing on her first attempt at the distance. Simcock also does well here at Chelmsford (66-372, 17.74%), showing a profit to BSP and a positive A/E of 1.1. Being one of the outsiders and getting plenty of weight, she rates a fairly good bet in this and should never be as big as 11-1.
23rd October Selection – Attaboy Roy 10-1 E.W 3RD
6.30 Newcastle Friday – Attaboy Roy 10-1 (0.75pt each way) Coral, Ladbrokes and Boyles with 11-1 available B365 all four places and best odds as advised, 10-1 Skybet, Hills, Betfred and Betway also all paying 4 places
This is a poor quality for a nursery and it is worth siding with a bigger price considering the top three in the market have got the worse of the draw in stalls 1, 2 and 3. Attaboy Roy was sent off a very short 5-2 on debut at Hamilton (9th). He wasn’t given a hard time and was only pushed out once failing to respond to a single hit of the whip – perhaps better was expected. The race has worked out well relative to this too – Broxi in 8th has won twice since and is now rated 94, Two Cop Boy (7th) has won since and now rated 74, Boogie Time in 3rd is now rated 76 having won next time out, the 2nd Burning Cash also won NTO and is rated 101, while the winner is now rated 82. The selection was then gelded and never put into his races on his next two starts. However, he still bodes well on the speed ratings in this and he should have enough pace over the minimum trip from a good draw (12) on his tapeta debut. David Barron is 2-11 and 5 places with his handicap debutants on the All-weather (all at Newcastle) having had 3 prior runs on turf and the booking of Kevin Stott is also encouraging of a better run, being an upgrade on Robbie Downey. I think we can go close here as David’s only runner of the day – market support before the off would be significant.
22nd October Selection (3) – Global Acclamation 11-2 E.W UNPLACED
4.40 Wolverhampton Thursday – Global Acclamation 11-2 (1pt each way) B365, Coral, Lad and Boyles all best odds as advised but price widely available with 6-1 available Skybet (4pl) and BetVictor
We have been on Global Acclamation a couple of times now and with George Rooke’s 5lb claim, we run off the same mark as both of his C&D 2nds in August and September. In August we were incredibly unlucky to be denied on the line by Simply Sin, pulling 6l clear with him. I have left GA alone since with his 5lb penalty as I suspected he would find a couple too good which he has. When 2nd here last month he was only a length off Bartat who has gone in again since and his form is also starting to stack up with his 2l 7th at Chelmsford last time out. He had Frow just in front (won twice since and will probably win again today), while Vincenzo Coccotti in 2nd and Rockesbury the winner have also both won next time out. We run off 6lbs lower than that today in a race that is seriously lacking in pace. As a result we should be able to get close to the front early on and have a dream trip. Peachey Carnehan will be disadvantaged by the slow pace and despite booking William Buick, Poppy May is almost impossible to fancy from a wide draw. I’d be very surprised if we didn’t finish in the first three today and we have solid claims of taking this granted a good start.
22nd October Selection (2) – A Day Of Mischief 16-1 E.W UNPLACED
7.15 Wolverhampton Thursday – A Day Of Mischief 16-1 (0.5pt each way) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, 14-1 Boyles, Skybet (4pl) and Betfred
Another open 2yo nursery here but we have been doing well in them lately. I thought a couple in here would lack the pace for the minimum trip having been staying on well over 6f – those include Hemmsa and Patsy Fagan. At long odds I will give A Day Of Mischief a go, who clearly improved leaps and bounds for the switch to an artificial surface and the application of cheekpieces last time out. Recording a decent RPR of 69, she just lacked an extra gear in the closing stages, but finished behind 74 rated Eastern Delight (placed NTO) and a couple of other well bred horses. She also recorded a decent speed figure that should see her appreciate this drop to 5f from a good draw (2). Harry Dunlop has found some form with a 15-2 winner yesterday and 16-1 neck 2nd on Tuesday and he has place claims with his only runner of the day here.
22nd October Selection (1) – Reset Button 20-1 E.W UNPLACED
4.59 Chelmsford Thursday – Reset Button 20-1 (0.5pt each way) Coral and Lad best odds and 4 places as advised with 22-1 available B365 (4 places), 20-1 Skybet, Hills and Betfred also all 4 places
It’s been a while since I did a long odds speculative pick, but I couldn’t leave this one given what I have found. Reset Button has had three quick runs in less than 3 weeks, all over 7 furlongs. He sat out the back on debut at Kempton and was only ever being ridden out under hands and heels. The form wasn’t appalling either, with Benin placing since, now rated 72 and several other 70-80 rated horses in front. He made no impression again on his second start in a race that has worked out well and again was simply allowed to drop out the back at Chepstow last time without even being asked to quicken up. He makes his handicap debut up in trip to 10f off an extremely low mark of just 47 today. Having then had a look at his brothers, Lady Reset, also trained by David Evans, won easily on her handicap debut having been unplaced in 3 novice runs. Let’s Go Lucky also trained by David Evans won on her handicap debut too, having been unplaced in all her first three starts. You can see the pattern emerging here and with Tom Marquand jocked up, I am hoping the trend can continue today. Plenty of these are facing the new trip for the first time having been running over a mile and it’s hard to find many that you’d be confident want this step up in trip based on breeding. He could do nothing here but at long odds I will take that chance from a favourable draw.
21st October Selection – Grey Sparkle 10-1 E.W WON
4.40 Kempton Wednesday – Grey Sparkle 10-1 (0.75pt each way) Hills and Skybet both paying 4 places (advised), 12-1 available B365, 10-1 Betfred, Betway, BetVictor, Coral and Lad, 9-1 Betfair and Paddy both 4 places
A few in here are making their handicap debut with a bit more scope than the rest. Peerless won a very bad race last time and I’d be taking him on all day with a penalty from a wide draw. Relative Choice seems to be better over 5f as she struggled over 6f here last month and Anjella hasn’t progressed still finishing 6l behind Peerless at Bath last time. A chance is taken on the less exposed Grey Sparkle for Charlie Hills – she gets an opening mark of just 56 following a couple of encouraging runs in maiden company. On debut, she was green back in 9th, but the 11th has placed twice since (rated 71) and the form of those ahead of her has also worked out very well. She had Time Scale in 7th, a subsequent listed winner and 1l 4th in a Group 2 (rated 102), Happy Romance in 6th (won 3 times since inc Group 3, 106), Wings Of A Dove 5th (rated 83), Sardinia Sunset 2nd (won Listed race since, 91) and the winner was thrice Group 2 placed Sacred (108). The selection sat out the back last time but stayed on steadily – this looks much more suitable today and at an each way price, she is worth a play for an in-form yard and rider.
20th October Selection (5) – Alianne 17-2 UNPLACED
8.10 Kempton Tuesday – Alianne 17-2 (1pt win) BetVictor and Skybet, 8-1 Coral, Lad, Betfred, Betway, Boyles
An open race here but I couldn’t have the market leader at her current price. Solar Cycle ran well on soft ground at Windsor two months ago but the form of the race hasn’t amounted to anything special. An opening mark of 70 looks tough and her yard is usually in better form (3-30, 10%). While a few in here have got chances, I will side with Alianne who ran a stormer at Wolverhampton two runs back. She got hampered after getting close to the front early on, causing her to lose position and settle in midfield. Once she tried to make her run over 1f out, she got cut up again but still managed to run on into a 2.5l 3rd. As a result that effort can be upgraded and it suggests this extra furlong at a galloping track may suit her better. It was also behind 78 rated Goddess Of Fire and 89 rated Alpine Mistral, who has now notched up a 5th win since July. I am happy to draw a line through her last outing at Chelmsford, as hold up horses often underperform there and she had a very wide trip. Although drawn out wide today, it may be less of a hindrance with the less undulating nature of Kempton’s track and we may be able to get across early and see her stamina come into play.
20th October Selection (4) – Sarayaat 10-1 UNPLACED
4.40 Newcastle Tuesday – Sarayaat 10-1 (1pt win) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, 9-1 Skybet
This is a speculative selection to an extent, but by no means should she be a double figure price. Sarayaat showed her best run to date for previous trainer Fanshawe last time out at Wolverhampton. She stayed on behind 68 rated Aramis Grey, 73 rated Cotai Again and 78 rated Freedom Flyer, making her opening mark of 60 look to be on the lenient side. She was bred to be much better than what she has shown so far, being a half-sister to 6 winners including listed winners Scoville and Skagen (both RPRs of 100). She has her first run for new stable George Scott today who is going great guns lately (4-11, 36%). This is also his only runner of the day at Newcastle, sending her on the 4hr journey up north to a track he is profitable at. He has booked course specialist Ben Curtis who is 8-26 (30.77%) for the yard, showing a profit of 39.09pts to BSP for an impressive 1.41 A/E. The selection gets first time cheekpieces on her first run after a windop and all of those signs are potential sources of improvement in this incredibly weak 0-60 handicap.
20th October Selection (3) – Katherine Place 6-1 UNPLACED
4.35 Kempton Tuesday – Katherine Place 6-1 (1.5pt win) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, 11-2 available Skybet, 5-1 Coral, Lad, Boyles and Betfred
In a race with several turf horses, I was surprised to see Katherine Place as big as 6-1 early doors. Nibras Again is 0-11 on the All-weather, unplaced in all of his last 8 starts on the surface. Secretfact has won once on the AW in 10 starts, but that was on tapeta while he is unplaced in all three starts on polytrack. Bezzas Lad is 0-5 on AW and again prefers tapeta, Our Oystercatcher is unplaced in 3 AW starts and Pull Harder Con is 0-5 on AW, with all of those runs off much lower marks. As a result I have landed on course and distance winner Katherine Place who should have the early pace to either get the lead or sit prominently. She recorded a career best speed figure and RPR at Lingfield behind a horse on a hattrick last time out and that confirms she is in good heart. Today, she gets capable 7lb claimer Rhys Clutterbuck onboard, making her effectively run off 57 here and well handicapped considering she has placed off higher marks. Granted a good start, we look the one to beat.
20th October Selection (2) – Arcadian Nights 17-2 WON
5.35 Kempton Tuesday – Arcadian Nights 17-2 (1pt win) Ladbrokes and Coral with 12-1 available B365, all best odds as advised, 17-2 Hills, Skybet and Betfred
This is an open nursery event, but the early price on offer for Arcadian Nights was too big given his chances here. He has had two quick runs in the space of 10 days over insufficient sprint trips. On both occasions he was outpaced but stayed on at the finish in some fairly hot events. The last run has already been franked with the 4th coming out and winning since while he was also behind several 80-90 rated horses on debut. He was certainly bred to be better than this mark of 64 being related to a total of 7 flat winners, with RPRs ranging from 89 up to 115, with four of those being over 100. 6 of those were also winners at a mile or further, again enhancing his claims on this big step up in trip today. The booking of Oisin Murphy is another positive who is 9-48 (18.75%) for the yard, showing a profit of 31.18pts to BSP. There are several other potential improvers in here such as Star Of Epsom, Sim Card and Heat and Dust, so a win bet is advised at what appeared to be very favourable odds.
20th October Selection (1) – Al Ozzdi 9-1 E.W 3RD
4.10 Newcastle Tuesday – Al Ozzdi 10-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfair, Betfred and Paddy, 9-1 Coral and Lad all four places as advised, 9-1 Skybet
I’m sure you will all remember we were on All Ozzdi at Wolverhampton on Saturday when he should have won. He was denied a clear run repeatedly from over 1f out under what I considered a very poor ride. We have the same jockey today but I couldn’t believe the opening price of 10-1 and the southerly winds forecast at Newcastle today will favour hold up horses. A strong pace is looking likely and we get in off the same mark here. Finally Mine looks like the biggest danger on paper having recorded an RPR of 74 last time out, but he was suited by racing prominently on the slow ground at Musselburgh, with the first 3 racing up with the pace – he encounters different conditions here for a yard out of form (1-45, 2%). We have form that ties in with Top Attraction and Traveller today. We finished a length behind Come On Linda on Saturday giving a stone to her (should have finished way in front) but she finished close to both Traveller and TA here last month off very similar weights. Off that evidence we look well off today, only giving 2lbs to Traveller and 7lbs to TA. I’d be disappointed if we didn’t hit the frame here, as he is a 4-1 shot in my book.
19th October Selection (4) – Tathmeen 7-2 UNPLACED
6.30 Wolverhampton Monday – Tathmeen 7-2 (1.5pt win) Coral, Lad, Betfred and Boyles
It’s fair to say Anthony Brittain has got his horses very well handicapped at the moment (7-19, 37%) and I am sure Tathmeen is a winner in waiting now returning to the tapeta. His mark has dropped 12lbs in 7 unplaced runs on turf since June and back at Wolverhampton, he could be chucked in. His record over the minimum trip on tapeta reads 131681633261311 with those wins coming off respective marks of 70, 72, 69, 71, 75 and 77. As a result, he looks very well treated today, especially with Angus Villier’s claim meaning he effectively runs off 68. Angus is on fire lately too (4-17, 24%) and has an outstanding record for Anthony Brittain. He has 5 wins from 11 rides, 10 of which were placed and a record of 21122 for Brittain at Wolverhampton. He produces a profit of 29.58pts to BSP and a fantastic A/E of 2.19, showing the pair massively exceed expectations. In addition, Tathmeen is well clear on the speed figures here and based on his run against Prince Of Rome in March we are now on 20lbs better terms, despite beating him by 2l that day. The only hindrance to our chances today is the likely slow pace, but I am hopeful Angus will send him forward out of the stalls and race a bit more prominently. Nevertheless, his class should be enough for a very good run here and he is certainly one to keep an eye on.
19th October Selection (3) – Kyllachy Dragon 9-2 2ND
5.30 Wolverhampton Monday – Kyllachy Dragon 9-2 (1.5pt win) B365, Betfair, Paddy, Betfred, Boyles all best odds
Kyllachy Dragon is a difficult one to win with, but there are several reasons to suggest he can record a second career win today. Firstly, conditions look to suit with a slow pace on the cards and we can track Dors Toyboy in this. There are plenty wanting to be held up and they will struggle to get a strong enough pace here. The selection has also been struggling to get home over a mile, usually finding one or two too good and being weak in the finish. A return to 7f today can help him from a prominent position and he gets a strong handler in Tom Marquand who can drive him out to the line. In December and January he placed here on both occasions (2nd and 3rd) off respective marks of 65 and 63 and it is definitely worth noting that on both of those runs he was drawn widest of all (13 of 13 and 12 of 12). As a result, he had to do a fair bit of work to get to the front from a wide trip and he won’t have that problem today in stall 3. He gets in off a career-low mark of 57 which makes him very well handicapped, especially when considering the extra couple of lbs difference the lower draw could make. He was heavily backed into 9-4 favourite at Southwell last time out but was out the back and never put in the race – we can draw a line through that while still accounting for the possibility that better was expected. Mark Rimell hasn’t had a winner for a long time but Kyllachy Dragon has no excuses today and I expect him to go close if getting to the front early on.
19th October Selection (2) – Red Gunner 6-1 UNPLACED
8.00 Wolverhampton – Red Gunner 6-1 (1pt win) B365, Betfair and Paddy all best odds
We were on Red Gunner last time out at Chelmsford and it was one of the worst rides I have ever seen. He was held up on his own in last, switched right and ran into the back of horses on two occasions and then ran on strongly from a wide trip when finally in the clear. That run confirmed he is in good heart and he does go well at Wolverhampton too being a course and distance winner off only 2lbs lower and he has placed off 8lbs higher. The only worry here is the extreme lack of pace with no confirmed front runners, although plenty will want to be prominent. It is possible he will be saved for another day at Chelmsford so a win only bet is advised in the event of the race falling apart. Having said that, if they are going for the win today 7-1 is a big price. Hopefully we are not right out the back like last time as that would not be good for our chances.
19th October Selection (1) – Trusty Rusty 14-1 E.W 2ND
5.00 Wolverhampton Monday – Trusty Rusty 10-1 (0.75pt each way) Coral and Ladbrokes best odds as advised, 9-1 B365, with 11-1 available Betfair (4pl), Paddy (4pl) and BetVictor, 10-1 Skybet, Hills, Betfred and Betway, 1/4 odds 3 places advised
This looks to be seriously lacking in pace, with the vast majority of these being hold up horses. Although she makes her All-weather debut and has a question mark to answer on this surface, I like Ron Harris at this track and with the pace angle a chance is taken on Trusty Rusty. She ran her best race to date when pulling over 6 lengths clear with Stopnsearch at Lingfield last month to only go down by a nose. It was a good performance against a 69 rated horse and you can forgive her last run on soft ground – her starting price of 8-1 after that career best performance suggests she wasn’t expected to take to the ground and it showed. Passing Nod has improved recently since switching to hold up tactics, so it is likely they will go for the same again. Frow won a bad race for us last time and this is more of a challenge in different conditions. Of those potentially racing close to the pace, Spring Romance failed to get home over 6f here the last twice and Don’t Joke has done nothing this year. I think if we can get the lead we should be going best turning for home and hopefully the pace will be run to hinder the chances of those coming from the back. We must have place claims at a minimum and Daniel Muscatt has very good stats when adopting a front running style of racing.
17th October Selection (2) – Al Ozzdi 7-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.30 Wolverhampton Saturday – Al Ozzdi 7-1 (0.75pt each way) General price
I remember this horse well as we managed to beat him on the line with stablemate Zodiakos on the first race since the restart in June. Al Ozzdi is consistent on a tapeta surface and similarly to Merweb drops into a 0-60 from a 0-70 at Newcastle last month when he only finished 3.5l off the winner, who is now rated 70. He ran well here in February and March, placing on both occasions off higher marks, again both in higher grades. This field doesn’t look like anything special with some unreliable types in Come On Linda (maiden with 3lb penalty), Strong Steps (winless on AW for over 4 years) and Baaashiq who prefers the polytrack at Kempton. We are running off top weight but should be the best horse in this and I am hoping we can stalk the leaders. Roger Fell has also found a bit of form lately and we should be hitting the places at a minimum here.
17th October Selection (1) – Merweb NR
4.55 Wolverhampton Saturday – Merweb 9-1 (1pt win) General price with 10-1 available BetVictor
I like Ron Harris at Wolverhampton, especially when seeing some money for his horses in the morning. Merweb has dropped 8bs in three runs for his new trainer and it’s quite obvious O’Neill was riding to tire him out here last month – he pushed him into an unnecessary 4l lead which saw him unsurprisingly weaken inside the final furlong. That was a much hotter 0-70 compared to this 0-60 and this is the first time the selection runs in a Class 6. The change of jockey to Richard Kingscote is also encouraging of a better run and having previously placed here off a mark of 71 two years ago, he looks dangerous on a career low mark of 62. Rogue Tide has an 8lb penalty to contend with and the way he travelled into the race at Newcastle last time could suggest he prefers that track. Laurentia also has to defy a penalty and she has been racing at a low level here. The rest are pretty inconsistent so a chance is taken on Merweb. Hopefully the money continues to pour as we wouldn’t want to see a wild drift before the off – a win only bet is advised.
16th October Selection (2) – Firsteen 4-1 UNPLACED
8.30 Newcastle Friday – Firsteen 4-1 (2pt win) Betfair, Paddy, B365, Betfred, Boyles all best odds with 9-2 available BetVictor
This is another poor 0-55 handicap and given her effort last time, it’s hard to look past Firsteen. She was travelling so well from the back but was denied a clear run repeatedly until just over 1f out and then stayed on when only being slightly pushed out. She somehow gets a 2lbs drop for that and the use of capable 7lb claimer Oliver Stammers means she’s actually running off 9lbs lower. As a result she is now even better handicapped than she was over this course and distance last time out and as long as they are going for the win today, she won’t have any excuses. We are on 8lb better terms with Deolali and I have no doubt we should have finished in front of him LTO, while Starbo beat nothing when behind Eldelbar last time and amazingly both have to give us weight here. Having placed off a mark of 60 over this C&D before and with plenty of pace on the cards, we really should be winning this.
16th October Selection (1) – Placebo Effect 8-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.25 Newcastle Friday – Placebo Effect 8-1 (1pt each way) Coral and Lad both four places with 17-2 available B365 (enhanced place 4pl) all best odds as advised, 8-1 4pl Betfred, 8-1 3pl Skybet and BetVictor
I like the make up of this race and as I often do, I will side with the highest rated here in Placebo Effect. He is a course and distance winner off 67 with two more respectable efforts off 66 and 59. He didn’t get the trip here last month but the move back up to a mile as well as dropping to a career low mark of 55 should see a much improved showing. This is a big drop in grade from a 0-65 to a 0-55 and most of these have been running to an extremely low level of late with the next best being rated just 50. It may be worth noting that he was sent off 4-1 here on his penultimate start (first after a wind op) having not shown much previously – perhaps better was expected. The headgear comes off which was interestingly left off for the course and distance win two years ago and racing prominently can play to our advantage here with a slow pace looking likely. The top 3 in the market have been racing against nothing and their jockeys are the likely cause of their short prices, so I’d have ours around a 7-2 shot here and can’t see him outside of the places.
15th October Selection (4) – Roundabout Magic 17-2 E.W UNPLACED
4.50 Lingfield Thursday – Roundabout Magic 17-2 (0.75pt each way) B365, Hills and BetVictor
This is another we were on last time and I have no doubt they were not too bothered about going for the win that day as Hollie didn’t start riding until a furlong out. Tom Marquand was originally booked to ride but got sick, so there was a last minute jockey change. Hollie would know you can’t leave it that late at Lingfield from the back and it didn’t surprise me to see Roundabout Magic finish like a train into 3rd, only being pushed out. This is a higher grade but we are getting loads of weight from the field and he clearly loves it here, being a 7-time course and distance winner with a 54% place rate from 26 runs over C&D. Once again, there looks to be tons of pace on the cards and surely connections will be going for a win today with conditions to suit. There are a few other C&D winners in here with some top jockeys racing at Lingfield today but I am hopeful Hollie can assert her dominance to come with a late run from the back.
15th October Selection (3) – Naflah 8-1 UNPLACED
5.00 Chelmsford Thursday – Naflah 8-1 (1pt win) Skybet, BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred, Betway and Boyles with 9-1 available B365
This one is a similar train of thought to State Occasion yesterday, looking like a standout pick on form grounds. Naflah ran to a good level on debut (5th) behind some smart prospects. The 3rd Monsoon Moon bolted up against us next time out for John Gosden (RPR 93) and the 2nd Last Sunset went off favourite in a Class 2 NTO, although ultimately disappointing. We were outpaced but staying on steadily on our last run with the 5th Sayyida placing NTO and 2nd Haija going off favourite in a Class 3 NTO. A step up in trip to 10f could see a much improved run on her handicap debut and these don’t look like anything special. The form of Thunderstone’s runs hasn’t amounted to anything of significance and the use of 7lb claimer William Humphrey suggests this is probably not one of Crisford’s most exciting handicappers. You can say the same for Chase The Dream, whose form has completely gone the wrong way. Eagle’s Realm has a lot to prove for out of form Sir Mark Prescott and Naflah certainly looks the best of Hannon’s two runners, despite giving weight to the field. I can’t understand the drift this morning having the best form and being the least exposed here. 8-1 looks massive to me so I am just hoping they are going for a win today.
15th October Selection (2) – Zhukovsky NR
8.30 Chelmsford Thursday – Zhukovsky 8-1 (0.5pt each way) BetVictor with 17-2 available B365 both 4 places as advised, 7-1 Hills also 4 places
This is a bit of a punt but Zhukovsky should only have to reproduce his last run to win this. He was the only one to come from the rear when staying on strongly over the 7f here last month, recording a career best speed rating in the process. The winner and 2nd have both gone in since to boost the form too. It may be that the first time visor did the trick but blinkers go on today and they should have a similar effect. A step up to a mile may be suitable given how he ran last time out and the booking of capable 5lb claimer Ray Dawson (3-19) gives us a bit of a weight advantage. We have two market leaders drawn out wide in Sonnetina (14) and River Sprite (13) – the latter can easily be opposed having won at 50-1 last time out. The favourite was withdrawn before the off and it was an extremely poor race, I’d be shocked if she followed up. Cashel may be a non-runner having raced yesterday and we are now on 5lb better terms with Zahirah, so I think we should be hitting the frame here at a minimum.
15th October Selection (1) – Terri Rules E.W UNPLACED
4.20 Lingfield Thursday – Terri Rules 15-2 (0.75pt each way) Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred and Betway with 8-1 available Betfair and Paddy all firms 1/4 odds
I mentioned this one before her last outing as maybe needing the run on her return to Lee Carter’s yard and that certainly looked the case when staying on from the back under hands and heels riding last time out. Terri Rules drops another 2lbs to a career low mark of 47 and the booking of Hollie Doyle is also encouraging of a return to form. She ran well in four consecutive runs here from November to January off marks of 56 and 57 so she looks very dangerous now, especially with it looking likely she will be better back with Lee Carter. Physics is the only one here with a recent win to their name, but he beat nothing last time out and the tongue tie that was left off goes back on. He also has a wide draw (12) and 5lb penalty to overcome. Brain Barr hasn’t had a winner for about 460 days and I can’t see a reason to back anything else in this apart from Holding My Breath who is unexposed on this step up in trip. This rates a solid each way bet for me with an experienced rider doing the steering.
14th October Selection (4) – Twittering 14-1 E.W UNPLACED
8.30 Kempton Wednesday – Twittering 14-1 (0.5pt each way) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor all four places as advised, rest 12-1 all four places
14th October Selection (3) – State Occasion 7-1 WON
6.30 Kempton Wednesday – State Occasion 7-1 (1pt win) General price but B365, Coral, Lad and Boyles for best odds
I can’t remember the last time I had a bet in a Class 4 event but on form grounds, State Occasion looks the best horse in this. On debut at Ascot, she had Creative Flair 3 lengths behind who won next time out (RPR 88). The 7th Light Refrain has also won since (RPR 89) and was a neck 2nd in a listed race last week. She had two more Godolphin runners in front – the 4th Renaissance Rose won next time out (RPR 82), Isle Of May won since (rated 82) and the winner Zabeel Queen was placed in a Group 2 (rated 102). On her second start she had Light Refrain in behind again with the winner Nazuna also placed in a Group 2 last month (rated 104). She couldn’t justify favouritism last time out but still ran well behind an improver and her breeding suggests she will be much better than this mark of 78 – she is a sister to 5 winners, four of which recorded RPRs over 100, including full sister Forest Of Dean (116). I am hoping the switch to Polytrack can do the trick at this galloping track and Beckett does well here with an 18% strike rate producing a profit of 198pts to BSP. King Tiger, Miami Joy and Tornadic are all last time out winners but their form does not stack up compared to ours and I am backing Hollie Doyle to get the selection off the mark today.
14th October Selection (2) – Farewell Kiss 6-1 E.W 4th
8.30 Kempton Wednesday – Farewell Kiss 6-1 (1pt each way) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, 11-2 Skybet and Betway all paying 4 places as advised
8.30 Kempton Wednesday – Twittering 14-1 (0.5pt each way) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor all four places as advised, rest 12-1 all four places
This is another weak 0-55 with a couple of course and distance winners but I will side with Farewell Kiss who remains unexposed on the step back up to 7 furlongs. She won over this trip at Wolverhampton when having to wait for a gap having been forced back into midfield. As expected, she couldn’t follow it up when dropped back in trip last time out at Chelmsford but with the booking of 5lb claimer Ray Dawson today, we actually get in off 2lbs lower than the win last month. She tends to break fast from the stalls and we are drawn well in stall 2 today to stalk the leaders on the inside. I am wary of Hollie Doyle riding Fuwairt but he has been very disappointing and I can’t see any reason to suggest he will be the subject of a gamble here, I think he just underperforms. Itmakesyouthink is probably the main danger with My Law, but we have a bit more scope as a 3yo and can improve back at 7f. Twittering can go well at an each way price having shown a liking for this track and returning from a 3 month break is no bad thing – he could be allowed to dictate out in front and has place claims.
14th October Selection (1) – Frow 11-2 WON
8.00 Kempton Wednesday – Frow 11-2 (1.5pt win) B365 and BetVictor, 5-1 Betfred and Betway
We were on Frow last week and although he travelled well enough, I still can’t understand why Jason Hart switched him out to a wide trip when we had a good position. Kempton will surely suit his running style better in terms of quickening off the pace and this is a drop in grade to a 0-55 event. Interestingly, David Brown has booked Joe Fanning for his two runners this evening. However, True Hero has a big step up in trip in the following race which I simply don’t understand considering he barely gets 5f – Frow must be his better chance of leaving with a winner and he does well here with 9 wins from 64 runners (14%) +78.37pts BSP. Red Bravo bolted up on the grass last time out but he is unplaced in 10 All-weather starts and can be taken on here. Joyful Dream is also 0-31 on the All-weather and Cashel doesn’t look anywhere near as good as he used to be at this track. The rest are uninspiring and we are getting plenty of weight in this so I am going to give Frow another chance to get off the mark for his new trainer considering how weak this is.
12th October Selection – Pour La Victoire 11-1 E.W UNPLACED
7.30 Wolverhampton Monday – Pour La Victoire 11-1 (1pt each way) Skybet and BetVictor, 10-1 Betfair, Paddy, Betfred and Betway
Pour La Victoire is a two time winner for us with wins at Brighton on 2nd September in both 2018 and 2019. The most recent of those was aided with a stablemate for a pace setter in Fieldsman and I am hoping Tony Carroll will adopt similar tactics with his other runner Winnetka today. We clearly have the better jockey booking of Brett Doyle over 7lb claimer Mollie Philips and on his Jan/Feb All-weather form, he looks very well handicapped here. He was competitive in Class 5 events at Lingfield off marks of 71, 71 and 70 when placing twice at the start of the year in much better races than this. Since the restart, he has had three runs out the back over sprint trips, never getting anywhere close to winning under Elisha Whittington. Today, he steps back up to a much preferred 7 furlongs and returns to Wolverhampton where he has a consistent profile with form reading 2352212. It is worth noting they were off respective marks of 48, 53, 53, 65, 65, 73 and 72, so he looks on a dangerous mark of just 63 today, having dropped 5lb in the weights since his last run at Bath. Granted, other than his stablemate, there doesn’t look to be loads of pace but I am fairly confident he has been lined up for this and as a result, I would expect Doyle to position him closer to the leaders. I can’t quite work out how Poet’s Magic is favourite as a 16-race maiden returning to the All-weather and there are lots of other inconsistent types in this. Hopefully we can hit the frame here and this rates a fairly solid bet for me.
10th October Selection (2) – Frow 5-1 3RD
4.45 Chelmsford Saturday – Frow 5-1 (1.5pt win) B365, Betfair, Paddy, Betfred and Boyles all best odds
Bartat improved for the new trip last time out and remains unexposed over 7f, but there is another that you can say the same for at a bigger price. That goes to Frow, who was the subject of a gamble on three consecutive runs for his new yard on the turf in August and September. However, he massively disappointed in each of those runs. Sent off long odds of 33-1 on his All-weather debut over this course and distance last month, he ran a very encouraging race stepped up in trip for the first time and recorded a career best speed rating. From the back of midfield, he made smooth headway over a furlong out, but got denied a clear run for a reasonably long period of time, before running on once the gap appeared. He had the opposing Zahirah just a neck in front, but she got first run well in advance and had no excuses from a better position throughout the entirety of the race. Today we get a 6lb swing with that rival and as a result we look well handicapped to go very close. Jason Hart is an upgrade from Joey Haynes and Hart does like it here at Chelmsford, with 12 wins from 73 rides (16.22%) showing a positive A/E of 1.13. Rochford can be easily taken on, especially considering Henry Spiller noted the reason for his improved form last time out being partly due to the switch to turf. Getting tons of weight from the field, we should go well here.
10th October Selection (1) – Broughton Excels 9-1 E.W 3RD
7.30 Chelmsford Saturday – Broughton Excels 9-1 (1.5pt each way) B365 and Betvictor, 15-2 Hills, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (all 4places), 15-2 Skybet (3 places)
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that I am backing Broughton Excels again at his favourite course and distance. We were on him two runs back when he got completely cut up on the inside rail – once the chance had gone Donohoe didn’t bother trying to ride out for a place and pretty much stopped moving. I left him last time over a furlong further when he confirmed that he is still in good heart, just weakening at the finish but showing a turn of foot in the process. The handicapper has been kind in dropping him a further 2lbs to 52, meaning we are now on 11lbs better terms with Vencenzo Coccotti based on the 6f run last month. In addition, we get one of the best jockeys riding at the moment in Hollie Doyle, who should be better at avoiding traffic problems and give us the best chance of winning possible. This should be run quick enough for us today, with Rockesbury, Rocketeer, Montys Inn, Middlescence and Indian Pursuit all likely forcing the pace up front. Physics can be taken on here at a new track with a different jockey, wide draw and 5lb penalty. The tongue tie that was left off for his win last time out also goes back on here so he shouldn’t be favourite for me with the question marks to answer. Grandma is another drawn out wide and yet to show any clear signs of winning ability, while Rockesbury may have hit his ceiling in the handicap now. I think we are a 9-2 shot in this, so at the prices, Broughton Excels rates a strong 1.5pt each way bet for me here and I’d be disappointed if we didn’t go close.
8th October Selection (4) – Kraka 11-2 WON
5.10 Southwell Thursday – Kraka 11-2 (1pt win) B365 and BetVictor, 5-1 the rest
There are only three in here with real chances for me. Bernard Spierpoint is an unexposed 3yo and his dam was a triple fibresand winner, but he doesn’t look like a winner in waiting. Lucky Beggar has run well here previously, but that was over two years ago and he was only racing against a bunch of sub-50 rated horses last time out and goes up 2lbs. Kyllachy Dragon is a big question mark at this trip and he didn’t run well on his sole visit here. His trainer Mark Rimell also hasn’t had a winner for over 1000 days bar his yard specialist Magic Mirror and Stott is 0-48 at this track. One that is well handicapped and has proven form here is Kraka. He has a 100% place rate here in three runs off marks of 71, 66 and 64, so he looks very dangerous today off just 58. The visor that was on for one of his wins replaces the cheekpieces and with the negatives surrounding his rivals, he is a bet for me here at 11-2.
8th October Selection (3) – Rommel 7-2 2ND
6.30 Chelmsford Thursday – Rommel 7-2 (1.5pt win) BV, Betfred, Boyles with 4-1 available B365
This should quite clearly be between the top 3 in the market and Baba Reza looks the least tempting of those. He has been running consistently but hasn’t matched the form of Rommel or Henrik and can be passed over from the widest stall. The latter deserves to be favourite but perhaps not as short as 8-11 – despite finishing 2nd to a subsequent Group 3 winner, the horses in behind haven’t confirmed the form as much as you would like, now being rated around 65 to 75. He has to prove himself back on the All-weather from the 2nd widest stall. At the prices, preference goes to Rommel under Tom Marquand. He starts well and can get an early lead on the others from a favourable draw (3) here. Despite looking a bit exposed now, he has been running to a good enough level in higher grades to have claims of taking this. He ran well over a mile from the front at Kempton behind next time out winner Recovery Run (rated 88) and the winner Dingle is now rated 86 too. The form has further substance as the 4th, a whole 12 lengths back, also won next time in a decent Class 3 event and is rated 85. A drop back in trip on a track that favours front runners can play to his strengths and he has also notched up some decent speed figures. I’d have him closer to around 9-4 here so hopefully Tom can get the best out of him.
8th October Selection (2) – Theheartneverlies 3-1 UNPLACED
7.30 Chelmsford Thursday – Theheartneverlies 3-1 (2pt win) general price
The 3yos get a hefty 9lbs weight for age allowance in this staying handicap over 2 miles and Theheartneverlies has been on my radar since being stepped up in trip. As a whole, he has been a massive disappointment, finishing unplaced in all 6 starts with only a peak RPR of 51. However, he was clearly expected to be much better. Middleham Park’s webpage on him states ‘you could make a ready case for suggesting this fabulous colt is just about as well-bred a horse as we have ever purchased as a yearling’…’the pedigree oozes, not just black type and Group performers but champions amidst the Group 1 winners moreover’ and ‘there are a total of 13 Group and listed winning horses in this colt’s pedigree that were trained by Sir Mark himself. He knows this outstanding family, fabulously well’. Last time out he made the running at Newcastle over 10f (very difficult to do) but was again outpaced and made no impression at the finish. Today, he gets his big step up in trip and runs off a mark of just 51. As a result, we are getting a ridiculous two stone from the 2nd favourite Vexed and Luke Morris regaining the ride is also indicative of a much better run. Furthermore, it could be seen as significant that he has an entry at Wolverhampton on Monday, potentially looking to follow up quickly before a penalty kicks in. If this is as much of a plot as it looks, he could make a mockery of this field and run up a sequence of wins. However, due to the lack of promise shown on the track so far, a win only bet is advised as there is a chance he will not live up to his pedigree and expectations.
8th October Selection (1) – Hammer Gun 8-1 UNPLACED
6.45 Southwell Thursday – Hammer Gun 8-1 (1pt win) general price but B365, Coral and Lad for best odds as advised
This a competitive handicap hence the win only stake, but long time favourite Hammer Gun, a 2pt winner for us in March 2019, looks to be lurking on an extremely dangerous mark returning to his favourite track today. His record at Southwell reads 111414714213341152 with wins off marks of 58, 64, 75, 76, 79, 84, 73 and 78 respectively and today he gets in off just 67 following a couple of poor efforts on turf. As long as he can put those efforts behind him, he could have up to a dozen pounds in hand today and his 67% place rate here means he very rarely runs a bad race. There are several other course specialists but we look the best handicapped here and have won off much higher marks than the rest, so let’s hope Hammer has been saving his best work for today.
7th October Selection (5) – Talking Point 7-2 UNPLACED
5.40 Newcastle Wednesday – Talking Point 7-2 (2pt win) B365, Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor, 10-3 available elsewhere
As far as nurseries go, I’d say this is one of the easier ones to pick apart as only a few are in real contention for me. Loweswater went into my tracker after her last race when denied a clear run, but having rewatched it, she didn’t pick up that well once in the clear and she is drawn on the wrong side of the track again today. John Butler isn’t known for his 2yos and his last 2yo winner was nearly 3 years ago while Favourite Niece didn’t beat much last time out and will find this tougher drawn in stall 1 with out of form Tom Eaves (1-34) now onboard. The clear pick for me here is Talking Point. She came on for her debut (sent off 4-1) when staying on over this trip at Kempton from a wide draw in a hot Class 3 event (5th). The form of that race has so far worked out very well in relation to the level of today’s race. In behind, Late Morning placed next time out (RPR 78) and John Gosden’s Tawahub won next time out (RPR 84). She also had the now 74 rated Eastern Delight just over a length in front (placed NTO) and the 2nd Shine For You also won next time out (rated 81). That is serious form that should put the selection right at the top of the market and James Tate sends just this one 4 hours up north today. He is 5-15 (33%) / 1.23 A/E in 2yo only handicaps at Newcastle when it is his only runner of the day at the track and Hollie Doyle can get the best out of her. If this is fancied as much as she should be then I’d have her around a 9-4 shot to take this.
7th October Selection (4) – Mercers 14-1 E.W UNPLACED
8.30 Kempton Wednesday – Mercers 14-1 (0.5pt each way) Betfair, BetVictor, B365 and Paddy, 12-1 the rest
This is pretty competitive and a few have solid chances, but at an each way price I am hoping Mercers can redeem herself when missing the break and running into 2nd for us last time out. She is clearly in good form and will enjoy this step up in trip to her preferred 6f. Jason Watson has won four times on her off marks 57, 55, 56 and 55 respectively, one of those over this course and distance, although she is a dual C&D winner. As a result, she looks very well handicapped on a career low mark of just 48 today and I am hopeful there will be enough pace in this for her to come from the back. Swanton Blue and Rockesbury are respected in their pursuit to follow up their recent wins but the selection looks a much better value bet. Terri Rules may be one to keep an eye on, but she has only had a week back with Lee Carter and may be one for next time after he has got a run into her. If we can sit slightly more prominently from a favourable draw (2) then I can’t see why we won’t go very close here, but there are reservations about breaking slowly. We have strong place claims here at the very least.
7th October Selection (3) – Newmarket Warrior 15-2 E.W UNPLACED
4.40 Newcastle Wednesday – Newmarket Warrior 15-2 (0.75pt each way) general price with 8-1 available BetVictor, all firms 4 places as advised bar B365
Newmarket Warrior tends to show his best work in autumn and the prices do not reflect his chances relative to Blazing Dreams accurately at all today. When the pair met last time out two weeks ago, BD had the advantageous high draw whereas NW was disadvantaged by being in stall 1. The selection gets the highest stall today which will aid his cause and he is actually now on 3lb better terms despite beating BD a head LTO. His big price is likely a result of his trainer’s poor form and the fact that she hasn’t had a winner here for nearly 700 days. However, Jardine has had a long string of 2nds lately and his runner rarely runs a bad race here with a 44% place rate from 33 runs. Rogue Tide improved LTO but Loughnane doesn’t do too well here (3-74), so he is worth opposing. Of the rest, Athabasca could go well now fit based on his run here a year ago and she remains unexposed. It is yet to be seen if the pace will be strong enough for us but at an each way price, Newmarket Warrior looks a solid option.
7th October Selection (2) – Elusive Artist 9-4 WON
6.15 Newcastle Wednesday – Elusive Artist 5-2 (2pt win) B365 and BetVictor, 9-4 Coral, Lad, Betfred, Boyles
After two runs, Elusive Artist goes straight into a handicap for Mark Johnston. Although no match for the winner, he came on for his debut when finishing 2nd at Chelmsford last time out, recording a good RPR (67) that should make him the best horse in this race. The 4th Legendary Day has placed 2nd since and the winner looks like a smart horse for Alan King. We should make the running today over the same trip and our stamina can play a big part in this as he will surely get further in the future being related to multiple 10f winners. Waitingonanalibi is the main danger having won over this C&D last time out, but she didn’t beat much and is drawn on the far side again. Can Can Girl could go well each way but we have the most scope for improvement here and this stiffer test on a straight track should suit.
7th October Selection (1) – Pearl Of Qatar 11-1 E.W UNPLACED
6.45 Newcastle Wednesday – Pearl Of Qatar 11-1 (0.75pt each way) Coral, Lad and Boyles best odds as advised, 10-1 B365 with 12-1 available Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor all firms 1/4 odds
I was surprised to see this course winner open a double figure price across the board and she represents some nice each way value. Pearl Of Qatar has been running over sprint trips and bolted up over 6f here a year ago off 3lbs lower, recording a good RPR in the process (68). Since, she has been looking outpaced and/or staying on over the same trip and her breeding also suggests she will get this 7f trip. Phil Dennis, who won on her last time, gets the ride back and he is on fire lately with 8 wins from his last 24 rides (33%) – he also rode a big odds treble at this track recently and is 2-4 for Davidson here. The selection gets a first time hood and is starting to look well handicapped off 60 considering we can forgive her last run on heavy ground. There looks to be enough pace to set it up for us and hold up horses have been performing very well over the 7f and mile trip at Newcastle in the last couple of weeks. Great Colaci does go well here but he beat nothing last time out and I think he is definitely worth opposing in this higher grade.
6th October Selection (3) – Thermal 11-2 WON
4.40 Lingfield Tuesday – Thermal 11-2 (1.5pt win) BetVictor, Betfred, Betway, Boyles, Coral and Lad, 5-1 the rest
Since being sold out of Martyn Meade’s yard, Thermal didn’t show much for Gary Moore in her first couple of starts, but has taken a big step forward the last twice in amateur rider handicaps. At Kempton she stayed on strongly from the back (3rd) in a higher grade than this. She confirmed that promise last time out (2nd) behind a stablemate when again having no problems staying on at the finish in a much better race than this (0-70). That RPR of 57 entitles her to be favourite in this and she should only have to run to the same level with a better handler now onboard. Rhys Clutterbuck is a capable 7lb claimer and means we actually get weight from a few market rivals. Most of these have been running at a much lower level and if Gary has got the selection ready, we could take this in convincing fashion. I am hopeful we will go forward and be up with the pace, as it looks likely this will be a slowly run affair.
6th October Selection (2) – Capla Dream 2-1 UNPLACED
5.50 Southwell Tuesday – Capla Dream 2-1 (1.5pt win) B365, Coral, Lad, Betfred, Boyles with 9-4 available Betfair, Paddy and others
This should be between the top two in the market and I can’t understand why Capla Dream isn’t much closer to Final Voyage in the market. She was outpaced from a wide draw on debut here over 6f, but proved she handles the surface well when staying on very strongly to take 3rd and recording a great speed figure in the process. She has every right to come on for that and should relish this step up in trip. Final Voyage has notched up some good form but I can’t be having an 8-13 favourite making their fibresand debut in a small field. We also get a hefty 12lbs from him so I’d have the prices at 11-10 Final Voyage / 11-8 Capla Dream. I doubt the Prescott debutante will get involved as she will need a lot further in the future.
6th October Selection (1) – Roundabout Magic 12-1 E.W 3RD
4.10 Lingfield Tuesday – Roundabout Magic 12-1 (1pt each way) B365 and BetVictor, 10-1 Coral, Lad, Skybet and Betfred
This 7-time course and distance winner gets his ideal conditions today with Tom Marquand (won twice with him) back on board. Roundabout Magic is a Lingfield 5f specialist and there looks to be tons of pace on the cards for him to come with a late run. Despite a lower grade, he won very easily when forced wide off the bend here in July to get up under hands and heels riding. His last two runs can be forgiven over 6f and at Chelmsford and he subsequently runs off just 2lb higher than that cosy win. As a result he is still well handicapped having won off higher marks here and this is clearly Dow’s and Marquand’s best chance of a winner today with Beat The Breeze looking more hopeful than confident in the following race. The selection has a 52% place rate over this C&D from quite a large sample of 25 runs, so the price on offer looks a great each way option and he has claims to make it 8 wins here.
5th October Selection (3) – Mr Nutherputt 18-1 UNPLACED
5.55 Wolverhampton Monday – Mr Nutherputt 18-1 (0.5pt win) General price with 20-1 available Betfair and Paddy
This one has been on my radar lately and although this is speculative, a few factors hint towards a possible gamble here. Mr Nutherputt was stepped up in trip in handicaps but has failed to get home in both outings – he certainly wasn’t bred to stay beyond a mile and drops back in trip today. He also gets 4lbs off and an additional 5lbs with Pierre-Louis’ claim, which may tempt connections into a gamble if the horse has the ability. A first time visor is indicative of a better run – William Knight is 3-6 (50%), 3.57 A/E when applying a visor to his horses for the first time at Wolverhampton, with winners at 11-1, 7-2 and 3-1. This is also Knight’s and Pierre-Louis’ only runner of the day, so there are certainly reasons to suggest this one can go a lot better than expected. I am hopeful we will sit handy from a good draw (2) and that the pace won’t be too fast, as most of these are closers. At long odds I will give him a chance.
5th October Selection (2) – Edge Of The Bay 6-1 UNPLACED
4.15 Wolverhampton Monday – Edge Of The Bay 6-1 (1pt win) B365, Coral, Lad and Boyles all best odds as advised, 13-2 available Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor
I know these horses well and although two runs back I would have never picked this one in a million years, she looks to have improved and stands a good chance today. Edge Of The Bay ran well in a classified stakes race at Lingfield behind Mercers when staying on very strongly from the back, despite looking a bit awkward. That tells me she has developed a turn of foot and she showed her versatility when pulling 4 lengths clear with a decent horse on the turf last time out from the front. That was a good speed figure for this race and the winner Brenner Pass had previously finished either side of multiple high 60-rated and 70-rated horses, as well as next time out when still running respectively in a Class 5. She has been penalised up to a mark of 55 back in a handicap, but is clearly a better horse and Tyler Heard’s 7lb claim can count for a lot here, effectively bringing her down to 48. Qaaraat’s recent improvement is likely due to running at 6f, so he could find a couple too good again back at the minimum trip, while A Go Go has only won off 51 twice and again could struggle now off 55. We had Captain Ryan last time who has place claims at a price, but the rest are not very inspiring. Hopefully Tyler, who won for us over this C&D on Capla Spirit last month, can produce another well timed ride from stall 2.
5th October Selection (1) – Hy Eales 14-1 UNPLACED
5.20 Wolverhampton Monday – Hy Eales 14-1 (1pt win) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 11-1 Skybet, 10-1 widely available
I’ll side with a less exposed 3yo in this where plenty have low strike rates. Hy Eales easily ran her best race to date on handicap debut over this course and distance. Her jockey had to take a bit of a pull but she stayed on very well to only go down by half a length behind the re-opposing Berkshire Philly. A first time hood could work wonders if having the desired effect and we get an extra 1lb pull with BP. I can’t understand the money for Blue Whisper as he has loads to find on form, while Amor Fati hasn’t won for over a year and doesn’t tempt at all. Never Said Nothing needs to follow up with a career best from a wide draw and Sonnetina has been hit with a 3lb rise without winning last time out. Jane Elliot isn’t one to put massive faith in, but we should race prominently from a decent draw here and 14-1 looks a big price to me. A win only bet is advised as this is slightly speculative, but only a small improvement on her last run is required to take this.
3rd October Selection (2) – Shalanez 11-4 2ND
5.55 Wolverhampton Saturday – Shalanez 11-4 (2pt win) Coral, Lad and Boyles for best odds, 5-2 B365 with 3-1 available Hills, Betfair, BV and Paddy
I thought Shalanez would have a squeak on her debut in what was a very competitive race at this track. She ran respectably running into 2nd late on and connections have wasted no time in stepping her up beyond sprint trips. She was certainly bred to be smart, being a half-sister to Spectre (Group 3 winner, RPR 116) and the Hannon trained Mambo Nights (RPR 102). I have no doubt she will come on for her debut taking on the boys today as she gets a 10lb pull with the Godolphin runner who went off 9-1 when winning last time out. Although that win has been very nicely franked, at the price I am willing to take him on as he may be ridden with handicaps in mind. Bin Suroor isn’t in great form lately either (2-25, 8%) and the booking of 5lb claimer Cherchi also suggests this might not be one of his best in the yard. Ibn Arabi is another with a chance but again might be one for handicaps having his third run for George Scott. Batraan needs to take a step forward for Roger Varian but has claims to do so. Hopefully a good day for Thore and Richard Hannon.
3rd October Selection (1) – Headshot 4-1 WON
5.25 Wolverhampton Saturday – Headshot 4-1 (2.5pt win) Coral, Lad and Boyles for best odds as advised, 7-2 B365 but 4-1 general price
I’m sure you will all remember this from last time as anyone who watched the race would have seen how unlucky we were. Heavily gambled before the off, Headshot was continuously denied a clear run when travelling on the bridle from over a furlong out. He could have won had he found the gaps at the right time. I am hoping not many people watched the replay back, as on paper it looks like he hasn’t achieved anything, but this horse could be seriously ahead of his mark. Thore gets the ride today and takes another 3lbs off and over a furlong further this rates a strong bet for me. We have the opposing Gypsy Boy to our left who was also gambled last time, but we get an 8lb weight swing once jockey claims have been accounted for and I think we should appreciate this extra distance more. Mister Allegro won impressively at Kempton last month but failed to back it up last time out and has another 4lbs on his back from a wide draw. Jamie Osborne’s runner Eyes we were also on last time and could go well at an each way price, but I’m not letting Headshot get away here.
2nd October Selection (3) – Ambassador 22-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.20 Newcastle Friday – Ambassador 22-1 (0.5pt each way) B365, Betfred, Betway and Boyles, 20-1 the rest all 1/4 odds
This is an open handicap but we could have an interesting angle to exploit here. I like to side with hold up horses beyond a mile at Newcastle and the pace should be quite strong in this. I Can’t Remember will try to lead again – he dictated a very slowly run race last time and drops back in trip which looks an odd move. Breakfast will also likely try and make the running with other prominent runners also in this. Mcalester’s opening handicap mark of 72 looks very steep with only a peak RPR of 62 in novices and Guvenor’s Choice may struggle over this far. Preference is for tracker horse Ambassador, who although has been off the track for nearly a year, has claims to go close on his handicap debut. He was bred for this trip and has been looking outpaced over shorter trips in novices. He gets a step up in trip today on his first run after being gelded – Invincible Spirit progeny are 15-71 (21.13%), 1.22 A/E, +23.05pts BSP after first time gelding ops on the All-weather so encouragement can be taken by this. Paddy Mathers is also 6-33 (18.18%), 1.61 A/E, 23.95 BSP for Fahey at Newcastle and Fahey’s hc debutants also perform well here. At a price we have place claims if he is ready to go today and Fahey tends to have them in top condition for when they return to the track.
2nd October Selection (2) – Defence Treaty 9-2 UNPLACED
5.50 Newcastle Friday – Defence Treaty 9-2 (1.25pt win) Coral, Lad and Boyles best odds, 5-1 available BV, 9-2 widely available
A few in here do have solid chances but I do think Defence Treaty could be the best of these. He is a course and distance winner off 3lbs higher last year and he returned to form in a race that can be massively upgraded at Doncaster three weeks ago. Over the mile, he easily fared best of those racing prominently (2nd) in a fast run race with hold up horses finishing 1st, 3rd and 4th. In addition, the Doncaster mile is the 2nd hardest course for front runners in the country, so this can be marked down as a great run from up with the pace. He also recorded one of his best ever speed figures that day (highest in this race) so he should have the speed for this drop back in trip and the cheekpieces (on for only two wins) go back on today. The pace doesn’t look too strong in this and there are slight northerly winds which will aid us if racing prominently. We have a 19-race maiden drawn to our left who is looking way too short a price (tends to miss break) and a hold up horse to our right so I am more than hopeful of starting well. Those in with a chance are Insurplus and Sirius Slew but I am confident we should get a big run here now looking in top condition based on old form.
2nd October Selection (1) – Najib 11-2 UNPLACED
8.00 Newcastle Friday – Najib 11-2 (1pt win) Coral, Lad and Boyles best odds, 6-1 available B365, 11-2 widely available (6-1 BV) but best odds advised
Not a typical selection of mine but I couldn’t help but think Najib ran well last time out over this course and distance. He travelled into the race very well, making a move beside horses 2f out despite taking a slight pull and his jockey not really moving. However, I think Hanagan went for it too early as the selection was still making ground up on the bridle. As a result, he tired late on to finish a 2.75l 4th. Today he has his third run in a hood which has shown improved form the last twice and Ben Curtis gets the ride back. There is no-one better than Ben at this track and I feel like he can time his run to perfection today. Scots Sonnet is respected here but I think 10 furlongs is more like his trip and G For Gabrial is making his All-weather debut. The rest don’t inspire so I think we have a solid chance of getting off the mark under an experienced pilot.
1st October Selection (2) – Lady Danger 4-1 WON
4.55 Chelmsford Thursday – Lady Danger 4-1 (1pt win) BetVictor, Betfred, Betway, Boyles, Lad, Coral
Most of these can be almost immediately ruled out as they would have to have a complete turnaround to get involved here. The Good Ting is the only previous winner, but she only had a 54 rated horse in 2nd and she was getting 10lbs from them. She remains 2lbs above that winning mark and can be taken on. Beverage probably rates the main danger with the best RPRs here and likely racing prominently. However she is starting to look exposed for Mark Johnston and needs to improve to take this back on the AW. Red Carpet Queen is next best but again doesn’t want to find herself out the back from a wide draw here and her jockey is another reason to oppose. Preference goes to Archie Watson’s Lady Danger who ran respectively last time out. Making the running, she just tired at the end but didn’t finish too far off Hemmsa (RPR 72) and Baba Reza (rated 69). She gets an opening mark of 56 which does look on the lenient side in this 0-60 nursery. She tends to break well so hopefully we can get across and have enough to see out the trip with Hollie Doyle doing the steering.
1st October Selection (1) – Dubai Romance / Princess Mayson UNPLACED
8.00 Chelmsford Thursday – Dubai Romance 10-1 B365 and Betfred, 11-1 Boyles (0.75pt win only)
8.00 Chelmsford Thursday – Princess Mayson 7-1 General price (1pt win only)
All best odds firms advised
This is seriously poor and it is worth siding with a bigger price in a race of this nature. Farewell Kiss is the clear favourite but she lost her position slightly last time out and then ran on to win once the gap appeared over 7f. She could struggle over this shorter distance. Qaaraat is very inconsistent and is yet to win two races in a row. This is his first time at Chelmsford and he could be vulnerable off this kind of mark. Independence Day is a much better horse on turf (1-21 on AW) and hasn’t won for two and a half years. Princess Mayson probably looks the most solid selection from the market favourites as she gets in off 7lb lower with Joseph Lyon’s claim – she has the speed to take this and could dominate out in front. However, Dubai Romance remains unexposed for Eddery now returning to the course and distance of his best run yet. An ex-Godolphin purchase, he showed speed over this trip in September when finishing behind Bill The Butcher (won next two starts, rated 87), Shoot To Kill (won since, rated 77) and Last Surprise (won 3 times since, rated 94, RPR 100). That kind of form stands out massively in this and he doesn’t need to be as good as that level to win today. Havlin is in good form lately (5-19, 26%) and the selection was only out for a gallop when never touched by the whip two weeks ago when fading over a furlong further. We are still unexposed with only 5 career runs and we could outrun our odds here.
29th September Selection (2) – Headshot 8-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.10 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Headshot 8-1 (1.25pt each way) Coral, Ladbrokes and Boyles for best odds as advised, 12-1 available B365, 17-2 Betfair, BV, Paddy, Betfred and Betway
At first glance this looks like an open 2yo nursery. While his form figures don’t inspire confidence, after watching his runs and looking at the form, Headshot could well bolt up today. He has had 3 quick runs in four weeks, the first of those his rider let him rapidly lose ground from 2nd place to 10th place before asking for an effort. A week later he was given an educational ride under hands and heels and then last time out at Salisbury he just sat out the back. However he only finished 10l behind Group 1 placed Minzaal, despite not ever being put in the race. There have been multiple other next time out improvers and winners in all 3 of his novice runs this far. To name a few – First Prophet (rated 85), Fountain Cross 96, Oman (RPR 86), Rainbow Fire (RPR 92 NTO), Calcutta Cup (rated 85), Legend of Dubai (RPR 88), Maximal (winner NTO, 91), Round Six (rated 79) and plenty more. Subsequently, those were 3 hot races he started out in. He makes his nursery debut on the All-weather off a mark of 58 today having had wind surgery since his last run. Richard Hannon is an impressive 7-14 (50%) with handicap debutants on the AW having had 3 runs prior on turf in 2019 and 2020. That is a profit of +63.6 pts to BSP, 450% ROI at BSP and an astonishing 2.43 A/E, which shows these qualifiers massively exceed expectations. Headshot is also a half-brother to 5 winners including Zaaki (G3 winner) and two winners on the AW (RPRs of 99 and 80). We get a nice draw in stall 4 and although these are unexposed, the selection looks exactly like a handicap plot and as long as the wind surgery hasn’t had an adverse effect and he is ready to go today, we could take this very easily.
29th September Selection (1) – Mr Beau Blue 40-1 E.W UNPLACED
8.10 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Mr Beau Blue 40-1 (0.5pt each way) Skybet and BetVictor, 33-1 the rest all firms 3 places 1/4 odds
A speculative pick at long odds here but he should never be this price. Mr Beau Blue has had 5 career runs to date but only two of those were any good. Both came on the All-weather where he recorded fantastic speed figures compared to this race. On debut he stayed on well over 7f either side of several 70+ horses. At Kempton he also ran well (RPR 66) from out the back on handicap debut off a mark of 73. Despite being well beaten twice on turf since, he returns to the All-weather off effectively a 17lb lower mark with Saffie Osborne’s claim. She has improved markedly in the last few months and is riding well lately (4-15, 27%). The selection cost 38,000gns as a foal but his price more than doubled to £80,000 as a yearling, so it is likely that he is thought to have a decent amount of ability. There may just be enough pace on the cards for us here as it is likely we will be held up from a wide draw. It is possible we won’t do anything but at the price on offer I am happy to take that chance, as if they are on a going day this could well place at a minimum. I’d have him around a 10-1 shot here so we have a good bit of value at 40-1.
26th September Selection (2) – Voice Of Dubawi 13-2 E.W UNPLACED
5.15 Chelmsford Saturday – Voice Of Dubawi 13-2 (1pt each way) Skybet and BetVictor, 6-1 Betfair and Paddy all firms paying 4 places 1/4 odds
This is an extremely weak 0-55 and I had Voice Of Dubawi around the 4-1 mark to take this. She has only had one good run which was on her handicap debut when first past the post, but later got demoted to 2nd. That was a great first try at this trip, faring best of those closer to the pace and it is clear that this filly has some ability. I am happy to forgive her last run at Bath when held up out the back on soft ground, it is likely she hated the conditions. Today she runs off just 1lb higher and this field is seriously poor. Essgee Nics beat nothing when winning in July and has a lot to prove on the AW off a career high mark and the widest stall (16). Rockin’ N Raven doesn’t convince me at this trip and has a peak RPR of just 48 in handicaps. The rest look very moderate but Cat Royale probably rates the main danger having won over course and distance in January. With 4 places on offer, I’d be very disappointed if we don’t hit the frame and I am hoping we can sit closer to the pace rather than right out the back. It is also worth noting Richard Hughes’ record here – 32-172 (19%) and Shane Kelly is 8-30 for him here (27%, 1.24 A/E).
26th September Selection (1) – Red Gunner 13-2 E.W UNPLACED
5.45 Chelmsford Saturday – Red Gunner 13-2 (1pt each way) Lad, Coral and B365 all paying 4 places and best odds as advised, 7-1 available Boyles (best odds), Betfair, Paddy, Betfred, Betway, BV (3pl), 13-2 Skybet all paying 4 places
In a big field this is reasonably competitive, but Red Gunner has performed extremely well twice over this course and distance, so I can’t let him go unbacked today. After running well at Bath a year ago, he finished 3rd over C&D here in October. The pace was slow but he got completely stopped in his tracks when asked for an effort on the home turn. Having switched left, he showed a rapid turn of foot to fare best of those held up and only got beat three quarters of a length in the end, so that was an incredibly good effort. In November he made amends here off a 3lb higher mark (55) when travelling as strongly as it gets under Adam Kirby. Once shaken up he bolted away to win by 4.5l and as a result, I think he really loves it over this C&D. Now after two placed efforts at Bath, he returns to this venue off 54 and although this is slightly tougher than what he won last year, he has plenty of room in the handicap to suggest this could easily be exploitable and I think he has been lined up for this. Being drawn out wide here may not necessarily be a bad thing as it lessens the chance of being denied a clear run and he should have the class to come out on top from a wide trip. The pace doesn’t look too quick but I think they will instruct the rider to race closer in midfield as they know the horse loves it here.
25th September Selection (2) – Poetica 5-1 UNPLACED
4.15 Newcastle Friday – Poetica 5-1 (1pt win) Lad, Coral, Betfred with 6-1 available B365 all best odds (advised), 11-2 Hills and BV
We were on Poetica last time and based on that run I am willing to give her another chance today stepped up in trip. She was well placed after the start over 10f, but gradually lost her position during the race until rallying late on to take 4th after being denied a clear run. That effort suggests she should relish this new trip on a fairer surface and she runs off the same mark today. This is a tougher race but we are getting plenty of weight, which may count for a lot here. Bollin Margaret didn’t beat much last time out and benefitted from racing prominently – she has a 6lb penalty and surface move to contend with. Golden Hind doesn’t fully convince me at this 12f trip and she makes her AW debut, while Rainbow Jet is looking exposed as maiden now. Bellatrixsa probably rates the main danger if taking to this surface as I tipped her before being declared a non-runner earlier this month.
25th September Selection (1) – Muatadel 25-1 E.W 3RD
7.30 Newcastle Friday – Muatadel 25-1 (0.5pt each way) Skybet and BetVictor 1/4 odds, 20-1 available Betfair, Paddy, Betfred, Betway
This is a weak race and it shouldn’t be surprising that I am siding with the top rated here in Muatadel. He has been hit and miss since the restart but on the All-weather he is fairly consistent and he has enough going for him today to suggest a better run is anticipated. After needing his reappearance here in June he ran well at Lingfield, recording a good speed figure either side of several 60+ rated horses. Although for his previous trainer, he has won here over 6f off 65 and placed off much higher marks up to 79. Now on a career low mark of 55 and 7lbs below his Lingfield run, I can’t understand the price on offer. Cheekpieces go back on today (on for last two wins) and a drop back in trip to 7f should suit too. Tom Eaves gets the ride who won for us from the back with Curfewed on Tuesday, so hopefully he can continue riding well. Although giving weight away, Muatadel is the best horse here so it is just a matter of whether he turns up today, but all the signs are there for a big run.
22nd September Selection (4) – Hemsworth 12-1 E.W 3RD
3.05 Lingfield Tuesday – Hemsworth 12-1 (0.5pt each way) B365, Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 11-1 the rest
I always like to take on newcomers in Novice races as they can often be too green and come on for the run massively. Those having their first run today don’t look too special and the most backed of those is drawn out wide. Don’t Look Back was bred to be smart but he only recorded an RPR of 60 on debut and was beaten a fair distance – the step up in trip may be more beneficial in the future for him. Code Of Silence is another that was bred to be much better than what he has already shown, so he may be ridden with handicaps in mind having failed to live up to market expectations twice now. Hemsworth ran respectively on debut and that race has seen the 8th win next time out (RPR 80) and the winner Apollo One has finished 3rd in a Group 3 since (rated 103). The selection has every right to come on for that from a good draw (2) and against this field we definitely could hit the frame for up and coming trainer James Ferguson.
22nd September Selection (3) – Curfewed 11-1 E.W WON
6.40 Newcastle Tuesday – Curfewed 11-1 (0.5pt each way) Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy, Betfred, Betway with 12-1 available B365
This should be between the top four in the market and at the prices I will side with Curfewed who likes it here. He has a win and three places over course and distance off marks of 72, 62, 61 and 61 so he is respected today down to 62. Redesdale Rebel has a penalty and trip move to contend with today and with strong winds forecast at the track, he may struggle out in front with the head wind. Mango Chutney is another we have been on before and he has claims to reverse the form, but he hasn’t won for over 2 years and usually finds a couple too good. Palazzo could go well but historically hasn’t done great when fresh so at the each way price of 11-1, Curfewed could quite easily run into a place if near his best. We get a nice high draw here (10) and we will benefit from getting cover. Hopefully we can come with a strong late run down the near side.
22nd September Selection (2) – Man Of Verve 9-1 E.W WON
5.10 Newcastle Tuesday – Man Of Verve 8-1 (0.75pt each way) General price with all firms paying 4 places (advised) bar B365 and BV
This is a weak 0-55 and Man Of Verve looks like a potential plot today. All of his form is on tapeta, winning at Wolverhampton off 57 and he ran well off marks of 60 at Newcastle too. Since the restart he has had 5 runs, all of which were on turf and being held up out the back. Less experienced rider Andrew Elliott has been onboard for all of those runs and his mark has subsequently tumbled to a career low of 46. A return to tapeta today as well as the booking of Ben Curtis who rides this track better than anyone else, should see a return to form and he looks very well handicapped. We had Kyoto Star last time but he didn’t look good enough and I am happy to take him on here, while Benedictine could rate the main danger at an each way price down in trip and with first time headgear.
22nd September Selection (1) – Libbretta 66-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.20 Lingfield Tuesday – Libbretta 66-1 (0.5pt each way) B365 and BetVictor, 50-1 the rest
Once I saw Hollie Doyle was riding a 66-1 shot I was quite shocked and had to do some digging. First her record for this trainer – 4 wins and 7 places from 13 runners. The wins were all for the same horse but nonetheless, that is a great record for a smaller trainer. I take a look at the horse and notice that Libretta ran well after a layoff in May last year (RPR 68). Then the form works out much better than I was expecting. Dubious Affair in behind has won 4 times since and improved rapidly, now rated 100. Summer Flair behind in 6th hasn’t run since but recorded a good RPR (72) on debut. Then in front in 3rd is J Gaye, now rated 72 and 2nd placed Shwredness has won since and is now rated 79. The winner Bella Vita is now rated 95. Two weeks later the selection recorded the same RPR (7th) but was surrounded by massive improvers. 9th Monica Sheriff is now a 102 rated Group 3 winner. 10th Oydis is now 92 rated having placed in a Class 2. 6th Hereby is a 96 rated Listed winner. The 4th Inference is 90 rated and the 2nd Norma is 101 rated Listed placed. She actually tops the speed ratings here by some way and although returning from over a year off, at the price of 66-1 with Hollie Doyle booked and plenty of newcomers, she is definitely worth chancing. A shot in the dark but the trainer is profitable with 4yo+ on the AW (+33.5pts to 1pt stakes).
21st September Selection – Elzaam’s Dream NR
6.00 Wolverhampton Monday – Elzaam’s Dream 11-2 (2pt win) Coral and Lads best odds, Skybet, Hills, Paddy, Betfair, Betway
It’s fair to say Elzaam’s Dream won in convincing fashion over this course and distance for us last time out at 12-1. She was slowest away of all the runners, but rushed up to track the leader in 2nd and still had enough to fend off all challenges in the home straight. Fortunately she has only been raised 2lbs off the back of that and this race is actually an easier assignment being a 0-55 compared to 0-60 last time. I am confident that if she gets the break and doesn’t have to do much early on she can take this again. Obviously there are concerns that she will be slow away again, but in an easier race and still being well handicapped, I am more than happy to give her another go. The likes of Qaaraat and Comeatchoo very rarely win, running well enough to place consistently but rarely threatening. Zuckerberg has been subject to a big gamble more than once lately across two different yards, but he is yet to show any real ability with a peak RPR of only 45 in his last five runs. Deconso rates the main danger but he doesn’t look as good as he was as a 3yo, despite being well handicapped. We are drawn fairly wide (10) but shouldn’t have any problems as we have the most ability out of all of these.
20th September Selection (2) – Broughton Excels 11-2 E.W UNPLACED
2.30 Chelmsford Sunday – Broughton Excels 11-2 (1.5pt each way) Lad, Boyles and Coral best odds (advised) 4 places, B365 13-2 available 4 places, 11-2 Hills, Betfred and Betway all 4 places
OG followers may remember this was a sole bet winner for us over this course and distance about a year ago at 11-1. He drifted alarmingly before the off but still won very easily and he has run consistently at this track since, placing 4 times off marks of 55, 57, 59 and 56 respectively. As a result, Broughton Excels looks well handicapped today off only 54, following two non trying efforts last month. He was drawn out wide and held up at Windsor under Hayley Turner and then again was never put into the race over the minimum trip at Wolverhampton last time out when miles out the back. He gets his desired C&D today in an extremely weak affair – I can’t see any of these posing a threat bar Cincenzo Coccotti, a dual winner over the 7f here. He beat us here in February but had a much easier trip and got first run on us from a better draw. He is drawn out wide today and has a lot to prove down to 6f, having only ran to an RPR of 43 here last month. I simply can’t believe the price on offer and I’d be staggered if we didn’t place here. Hopefully we can make use of our plum draw (1) and race a bit more prominently, as the only obstacle stopping us from winning this is a bad ride.
20th September Selection (1) – Fleur Irlandaise 5-1 UNPLACED
2.00 Chelmsford Sunday – Fleur Irlandaise 5-1 (1pt win) Coral and Lad best odds, 6-1 B365 advised with 5-1 Betfair and Paddy
Nick Littmoden doesn’t have a great strike rate here, but I can’t look past Fleur Irlandaise who is rated 132 over hurdles. She ran respectively in two Listed events less than a year ago and also in a Grade 2 behind Lady Buttons. That form beside 140+ rated horses makes her opening flat mark of 62 look very, very lenient and she could potentially have up to 2 stone in hand today. She is technically running off 57 here, with inform claimer William Carver (4-16, 25%) taking an additional 5lbs off. Her reappearance two weeks ago at Lingfield was in a fairly hot race relative to this level and she was staying on from a wide trip. She had Chairman Power in front (placed NTO, RPR 70) as well as Amtiyaz (rated 80) and the winner Myseven has won again since (RPR 82). While she may want further, a step up in trip to 13f will definitely help and see her stamina come into play as she is a winner over 2m5f hurdles. A wide draw isn’t great so it would be positive if we can get across early and sit close to the pace, as it may be challenging to produce a turn of foot in these conditions. Most of these run to a mark of around 60 so it’s not a great quality event and at the weights, a chance has to be taken on this jumper.
19th September Selection (2) – Secret Potion 5-2 UNPLACED
7.15 Wolverhampton Saturday – Secret Potion 5-2 (2pt win) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor
I like Ron Harris at Wolverhampton and Secret Potion has a solid chance of getting his first win in over a year today. His claims were helped by Wild Flower being declared a non runner, however there should still be plenty of pace in this for us to sit behind the leaders and quicken away from them. The selection ran a stormer last time out at Salisbury, coming from last off the pace to only get beat a head to 65 rated Lordbridge Boy. He now looks very well handicapped off only 2lbs higher and this race should be set up for us. Mansfield is an appalling 0-28 on the AW and Jorvik Prince may need another race or two before getting back to winning ways.
19th September Selection (1) – Jungle Speed 12-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.15 Wolverhampton Saturday – Jungle Speed 12-1 (0.5pt each way) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 10-1 Skybet, Hills, Betfred
Trying out another class 5 today as the 12-1 about Jungle Speed looked way too big and this one has a solid each way chance today. Since arriving from France he ran very well on tapeta at Newcastle in February (RPR 85) off a mark of 83 (3rd). He made the running there, with hold up performers finishing 1st and 2nd, so it was a great first effort against the pace bias since being gelded. He has been inconsistent since, but you can forgive his Southwell run and penultimate run in which he was hampered out of the stalls. A return to tapeta and racing prominently from a favourable draw (2) should see a much improved performance now 10lbs below his 3rd at Newcastle with Hogan taking off an additional 3lbs. If we can get the breaks today we should at least run into a place and he is the better horse out of Loughnane’s two runners in this, who both should be with the leader.
18th September Selection – In The Red 20-1 E.W WON
6.10 Kempton Friday – In The Red 20-1 (0.5pt each way) B365 and BetVictor, 18-1 Betfair and Paddy
Rare venture into a Class 5 handicap but I simply cannot ignore In The Red given his record here. Over course and distance his form reads 21311 off respective marks of 70, 72, 75, 56 and 61. His two wins earlier this year were after a series of last place efforts, so a return to the scene of his last 5 wins is surely a sign that better is anticipated and a mark of 66 is more than workable given the way in which he won cosily by 3l here last time. We have a good pace angle with not many other prominent runners here, so he is likely to get the lead he wants. Chloellie is another course specialist who could go well but plenty of these have a few negatives regarding the track and trip. At the price on offer of 20-1, I can’t turn this one down given the selection’s record here and I see no reason why we can’t at least hit the frame if getting the run of the race out in front.
17th September Selection (2) – Poetica 8-1 E.W PLACED
8.00 Chelmsford Thursday – Poetica 6-1 (0.5pt each way) General price, all firms 4 places as advised bar B365
We had Bayston Hill when he won fairly comfortably last time out and I do think he can be competitive off just 4lbs higher today. However, this is slightly tougher and I am opting for a less exposed rival making her handicap debut. Poetica has had 3 runs to date, all on soft ground. It is not far-fetched to assume that ground may not have suited her and subsequently, she could be miles better than this mark of only 58. She was never touched by the whip at Ayr and I think this one has been saved for handicaps. Her dam won her only polytrack start and she is also a half sister to Lilypad, who won here over 14f. She is drawn well in this big field and I am hopeful that like most Johnston horses she can make the running, or at least race prominently. PJ McDonald does very well at Chelmsford and is 11-49 (22.45%), +75.08 to BSP, A/E 1.35 when riding for Johnston here, compared to his usual 12.13% strike rate on the AW.
17th September Selection (1) – Axel Jacklin 40-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.30 Chelmsford Thursday – Axel Jacklin 40-1 (0.5pt each way) Coral and Lad best odds, Skybet, Betfred all paying 4 places as advised, 50-1 available Betfair and Paddy
A relatively large field here, but with plenty of hold up performers and being Chelmsford, it looks likely to pay to race prominently over this 6 furlong trip. Chelsea Banham sends two runners here and although Joey Haynes is on a recent two time winner Holy Tiber, she is drawn out wide and is usually held up. Haynes is also in poor form of late (0-21) and all wins have come on turf, so back at Chelmsford you have to think she is looking poorly handicapped off 62. Preference goes to stablemate Axel Jacklin, who had two winners on the bounce at Lingfield in December and January. The key angle here is the application of blinkers – they were on for both of those wins and the selection’s record in the headgear reads 21110. Although he disappointed at this track in June, it was after a 5 month break, so he may have needed the run. Two runs since over a mile saw him never getting home and he drops back to 6f today. While he may be better at 7f, he should get an easy lead from the start and hopefully his stamina will come into play when seeing out the home straight. Darragh Keenan gets the ride taking 3lbs off, so we technically run off 53 here (won off 53 and 56), making us well handicapped. We are drawn to attack and he regularly breaks quickly from the stalls, so he certainly has place claims at a minimum today.
15th September Selection – Eyes 18-1 E.W UNPLACED
4.30 Kempton Tuesday – Eyes 18-1 (0.5pt each way) B365, Coral and Lad best odds as advised with 22-1 available BetVictor
A speculative pick here and although I think River Wharfe is probably a much better horse than his mark, I won’t be backing him at short odds. Eyes has the same owners as Brains, who had three quick runs out of the back in 3 weeks and then won off a low opening mark at Kempton on his handicap debut with Nicola Currie onboard. I am hoping they are trying the same with Eyes today, having made notable headway from last place over 6f at Salisbury under hands and heels. An opening mark of 59 seems fair and if we can break well from stall 1, we could run into a place. This is pretty weak so I am happy to chance her at long odds, with plenty of scope to unlock at the new trip.
14th September Selection (3) – Victory Rose 7-1 E.W WON
8.20 Wolverhampton Monday – Victory Rose 7-1 (1pt each way) Coral and Lad with 8-1 available B365, price widely available
As opposed to our first two selections, the pace in this looks extremely strong, with multiple potential front runners that will be fighting to lead. While she may be better over 6 furlongs, I can’t ignore Victory Rose here who will get the pace required to come with a late run. Hollie Doyle is riding her and I wouldn’t be too worried if we are ridden early on as she may struggle to keep up with the field for the first furlong. Hollie is a big upgrade from Adrian McCarthy who has been on all three rides for this yard and that could count for a lot today. She has slipped in the weights to 63 and drops into a Class 6 for the first time this year, so she is starting to look well handicapped. Passional is the least exposed here under the Doyler, but has been a bit green and her form hasn’t amounted to much. Awsaaf is drawn out wide and on a fairly steep mark and you can say the same for Hard Solution, who failed to hit the frame here last month. He is actually carrying more weight in the absence of 5lb claimer Sean Kirrane. We need things to go right for us here, but I am definitely willing to take that chance under an experienced pilot.
14th September Selection (2) – Plansina 13-2 E.W UNPLACED
6.20 Wolverhampton Monday – Plansina 13-2 (1pt each way) Coral, Ladbrokes and Boyles with 15-2 available B365, all best odds, price widely available
The pace won’t be too strong here and having shown enough last time out from tracking the pace, I am willing to give Plansina another go with more in her favour today. She didn’t quite get the longer trip LTO and a drop back to 8.5f looks a good move. We get 2lbs off from that run and the booking of Hollie Doyle suggests a much better run is expected. We are drawn well here in stall 3 and as long as we can sit handy, we should go very close. Pink Jazz was no match for an improver last time out and I don’t like front runners here, so he can be passed over as favourite with James Doyle having rides for Crisford later on the card. Dark Devil hasn’t won for 3 years and ran in a really poor race last time, while Traveller is almost certainly a better horse over the longer 9.5f having struggled over this trip last time. Waqaas has a lot to prove at this distance too, so the selection rates a confident each way bet with claims of taking this under the Wolverhampton specialist who is 17-82, 20.73% here in 2020 (1.31 A/E).
14th September Selection (1) – Beverley Bullet 13-2 E.W UNPLACED
5.50 Wolverhampton Monday – Beverley Bullet 13-2 (1pt each way) General price with Coral, Lad and Boyles for best odds, 6-1 B365
There is a huge lack of pace in this 0-60 handicap and as top weight, I really can’t understand why Beverley Bullet isn’t favourite here. He was a winner over a furlong further at this track off 59 in March, when returning from a 4 month break. Although he is usually held up on turf, he tends to be ridden prominently on the All-weather and that will count for a lot here with most of the market leaders being hold up horses. In form claimer William Carver has been booked today and his 5lb claim negates the penalty, meaning we technically run off a 2lb lower mark. A drop back to 8.5f will be no problem and should help us come out on top, as we stay further and will therefore be strong in the finish. Despite probably being declared a NR as he ran yesterday, we are actually now on 7lbs better terms with Final Attack, having beaten him 1.25l in March. Bell Heather presents the main danger here as he will probably sit handy on the inside of us, but I will be very disappointed if we don’t hit the frame returning from a similar layoff.
13th September Selection (4) – Prosili 12-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.05 Wolverhampton Sunday – Prosili 12-1 (0.5pt each way) B365 and BetVictor, 11-1 the rest
This is fairly open and I am banking on the form of Prosili’s debut holding up today. At Yarmouth she had a few improvers behind her. Myseven has won since and is rated 75 and she also had next time out winner Sakura Petal (RPR 80) back in 9th too. Every horse in front has also either won or improved since – Sparkling Olly won NTO (RPR 83), Viola won last month (RPR 83) and By My Side has also won since (RPR 85). The top 3 have all shown they are smart horses, with Lady G a Listed 2nd NTO, Katara won both of her next starts with the latest being a demolition job in a Listed race and Majestic Noor has ran well in defeat in Longchamp after winning at Newbury (RPR 92). Although not bred to be a miler, the selection has failed to see out 10 furlongs in her three novice runs, so a drop back in trip may see her in a better light and an opening mark of 66 is definitely workable, with Cherchi taking off an additional 5lbs. Marco Botti also has decent stats for horses making their handicap debut on the All-weather having had three prior runs on turf (5-26, A/E 1.18). Cwynar was a good winner for us LTO but he has an 8lb higher mark today and this is a much tougher race, so I would be surprised to see her win. If we can settle and run to our true potential, we have solid claims of hitting the frame on handicap debut today.
13th September Selection (3) – Captain St Lucifer 25-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.35 Wolverhampton Sunday – Captain St Lucifer 25-1 (0.5pt each way) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, 22-1 Skybet, Betfred, Betway
This one has been in my tracker for a while now, as Ivan Furtado’s handicap debutants on the All-weather should never go unnoticed. He is 10-39 (25.64%), +119.38pts to BSP, A/E of 2.27 with AW Hc Debutants. That is very impressive and he is actually 5-17 (29.41%), A/E 2.45 when it is his only runner on the day at the track. He sends just this runner in Captain St Lucifer to Wolverhampton today and his debut was very notable, doing best of those held up under mostly hands and heels riding (RPR 68). A drop back to a mile next time clearly wasn’t going to suit and subsequently he was held up in last, always off the pace. A run at Southwell LTO was possibly just to get a mark as he was never put into the race. An opening mark of 67 does seem on the high side, but being stepped up to 12f for his handicap debut, I am hopeful this is enough to justify the high mark. Most of these have had a few chances to get their head in front in handicaps now and as the most unexposed here, especially at the trip, I am happy to take a chance at long odds.
13th September Selection (2) – Heron 10-1 E.W UNPLACED
4.25 Chelmsford Sunday – Heron 10-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 9-1 available Skybet, Betfred and Betway
We are giving weight to all of these but there are several reasons to suggest Heron will run a much better race today. His form at this track reads 32138 off marks of 58, 59, 56, 66 and 65 respectively. That 8th was still only under 4 lengths off the winner, so he is definitely consistent here over 14f and 16f. The cheekpieces haven’t been on since six starts ago in December and they were worn for both his two previous wins (one here). Today they go back on and now running off a career low mark of 55, he certainly looks primed for a big run. Mackelly hadn’t shown anything prior to his Southwell win, so he needs to prove it at a different scene. Evaporust is respected but may set up the pace for us, as well as Bolt N Brown who is also expected to be up there.
13th September Selection (1) – Deftera Lad 13-2 E.W 2ND
2.30 Wolverhampton Sunday – Deftera Lad 13-2 (1.5pt each way) Skybet, 7-1 Hills and 6-1 B365
This horse was a great winner for us when landing a gamble at 11-1 over this course and distance in July. While he hasn’t won since, Deftera Lad has still been running respectably over different trips and different surfaces. He was given no chance last time out at Lingfield when held up right out the back – that race favoured the prominent runners and he did well to show a turn of foot and run on at the finish. As a result he drops another pound to a mark of 51, which is 2lbs below his C&D 3rd at the end of July, making this race definitely winnable off that kind of mark. This 0-54 event is much easier than what he has been facing lately and the booking of PJ McDonald looks significant. Vitesse Du Son was racing against nothing LTO and failed to justify favouritism, despite having the run of the race out in front on the downhill finish at Chepstow. Mr Gus has also been racing at a really low level and is drawn out wide here, while Air Of York is yet to show any real signs of threatening at this track in his last fourteen attempts. Vincenzo Coccotti is looking regressive now and has done nothing since the restart. I am confident that we will at least hit the frame here and as long as we are not right out the back and instead just settled in midfield, we have very strong claims of taking this – a big each way bet is advised.
9th September Selection (2) – Urban Highway 12-1 E.W UNPLACED
4.05 Kempton Wednesday – Urban Highway 12-1 (0.5pt each way) B365, Betfair, BV, Paddy, Betfred, Betway, Boyles
I think solid claims can be made to take on plenty in this race and that helps narrow down the search for the winner. Badger Berry has only had two good runs and they were both at Southwell – he has bundles to prove away from that scene. Cool Strutter is a much, much better horse on turf and his successful campaign leaves his AW mark miles above what he usually struggles with on the sand. Wild Flower is very inconsistent and really needs everything to go right – she has no more than mild place claims under an inexperienced rider. Comeatchoo has had 8 runs since the restart now and is 1-32, so it’s difficult to be confident, especially at 6f. That leaves the remainder, including three Tony Carroll runners. Tony is profitable to follow when he has 3 or more runners in a single race on the All-weather (5-36, 13.89%) with a profit of +81.82pts to SP. In reality that is 5 winners from a total of 13 races and out of these jockeys, Elisha Whittington is the most profitable and successful for the trainer. Bold Decision has only won on turf and doesn’t look particularly well handicapped now, while Eastern Star’s only AW run in this country was appalling, as she finished last of 13 runners as the favourite. That leaves the well handicapped Urban Highway, who may have enough pace to aim at today now he is 15lbs below his C&D 4th in October (effectively 20lbs lower with Elisha’s claim) and on a career low mark. He showed an encouraging sign of potential return to form last time out and as the biggest price of the three Carroll runners, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one run really well today.
9th September Selection (1) – Thegreyvtrain 10-3 2ND
4.00 Wolverhampton Wednesday – Thegreyvtrain 10-3 (2pt win) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, with 3-1 the rest
This is the ideal kind of race for me being a 0-55 handicap. However, hopes are pinned on the selection not making the running today, as there is a strong pace on the card with A Go Go, Swell Song, Teepee Time and Tilsworth Rose all wanting to be up there. On all form, Thegreyvtrain should get her head in front today. He ran well last time out, beating Captain Ryan who boosted the form for us since and Q Twenty Boy in front almost pipped Elzaam’s Dream for us on Saturday. That was a good return to form off a mark of 55 and he has run well here in October off 64 in a much, much higher grade as well as a close 2nd off 62 here last year. Qaaraat is very difficult to win with (2-52) and he is still the main danger, so that is saying a lot. I am confident that if we simply sit behind the first two or three we can quicken in the home straight, as all of these need to improve on their lacklustre efforts. Kieran had 3 winners from 3 rides here on Saturday, one of them being Elzaam’s Dream for the same connections and I am sure they are gunning for more, being in good form.
8th September Selection (2) – Bellatrixsa 11-2 NR
4.10 Newcastle Tuesday – Bellatrixsa 11-2 (1pt each way) Coral, Lad, Boyles and BV 5-1 Skybet and Betfred all paying 4 places as advised (bar BV)
This is an open and competitive handicap, but the 3yos get an 8lb weight for age allowance and I am happy siding with the least exposed runner in Bellatrixsa. She goes straight into a handicap after just two runs on perhaps unsuitable ground, with both runs having soft in the description. Nonetheless, she ran well on both occasions and has some great form to back it up. On debut Lovers Moon in behind her placed next time out (rated 79) and every horse in front also improved next time out. Shouldering in 5th won with an RPR of 88, Wondrous Words has destroyed the field since at Redcar (RPR 89) and Arabic Charm has placed all 3 starts since (RPR 86). The selection also went very close last time out when pulling 12 lengths clear with the winner New Chapter, who ran well in a Class 3 last month. An opening mark of 70 could be on the lenient side and now on a sounder surface, she could get off the mark stepped up in trip to 12f. Spanish Kiss is the obvious danger having already ran well on the All-weather, but Bellatrixsa’s highest rated sibling won on his only AW start, so there are signs that a switch to this surface will suit.
8th September Selection (1) – Kyoto Star 7-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.50 Newcastle Tuesday – Kyoto Star 7-1 (1pt each way) Ladbrokes, Coral and BetVictor with 8-1 available B365
Quite a few of these have got question marks and in the context of the race, this looks like a solid each way selection. Splash of Verve is a weak favourite here for me, being only rated 47 and dropping back in trip. He hasn’t won outside of a Class 7 for five years, so I am happy to oppose him. Spantik has got a lot to prove for his out of form yard/jockey and George Ridsdale should be a double figure price having been off the track for 9 months and barely showing anything on the flat previously anyway. Another having to overcome an absence is Mr Carbonator – his yard is also struggling (0-19) and he hasn’t won for 2.5 years. The selection has to be Kyoto Star, a winner here over further and unexposed on the All-weather for his new yard. With Easterby he has only had four runs, but three of those were Amater Rider handicaps and they were all on turf. His best form was for his previous trainer on the AW so a return to that scene, as well as cheekpieces and a better jockey in David Allan, should see a much improved showing today. In addition, he has also dropped 13lbs in the weights over those four runs for Easterby and could be very well handicapped here off just 57. Scots Sonnet could enjoy the step up in trip so he rates the main danger, but I expect the selection to show his best work in the finish, as he stays further than this.
5th September Selection (3) – Nablawyh 9-1 E.W UNPLACED
9.00 Wolverhampton Saturday – Nablawyh 9-1 (0.75pt each way) B365, Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, 17-2 elsewhere all paying 1/4 odds
A lot of these have been running to a similar level of late and although we were unlucky with Uncle Sid last time out at 33-1, I am taking him on today with Nablawyh on her handicap debut. Her only half sibling Simannka was pretty smart (RPR 104) and she was bred to be much better than this opening mark of 56. Her most taking run was probably her last at Leicester, when she stayed on under hands and heels behind some nice horses, such as Lights On who won yesterday at Kempton and her debut was also a fairly hot event. A small step up in trip to 9f should enhance her chances of a better showing today and trainer Mohammed does well at Wolverhampton (16-89, 18%) for a profit of 46.99pts to BSP and an A/E of 1.07. This is his only runner at the track today and I think she can go well.
5th September Selection (2) – Zamaani 9-1 E.W UNPLACED
2.00 Kempton Saturday – Zamaani 9-1 (0.75pt each way) B365, BetVictor, Betfred, Betway, Lad, Boyles and Coral
A tough Group 3 contest on the All-weather here, but the prices don’t reflect the chances of Zamaani when tying in his form with the favourite Mystery Smiles. He was only beaten by three quarters of a length when the pair met at Chester and today we are 3lbs better off. Zamaani has done nothing but improve and has claims to reverse the form with the favourite today with his starting price of 4-7 suggesting better was expected of him. The form of his Goodwood win has been boosted with Perotto winning next time out and then very unlucky not to win again at York last month. Crisford’s stable are going very well lately (9-31, 29%) and we have a good draw in stall 2 – hopefully with a fair amount of pace on the cards we can sit handy in midfield and we have a solid chance of hitting the frame today if taking to the new surface.
5th September Selection (1) – Elzaam’s Dream 12-1 E.W WON
7.30 Wolverhampton Saturday – Elzaam’s Dream 12-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 11-1 Skybet, all paying 4 places bar BV
It is very unlike me to go for the lowest in the handicap, especially in a race of this nature, but Elzaam’s Dream ran a stormer last time out and that effort, as well as her runs here in December, suggest she is now very well handicapped. Over this course and distance last month, she missed the break but was rushed up to lead after a furlong. Very rarely do you see a horse hit the frame after using up so much energy early on, so I was impressed to see her kick clear again on the home turn to only finish a length 2nd. While this is slightly tougher, she remains on the same career-low mark of 52 and we get weight from all of these. With a reasonable pace on the cards I am hoping Kieran doesn’t force the selection to make the running again, but now we are drawn out wider and having hopefully learnt from the previous run, it is possible we will sit in midfield and reserve energy for when it matters the most. She placed twice here in December in as many runs off marks of 56 and 58, so we look ready to strike today. Most of these have been running to a similar level of late and just lack that drive to get their head in front with plenty of 2nds and 3rds, so at the prices we have a good chance today.
3rd September Selection (2) – Bird For Life 11-2 E.W PLACED 3RD
8.50 Chelmsford Thursday – Bird For Life 11-2 (1pt each way) Skybet and BetVictor with 6-1 available B365
With 8 runners, this looks like a good race for an each way bet and only 3 of these are proven at the 2 mile trip. Of those, I really like the chances of Bird For Life today. She ran very well to bring home a 1-2 for Mark Usher last time out, staying on strongly in the final furlong to only get beat by a nose. Her recent form over 2m on the AW now reads 51521412, so she is very consistent, despite edging up the weights. It is likely there will be a strong pace on the cards here and with plenty of these at risk being stepped up in distance, things could fall into place for the selection, who is expected to sit behind them and come with a late run. Sefton Warrior is a massive doubt to get this trip for me, only just holding on to win over 14f last month. Grand Canal has a big step up in trip by half a mile and isn’t related to any out and out stayers, while the same can be said for Justified who hasn’t shown anything on the All-weather. I’d be very disappointed if we weren’t hitting the frame here.
3rd September Selection (1) – Bayston Hill 5-1 WON
5.50 Chelmsford Thursday – Bayston Hill 5-1 (1pt win) B365, Skybet, Betfred, Betway, Lad, Boyles and Coral
You can find reasons to take on a few in here. Pioneering was an easy course and distance winner in June, but he had the run of the race and couldn’t reproduce it next time out off 59. He runs off 1lb higher today and is drawn out wide which will make life difficult. Country’N’Western is fairly consistent but this is his first try at Chelmsford, a track it is difficult to come from behind at and he also drops down to 10f which may be too short for him on a synthetic surface. Ifton is a 16-race maiden and has failed to see out this trip on the last two occasions, so he can be passed over. While Lady Magda could run a good race, her inconsistency leaves preference for Bayston Hill, a horse with form over this C&D of 3123 (100% placed) off marks of 70, 68, 67 and 66. The latter run was only in March this year and he has recorded RPRs of 75, 75, 71 and 69 for those runs respectively, as well as consistently good speed figures. That day he got badly hampered out of the stalls and was forced to race in the rear, but showed a good turn of foot to run into 3rd. Today he runs off a career low mark of just 58, making him very well handicapped off efforts at this track and the regular cheekpieces go back on. While he is usually held up, at Chelmsford he has tracked the pace every time bar the run in March, showing connections are aware of the pace bias here and are probably expecting a better showing today. Mark Usher’s runners are going very well lately and if we can break on terms, we should go close if he is near his best.
2nd September Selection (3) – Hydraulic 7-1 UNPLACED
8.45 Wolverhampton Wednesday – Hydraulic 7-1 (1pt win) General price
Only a few look good enough to take this and at the prices Hydraulic could be well treated for his handicap debut. He has only had one good run and that was at this track against some fairly useful types – Frankenstella in front has won twice since (RPR 81) and Labeebb won his next two starts (RPR 93). His only half brother Atty Persse was smart (winner at 1m-1m4f, RPR 108) and his dam was also a listed winner (107), so an opening mark of 60 could underestimate him here, especially with the 11lb weight for age allowance in favour of the 3yos. Richard Kingscote is finding some great form lately and he is 4-16 (25%) for Kubler at Wolverhampton, with an impressive A/E of 1.96. Kubler is also 2-6 (33%) when applying a tongue tie to his horses for the first time as well as 2-10 (20%) with his handicap debutants at this track. Nikolayeva could go in again but perhaps is worth taking on at 11-8 considering his win was on soft ground against 50 rated horses. Market support before the off may be significant here.
2nd September Selection (2) – Morjhana 10-3 2ND
4.30 Wolverhampton Wednesday – Morjhana 10-3 (2pt win) B365 and BetVictor, 3-1 the rest
It looks very likely one of the top two in the market will take this, but at the prices I would rather have Morjhana considering her encouraging debut and pedigree. She clocked a good speed figure from off the pace at Chester and stayed on under mostly hands and heels riding. She is also a half-sister to 6 winners including Litigant (inc AW, RPR 117), Jollify (RPR 100) and Red Kelly (RPR 96), so she certainly has plenty of scope to improve and should make into a decent horse. Richard Fahey had a fantastic day yesterday with 4 winners and a 2nd across two meetings. With the assumption he is starting to find some form, Morjhana looks a good bet at 10-3. The favourite’s last time out 2nd has worked out well but we get 6lbs from her and it’s likely she will lead from stall 1, which I am not a fan of at Wolverhampton with the long straight. If we can track her on the outside we have a fair chance of getting up in the straight.
2nd September Selection (1) – Plansina 15-2 E.W UNPLACED
7.45 Wolverhampton Wednesday – Plansina 15-2 (1pt each way) B365, Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, 7-1 Boyles (best odds and 4 places), Betway, Coral, Lad, Betfred (4pl), Skybet
A few here have solid chances but Plansina looks a good each way proposition and shouldn’t be outside of the frame today. Her two All-weather wins were at Newcastle in 2018 off marks of 51 and 54 so she appreciate the return to tapeta. Now dropped to a mark of 55, she looks well handicapped (has won off 66 and 60 on turf) and this is a drop in grade to a 0-55. I thought she ran very well at Lingfield on her penultimate run, forced wide around the field but staying on strongly (RPR 59) and she recorded a great speed rating when coming from last into 5th at Windsor, faring best of those held up. A step up in trip could be the answer and there is enough pace here to think the gallop will be strong enough for her with Cat Royale, Gms Princess, Turquoise Friendly and Calm Down likely wanting to be up there. The latter could be an improver under Oisin Murphy but she is drawn widest and hasn’t shown too much. Mdina is one that wasn’t given a hard time in novices but again has plenty to prove on her handicap debut. The selection tends to be held up but I am hoping they are on a trying day and Morris can position her closer in midfield from a favourable draw in stall 3, rather than right out the back.
31st August Selection (2) – Frame Rate 13-2 E.W 3RD
1.40 Southwell Monday – Frame Rate 13-2 (1pt each way) B365 and BetVictor, 6-1 the rest
Only two here have experience on the surface and the step up in trip looks a great move for Frame Rate today. His two efforts in January over 12f both suggest he will enjoy the extra distance – at Newcastle he tracked the leaders when looking outpaced 2f, but rallied late on to only go down by half a length. Next time out at this track he stayed on same pace into 2nd again behind a progressive type in Arabian King, who has won his next two starts (both at Southwell) and is now rated 78. He was still well clear of the rest and runs off the same mark of 53 today. I am sure his reappearance after 7 months off two weeks ago was a fitness test, being ridden by inexperienced 7lb claimer Zak Wheatley and going off long odds of 33-1. In addition, Iain Jardine is in good form of late (4-25, 16%) and he does well at Southwell (13-63, 21%). Jamie Gormley is also very profitable to follow when riding for Jardine here (+74.13pts to BSP) with 5 wins from 15 rides and a further 3 places for a solid A/E of 1.4. It may be worth noting that Jardine is also profitable when applying a first time visor to his horses on the flat (3-20, 15%, +15.48pts BSP). Of the remainder, Robeam looks very skinny at 7-4 and shorter considering he is not proven over this trip or surface. There are a few unexposed 3yos but none look too convincing and would need to improve bundles to take this. Frame Rate looks a very solid each way bet.
31st August Selection (1) – Courtesy 11-4 UNPLACED
12.00 Southwell Monday – Courtesy 11-4 (2pt win) B365, Betfred, Coral, Lad, Betway with 3-1 Skybet
Southwell is widely known as a specialist track, being the only course in the UK with a fibresand surface. While a few here are already proven on it, Courtesy looks like he will relish the test, being by a Graded winner on the dirt in the US. His sire actually won two Grade 1s very easily over a mile and his only other progeny to race at Southwell won, making him 1-1 as a sire here. While too green on debut, the selection improved bundles for the outing last time out at Kempton, with the form boosted on Sunday when Ilalliqa won at Yarmouth. That RPR of 71 was very good for this grade and he remains with plenty of scope going into a handicap after just two starts. Martyn Meade sends just this one runner up to Southwell on a 3 hour journey and if we can break well from stall 1 and sit prominently, I’d be hopeful we can run a really nice race. Cape Greco rates the main danger with Capla Cubiste likely needing further from a wide draw.
29th August Selection – Jash 15-2 NR
2.05 Newmarket Saturday – Jash 8-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfair and Paddy, 15-2 Betfred and Boyles, 17-2 available Hills but take best odds
27th August Selection (4) – Dancing Jo 5-1 3RD
5.25 Lingfield Thursday – Dancing Jo 5-1 (1pt win) General price with 11-2 available BetVictor
This is pretty competitive but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Dancing Jo reverse the placings with Crystal Carole today. He lacked a run when the pair met at Windsor earlier this month but fared best of those from a prominent position and the latter was already race fit. With our jockey’s claim today, we are on 11lbs better terms and racing prominently will suit more here with a slower pace looking likely. Granted, we need to cut across from the widest draw but now we are low in the weights, we may have enough in the tank to last home. The selection is also a course and distance winner off a 9lb higher mark so we are certainly well handicapped. Mick Channon had a slow start to the campaign but he is starting to find form again now and he does okay at this track. Tanqeeb has a lot to prove and Buick doesn’t have an amazing record for Williams, while Azets is still 3lbs above his highest winning mark and would therefore need a career best to take this.
27th August Selection (3) – Mercers 11-4 2ND
7.00 Lingfield Thursday – Mercers 11-4 NAP (3pt win) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 5-2 elsewhere
This rates a very strong bet for me and only 1 times out of 100 I’d expect her not to finish in the first 3. Mercers is a course specialist with form at Lingfield over this trip reading 5-213554-131-F89-52 and although she hasn’t won here since December 31st 2018, I really think she will get her head in front today off a career low mark of 49. She ran really well last time out, faring best of those up with the pace to only get picked off late on by another course specialist who came from last to first. That effort should make her a 5-4 shot here for me and it looks like there is loads of pace in this. Although she tends to track the leaders, she can sometimes be held up and I’d expect Grace McEntee, who rides this track well, to position her in midfield today and quicken up a furlong out. She is well drawn in stall 1 and that will help her conserve her energy for the closing stages, granted a clear run. Having a look at what she’s up against – Little Floozie ran her best race last time, but that was when they were not using starting stalls at Leicester and she subsequently gained a 3l lead from the start. The form hasn’t worked out and she was getting weight from her rivals, so she can be passed over. Edge Of The Bay has recorded a peak RPR in 5 starts of just 37, which to put it simply, is appalling. Lady Florence has only had one good run and that was after a long break of turf as a 50-1 shot – again she was getting weight and prominent runners were massively favoured on the downhill finish at Chepstow, so she doesn’t fill me with confidence at all. Illustrious Spirit is still a maiden in 14 starts with a peak RPR of just 49 in 11 handicap runs – she is another that will go off at a ridiculous pace in front. The remainder just have no form claims and subsequently Mercers is a strong NAP bet for me.
27th August Selection (2) – Mr Mac 16-1 E.W UNPLACED
7.30 Lingfield Thursday – Mr Mac 16-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfair and Paddy 4 places, 16-1 3 places BetVictor, 14-1 4 places Skybet, Betfred, Betway, Coral, Lad. 4 PLACES ADVISED
We were on this selection last time before being pulled out as a non runner. Although he may prefer the mile trip, Mr Mac looks too overpriced to ignore here. He has won at Lingfield off marks of 59 and 62, so he looks well handicapped to strike today off just 55. That’s a career low mark and he can come on for his reappearance three weeks ago. There is a lack of pace here with many liking to be held up, so I am hoping he sits close to the pace rather than being out the back and saved for another day as this is a great opportunity to get off the mark for new trainer Simon Hodgson. Charles Bishop gets the ride back and the cheekpieces go back on, which is encouraging of a better run. Global Acclamation rates the main danger and we were unfortunate to get pipped on the line with him last time. He would be a bet if only raised a couple of pounds, but a 5lb rise looks steep for me and he may just find a couple too good here. With 4 places on offer, we have solid each way claims.
27th August Selection (1) – Apache Blaze 17-2 E.W 2ND
3.45 Chelmsford Thursday – Apache Blaze 17-2 (0.75pt each way) Skybet, Hills, BV, Betfred, Betway with 10-1 available B365
This is a very poor 0-50 classified stakes and Apache Blaze looked way too big at 17-2 and bigger on offer. He ran okay in 4th over this course and distance in June when returning from a break and his two turf runs since can be excused. Last time out he had a wide draw and had to get across to the front but did okay in the circumstances behind 59 rated Notion Of Time, 60 rated Costello and now 61 rated My Brother Mike (won again since). Again there is not much pace in this bar Johni Boxit who hasn’t won for two years, so we will benefit from racing prominently from the plum draw in stall 1. He’s previously been notching up some decent RPRs relative to this contest before the restart – 52 and 59 at Wolverhampton as well as regular 60-70 RPRs this time last year. Kieran O’Neill, although in poor form, does fairly well for Brisland at this track (3-21, 14.29%) with an A/E of 1.59, showing the pair exceed expectations. Archdeacon is too short as a 5-2fav as he is too unreliable and the rest have struggled to even hit an RPR in the 50s of late, so the selection rates a good value bet at an each way price.
26th August Selection (3) – Princess Siyouni 4-1 3RD
3.25 Lingfield Wednesday – Princess Siyouni 4-1 (1.5pt win) B365 and BetVictor, 7-2 the rest
This is very, very poor with most struggling to even place in their last few starts. However, Princess Siyouni had an encouraging reappearance run last month after 8 months off the track and she can certainly come on for that. A half sister to 10f winner Frenzified (RPR 103), she was bred to be much better than this mark of 49 and she gets weight from the older horses in this classified stakes. Now fit, she can put her best foot forward and there really isn’t much to beat here. Officer Drivel holds each way claims at 12-1 as he does like an undulating track on the grass, but his form was for a different trainer so a win bet is advised on Princess Siyouni.
26th August Selection (2) – Nearly Famous 6-1 UNPLACED
5.00 Lingfield Wednesday – Nearly Famous 6-1 (1pt win) B365 and Boyles for best odds, Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy, Betfred and Betway
This is fairly competitive hence the win only stake, but you can find reasons to think a few here may find a couple too good. Tulane has been off the track since January and all of his form is on the All-weather – he needs to justify favouritism. King Athelstan is another who is better on the AW and he is still on a career high mark having struggled the last twice. Tiar Na Nog normally saves her best work for Windsor and she hasn’t shown much since the restart, so preference is for Nearly Famous. She has only had three starts for current trainer Grace Harris and the first two of those were after lengthy breaks, so her last run was her first run fit and she did well to stay on from a prominent position. Singing The Blues in front has franked the form winning his next 3 races (now rated 82) and there were a few other decent horses in there relative to the standard of this race. Hollie Doyle regains the ride who made rapid headway 5f out on her penultimate run over 2m before fading, suggesting this 12f trip looks ideal. A 1lb drop to a mark of 58 makes her well handicapped on her Irish form and I am hopeful now at full fitness, she can get her head in front.
26th August Selection (1) – Kodiac Lass 8-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.05 Musselburgh Wednesday – Kodiac Lass 8-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor, Betfred and Betway
A very weak race here and most have no form whatsoever. Kodiac Lass has fair form claims and can come on for her reappearance run 3 weeks ago over this trip. Although not troubling the leaders, she stayed on well enough to suggest this trip is within her grasp and her RPRs in the autumn of last year would put her well clear of this lot. She ran okay at Newcastle on two occasions in January either side of multiple 60 rated horses and that kind of form stands out in this 0-50 classified stakes. She has some form on soft/heavy too which you can only say for Chinese Spirit here and as long as she isn’t held up right out the back I’d be confident in her placing and she has it in her to win this.
23rd August Selection (4) – Muraad 11-4 UNPLACED
2.30 Sandown Sunday – Muraad 11-4 (2pt win) B365, BetVictor, Betfred, Betway, Lad, Coral, Boyles
A few in here have had slow starts to the campaign such as Davydenko and Good Birthday. Godolphin representative High End has also been off the track for 3 years and can be passed over. Muraad left things to the last minute when getting up on the line at Goodwood and the extra furlong can only help today. That was an impressive performance considering he was running off top weight and looking in trouble for a while. Crowley rides him today and he is 1-1 on the horse, as well as being 4-8 for Burrows in the last 3 weeks. Victory Chime didn’t beat much last time out relative to this race, so Hyanna is the main danger back down in trip. We are drawn well in stall 1 and Jim can get the best out of him as he has shown he can win from being held up as well as making the running.
23rd August Selection (3) – Captain Ryan 4-1 WON
1.55 Wolverhampton Sunday – Captain Ryan 4-1 (2pt win) Betfair, Paddy, Betfred, Boyles, Coral, Lad with 9-2 B365
This is a horse I would normally take on 9 times out of 10, but in the context of this race, he looks a great bet. There seems to be loads of pace in this, with Lethal Blast, Wild Flower, Heartstar, Teepee Time, Krystallite and Secret Identity all regular front runners. That’s over half of this field likely to want to be right up there and things could fall into place for Captain Ryan, a hold up performer who has run two nice races over this course and distance of late. He is clearly in form and is a 3-time C&D winner off marks of 48, 54 and 56, so he looks well treated off just 49 today. He had to wait for a run here on Friday but stayed on well, and fared best of those held up when finishing 2nd two runs ago. He actually beat Teepee Time by a length that day giving 6lb and today they run off level weights as it is a classified event. As long as this outing hasn’t come too soon, I’d be confident he can run really well if things fall into place. We can’t really ask for a much weaker race than this and actually having a turn of foot may count for a lot here.
23rd August Selection (2) – Swan River 7-2 UNPLACED
5.10 Wolverhampton Sunday – Swan River 7-2 (1.5pt win) B365, Betfair, Paddy, BetFred, Boyles
Swan River was bred to be smart and the step up to 12f may do the trick today. On her penultimate run at Beverley she was outpaced but kept on over 10f and then dropped back to a mile last time out which didn’t suit, despite staying on well enough into 5th. She drops another 2lbs to a mark of 59 and her breeding suggests she should be much better than that mark – her dam was a G3 winner (108) and she is a half sister to Land Force (G2, 110) as well as being related to Photo Call (US Grade 1, RPR 115). Jack Mitchell has won 9 out of his last 12 rides for Varian at this track which is a stat and a half, although 6 of those were favourites. The draw hasn’t been particularly kind to us but the 3yos get a huge stone weight for age allowance, meaning we get 16lbs from My Brother Mike, despite only being rated 2lbs lower. Hopefully we can get across early, sit handy and see the trip out.
23rd August Selection (1) – Capla Spirit 9-2 WON
2.25 Wolverhampton Sunday – Capla Spirit 4-1 (1.5pt win) Betfred, Boyles, Paddy, Betfred, Betway
Wade’s Magic won well last time out, but there were a few things aiding his cause that day. The Defiant went off in front at a ridiculous pace, allowing the closers to finish off strongly. In addition, Wade’s Magic benefitted from a patient ride from De Sousa and with a less experienced jockey, perhaps wouldn’t have won as cosily. He’s been penalised 6lbs for that and previously has struggled off this sort of mark, so the 6-4 looks too short for me. Hard Solution is another who has a penalty and a wide draw again here – he would need to improve again to take this. Capla Spirit drops into a Class 6 for the first time and with his jockey’s claim he is effectively running off 9lbs lower than his last run. He needs to show he goes on tapeta but he has the best form here by some way – at Sandown he was beaten by 73 and 66 rated horses giving weight to both of them. In contrast to Captain Ryan, we will benefit from racing prominently here, with Hard Solution the only obvious front runner and a slower pace potentially on the cards. Tyler Heard is an inexperienced rider but he can put his claim to use and hopefully go well today.
22nd August Selection (3) – Onebaba 6-1 E.W UNPLACED
8.25 Chelmsford Saturday – Onebaba 6-1 (1pt each way) General price
I thought Onebaba had standout forms claims last time out but ended up leaving him as I thought the 5.5f trip at Bath would be too short. However, he won well to break his maiden and steps back up to 7f today off only 3lbs higher. George Bass’ claim negates the penalty and considering he has placed here off a mark of 70 last year, a mark of 59 still makes him fairly well handicapped. We wouldn’t want to be held up here so my hopes are pinned on him starting well and tracking the pace from a low draw. It’s a competitive event with Little Downs in there (an unlucky loser for us LTO), as well as LTO winner Light Lily and a few other 3yos who could still pop up and take a race of this nature. Granted a good start we should go close and I’d be surprised to see us unplaced if running to his best now he’s had a confidence booster.
22nd August Selection (2) – Maydanny 7-2 UNPLACED
4.40 York Saturday – Maydanny 7-2 (1.5pt win) B365, Lad, Coral, Betfred, Boyles with 15-4 available Betfair and Paddy
Jim Crowley has been in flying form with four winners yesterday and I think he could have another here with Maydanny. He won almost effortlessly from the front last time out under hands and heels to draw 5 lengths clear of the field, despite looking like doing a lot early on. Another soft lead is certainly not off the cards today and he is well drawn in stall 1. The other potential pacesetters in Sky Defender and Mountain Hunter are both drawn on the other side so we shouldn’t have any problems if breaking on terms. We have been raised 11lb in the handicap but deservedly so after that dominating performance with a few of these in behind him. 7-2 a fair price and I think we should go very close here.
22nd August Selection (1) – Indian Road 16-1 E.W UNPLACED
8.55 Chelmsford Saturday – Indian Road 16-1 (0.5pt each way) General price, B365 and Boyles best odds, 4 places 1/4 odds everywhere
Again, a very open handicap here, but plenty of these like to be held up and with 16 runners, it may pay to side with prominent runners from more favourable draws. Indian Road has only had 5 career runs and certainly could be overpriced here. His first three runs were in the space of 5-6 weeks but his best effort saw him finish behind the now 85 rated Makram and 82 rated Notforalongtime. His last two runs can both be excused – the penultimate was after almost a 7 month break and he did okay off a mark of 64, while not going unbacked. The last run was on heavy ground at Ayr and it was clear to see he absolutely hated it, never being put into the race under Joe Fanning. Now he is fully fit and back on the All-weather off a mark of 59, he could be underestimated today. Andrew Breslin is probably one of the more experienced of these apprentice riders and it is not unlike Johnston horses to bounce back from previously poor runs. Stall 9 is fine for us and I am hoping we can ping the gates and make the running like most Johnston horses do. We get a 5lb weight for age allowance and should be better than this mark, with his dam a Group 3 winner (RPR 100) and Irish 1000 Guineas 2nd.
21st August Selections – Minzaal 3-1 WON Ubettabelieveit 6-1 LOST
2.45 York Friday – Ubettabelieveit 6-1 (1pt win) B365, Betfair and Paddy
Ubettabelieveit has been a rapid improver for Paul Midgely and he laughed at his rivals when going clear in a listed race at Sandown last month. He started slowly that day but still won with a minimum of fuss. He deserves his chance at Group level here and the form of his Doncaster win beforehand has been franked with many next time out winners. A step up to 6f today doesn’t look beyond him and he may have more to show.
2.45 York Friday – Minzaal 3-1 (1pt win) Coral, Lad, BetVictor, 11-4 the rest
Minzaal got off the mark at the second time of asking very, very easily last time out at Salisbury, going 4 lengths clear on the bridle. The form was boosted on Tuesday when Round Six (7.5l behind Minzaal) won at Kempton (RPR 82). He looks Group class and I expect him to assert his dominance today now tackling a real test. He remains unexposed and his yard/jockey couldn’t be in much better form right now.
20th August Selection (2) – Montatham 15-2 E.W WON
2.45 York Thursday – Montatham 15-2 (0.75pt each way) B365, Betfair, Paddy and Betfred (all 5 places)
In an open handicap, Montatham is an incredibly consistent performer who has only finished unplaced twice in his 9 race career. He was able to narrowly reverse the form with 109 rated Dark Vision at Sandown last month and that puts him deservedly near the top of the market today. He has won on soft ground before as a 3yo and placed 2nd so he should have no problems with the forecast rain. We are drawn well in stall 2 and I expect Jim Crowley to give him another great ride stalking the pace. Top Rank is the obvious danger but he has been raised 12lbs for his win last time out and his yard/jockey are not in great form lately, so he may be a bit too short at 3-1. With 5 places on offer, this looks a solid each way proposition.
20th August Selection (1) – Mr Nutherputt 25-1 NR
4.30 Windsor Thursday – Mr Nutherputt 25-1 (0.5pt each way) Betfair, Paddy and Betfred with 20-1 B365 and Skybet, 22-1 Betway
A speculative pick here but a few of these older exposed horses have got no form on turf. Dyagilev is 0-6 with no places, Pink Jazz 0-5 with a best finish of only 7th, Muraaqeb 0-8 with a best finish of 6th and the short priced favourite Mac Ailey only has one win from 17 attempts, which was off a 6lb lower mark. Most of these are therefore better on the All-weather and as the 3yos get a 7lb weight for age allowance, Mr Nutherputt could be overpriced at long odds of 25-1. His best effort was his penultimate run at Leicester when he made the running beating Prince Alex (won since, RPR 73). He also finished behind some nicely bred horses in Ahdab (rated 73), Nasraawy (78) and My Frankel (won again since, RPR 98). The selection flopped here last month but he did a lot of work early on so I am hoping he can put that behind him. A few of his half brothers won on soft ground and Knight does well with his runners on soft to heavy ground at Windsor (6-29, 20.69%, BSP +54.41pts), so there are reasons to think he may appreciate it. This is also Knight’s only runner and Queally’s only ride today which may be of significance. Queally is profitable to follow when riding for Knight (BSP +119.81pts) with 9 wins from 73 rides (12.33%). I am hoping we can get an early lead and grab the rail as the soft ground will favour prominent runners.
19th August Selection (2) – Perotto 15-2 E.W 2ND
4.50 York Wednesday – Perotto 15-2 (0.75pt each way) Boyles, Betfred and Betway all paying 4 places, 8-1 available
A competitive handicap at York but Perotto looks like he will continue his progression today. He is now two from four and won comfortably last time out, despite taking a hard pull. That suggests there is still plenty more in the tank and if he can learn to settle better, he could be difficult to peg back. The form of his 2nd at Goodwood has been franked with Thank You Next winning next time out and his win beforehand has been boosted by Fountain Cross who is now rated 100. Mutazawwed is another that could go well at longer odds but Perotto looks classy and should finish in the top four. Hopefully he is more relaxed today and can get a good position from stall 2.
19th August Selection (1) – Rajguru 14-1 E.W UNPLACED
6.00 Bath Wednesday – Rajguru 14-1 (0.5pt each way) Skybet and Betfred, 16-1 available B365
I think we can put a line through a few in here and subsequently Rajguru offers a very nice bit of each way value. Jaaneh we have been on twice before, but there is no way I am giving her another chance – she’s not good enough and has had plenty of opportunities so far. Muritz has struggled as a 3yo since June with a peak RPR of only 55 – his stable is badly out of form (0-29) and I haven’t heard of her jockey before. Wrath of Hector, although in good form, hasn’t been running against much and he may struggle up to a mark of 64 now. Tidal Racer is another I am not convinced by being beaten over 5 lengths in his last two runs and again it wasn’t against much. Rajguru can improve back at the mile trip after two non-staying efforts over further the last twice. At Yarmouth over this trip he ran well in third, with Moorooj in behind winning next time out and the winner being rated 80. He also recorded RPRs in the 70s three times at the end of 2019 which makes his price of 16-1 seem a bit ridiculous in the context of this race. Today, he drops to a career low mark of 66 and into a Class 6 for the first time with a first time visor added. Tom Clover has only used a visor on one of his runners once on the flat and that won at 7-2. However, he is still profitable to follow when adding any headgear to his horses for the first time (4-18, 22.22%), with a BSP of +117.75pts and an A/E of 1.8. The selection has not run on soft ground before but his action suggests he may take to it. Clover has had a good start to the campaign so hopefully he can have another winner tomorrow.
18th August Selection (2) – Brasingamanbellamy 6-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.05 Beverley Tuesday – Brasingamanbellamy 6-1 (1pt each way) B365 and BetVictor, 11-2 available elsewhere
A very open and competitive handicap here but Brasingamanbellamy ran a stormer last time out and the angle is very similar to our winner in River Nymph on Sunday. Tracking the pace in 2nd, he managed to pull 5 lengths clear of the rest of the field with the winner Justified. However, the winner was held up, as was the 3rd, 4th and 5th, meaning this performance can be upgraded. It also looks like he is screaming out for this new 2 mile trip off that effort and his breeding also supports this being by a 1m4f winner Black Sam Bellamy. He is one of two runners for Jedd O’Keefe but PJ McDonald has been given the ride – PJ is 4-12 (33%), A/E 1.82 when riding for O’Keefe at Beverley. The 3yos get a whopping 12lbs weight for age allowance here which will make it a tough ask for the older horses. We have been raised 5lb on the back of our LTO 2nd but I think he is progressive and will be even better at this new trip. Deposit and Lismore both have obvious claims but we get a bit of weight and perhaps have more scope at the trip. Each way advised due to strong competition.
18th August Selection (1) – Major Snugfit 12-1 E.W WON
4.30 Beverley Tuesday – Major Snugfit 12-1 (1pt each way) B365 with 14-1 available BetVictor
There is a clear lack of pace in this weak contest and it may pay to side with a prominent runner from a favourable draw. Conditions look perfect for Major Snugfit today, the only obvious pacesetter here from stall 3. His jumps campaign didn’t work out earlier this year and he will appreciate a return to the flat and especially a drop in trip to 12f. He’d previously been running over 2 miles on the All-weather at Newcastle behind some decent horses relative to the quality of this race, but his efforts have often faded at the business end. He runs off a career low mark of just 59 today and that makes him the highest rated here. A change of headgear to blinkers, trip move and booking of Cam Hardie are all signs that a better run is anticipated. Hardie is profitable to follow when riding for Menzies on turf (+47.45pts to BSP) and has an impressive A/E of 2.02, showing the pair massively exceed expectations. Cuba Ruba would be the main danger but he can’t afford to break slowly and be held up again. Hopefully we can make the running and not see another rival and I would be disappointed if we didn’t at least hit the frame here.
17th August Selections – She’s On The Edge 18-1 E.W UNPLACED
8.00 Windsor Monday
She’s On The Edge 18-1 (0.5pt each way)
Mr Mac 20-1 (0.5pt each way)
Both 4 places advised Paddy and BetVictor, Betfair same prices with 3 places.
In a race where plenty are All-weather horses and most haven’t run on soft ground before, it wouldn’t surprise me to see some bigger prices involved at the finish. There is an extreme lack of pace here with Deftera Lad, Musee D’orsay and Dover light all being hold up performers. Preference is therefore for the well drawn She’s On The Edge and Mr Mac, who both hold place claims if sitting handy close to the rail. The former starts off life in handicaps rated 55 after some eye catching runs out the back at Chelmsford and Lingfield. Her form is underestimated here – on debut she beat Rock of Fame (69) and Pepper Bay (73) as well as finishing behind Endowment (70, won since) and Kohoof (68). Last time out she also stayed on behind Dream Academy (74, won twice since) and Old Harbour (74, won next time out). That works out pretty well considering this is a 0-55 handicap. Her winning half sister Conversant won on soft ground and her dam also won on good-soft so she should hopefully handle those conditions tomorrow. Mr Mac is an infrequent runner on turf, but won off a mark of 57 two years ago at Bath and ran respectably off a mark of 71 over this course and distance last year. Today he runs off a career low mark of 55, the usual cheekpieces go back on and Charles Bishop, who has won on him twice before, regains the ride. If taking to the surface, he looks overpriced at the 20-1 on offer and is a better horse than most of these if near his best. We have the two top rated horses here so the prices look fantastic value and we only need a minimum of one place to make a profit, but hopefully either can get their head in front.
16th August Selection (2) – Encourage 9-2 UNPLACED
5.10 Newbury Sunday – Encourage 9-2 (1pt win) most firms
Tasfeeq is bred to be top class but there may be reservations regarding the soft ground today. Preference is for the unraced Encourage, who’s yard won this last year with Quadrilateral on good-soft ground. Roger Charlton is in good form (5-21, 24%) and must have a strong chance of taking this if the selection settles well. He is also profitable with his unraced 2yos at Newbury with +30.82pts to BSP.
16th August Selection (1) – River Nymph 8-1 WON Danyah 5-2 3RD
2.25 Newbury Sunday – Danyah 5-2 (1pt win) B365, Betfair, Paddy
Danyah has two wins to his name on soft ground and although penalised 10lbs for his win last time out, he did it very easily while taking a pull and this could be another smart horse for Hamdan Maktoum and Jim Crowley. Owen Burrows is in red hot form of late too (5-10, 50%), with Crowley riding Hukum to a win for him yesterday.
2.25 Newbury Sunday – River Nymph 8-1 (0.5pt each way) B365, Hills, Betfair (5pl), Paddy (5pl), Boyles
River Nymph is another last time out winner who has been well supported this morning. His win has to be massively upgraded – he won from tracking the pace with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th all being held up or settled in midfield. The 7f at Ascot is also the most difficult track in the country for front runners, so to bolt away from them by 2 lengths is not a performance that can be underestimated. He’s another 3yo getting a 5lb weight for age allowance today and as long as the ground isn’t a hindrance, I expect him to be placed in the top 4 at least.
14th August Selection – Swan River 10-1 NR
4.25 Lingfield Friday – Swan River 10-1 (0.75pt each way) B365 and Boyles, 9-1 available Betfred, Lad, Coral
Write up to follow
14th August Selection (2) – Liscahann 40-1 E.W UNPLACED
7.55 Lingfield Friday – Liscahann 40-1 (0.5pt each way) Betfred (5pl), Boyles, Lad and Corals with 50-1 available B365
This is a bit of a stab in the dark but I couldn’t let the opportunity go by. The turf course at Lingfield has one of the biggest biases in the country favouring high drawn runners and Cieren Fallon is an interesting booking on Liscahann here. The selection started out with Seamus Mullins and her debut actually worked out pretty well behind Allez Sophia (rated 80, won since), Poets Dance (86, won twice since) and Jouska (96, G3 placed since) – she also had 82 rated Hot Affair and 84 rated Reassure in behind. Her 2nd run has also worked out pretty well relative to the level of this contest. She didn’t feature on her handicap debut but has since moved to Patrick Chamings and been off the track for nearly a year. Chamings does okay with horses returning from an absence (A/E 1.2) and also does well on the turf at Lingfield for a small trainer (10-47, 21.28% since 2013, A/E 1.54). Fallon is 2-10 for him but those rides were on a total of 6 horses and the two wins were when he was riding the relative horses for the first time (Ghepardo and Harlequin Rose). She lacks race fitness but if in good nick at home, 40-1 looks too big here.
14th August Selection (1) – Shyjack 20-1 NR
5.25 Lingfield Friday – Shyjack 20-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy with 18-1 available Skybet, Hills, Betfred and Lad
This is a very weak classified stakes and Shyjack looks ridiculously overpriced at 20-1. He is one of Christine Dunnett’s two runners in this and I can’t fathom the price difference. Percy Toplis went close last time out at 50-1 but the pace collapsed with another 50-1 shot in behind him (rated 37) and the winner was only rated 50. I don’t think that form can be trusted at all and the step back to a mile won’t suit here, so 5-1 looks way too short. Shyjack is still relatively unexposed for Dunnett and ran a couple of nice races on turf last year, finishing 2nd twice off RPRs of 57 and 58. The former run was after a 5 and a half month break so he should be fine returning from a similar absence today and cheekpieces were fitted for those two outings. They were removed for his two runs at Chelmsford this year and I am willing to excuse those runs as he was held up and it is difficult to make up ground from the back there. The cheekpieces go back on today, suggesting a better run may be expected. Cristal Pallas Cat would be a danger if getting an uncontested lead, but we beat him by 1.75l giving 9lb in February, today we run off level weights, although CPC has a 5lb claim. It would be concerning if we were to break slowly and be held up again here but we are drawn well in stall 1 and if we can make use of it by sitting handy we would have every chance of taking this contest now back up to the mile trip.
13th August Selection – Little Downs 5-1 2ND
1.45 Salisbury Thursday – Little Downs 5-1 (2pt win) Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor and Betfred, 9-2 available Hills
Most of these have got very low handicap marks and subsequently we carry top weight here, but Little Downs looks by far the classiest in the race and has the best form. Her best run was over this course and distance behind 76 rated Anjah and 85 rated Baashir. The 4th Desert Destination also went very close next time out and is rated 77. Furthermore, on her debut she finished in front of By My Side (rated 74, won since) and behind First Kingdom (92, won next two starts) as well as Ice Sprite (78, won since). An opening mark of 62 looks fair considering that effort and her breeding – she is a half sister to Marsh Hawk (RPR 105, Group placed) and closely related to Hairy Rocket (RPR 98), both of which were trained by Hannon. It looks like there is some rain forecast but both her siblings won on soft going so it shouldn’t be an issue if there is a cut in the ground. I expect her to have improved and put in a good showing for her nursery debut against a very modest field.
12th August Selection – Top Attraction 12-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.15 Beverley Wednesday – Top Attraction 12-1 (0.75pt each way) Skybet and BetVictor, 11-1 available Betfair and Paddy
A few in here look difficult to put full trust in at the trip. Araka Li was beaten 8 lengths last time out over this distance, while Jupiter Road is inconsistent and yet to show he stays this far for a yard and jockey in really poor form. Grouseman wasn’t bred for this far either, although a couple of his half siblings won beyond this trip. He can be passed over, as can Provocation, who has been very disappointing for Mark Johnston thus far, only beating a total of 3 rivals in as many runs since the restart.
Hua Mulan has strong claims to follow up but a chance is taken on the overpriced Top Attraction, who ran his best race to date last time out at Thirsk. The winner, 2nd, 4th and 5th all came from the back of the field but the selection managed to stay on well from a prominent position and a wide draw. That was also run against the pace bias which massively favours hold up horses (3rd out of 25 courses in the country for hold up performers over a mile). I don’t think Phil Dennis gave him an amazing ride that day and he probably went for it too early, however his stamina at the business end hints he will appreciate the step up to 10f in a more steadily run race. In addition, the form has been franked with the 2nd winning his next two races and the winner Rosa Gold has gone in again easily to land a hattrick (now rated 79 and will likely improve further). Chris Fairhurst sends just one runner to Beverley today and we receive weight from all of these bar one. I’m not a big fan of this jockey but if we are able to break well and obtain a prominent position, we should be able to hit the frame here and 12-1 looks massive to me.
11th August Selection (6) – Global Acclamation 6-1 2ND
5.15 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Global Acclamation 6-1 (1.5pt win) BetVic, Betfred, Betway, Boyles
This is another race I am happy to oppose the favourite in as Aiguillette is returning from a 285 day absence and wasn’t really running against anything last year anyway. Global Acclamation made his return over 5.5f at Bath last month and it is clear that was for fitness purposes as he is a 7f horse, which he gets back on the All-weather today. Having his first run fit for his new stable today, he looks well placed and at his best can take this. He has run well here before and Joshua Bryan takes off a nice 3lb so I am hopeful of a really good run if ready to go.
11th August Selection (5) – Isayalittleprayer 3-1 UNPLACED
6.25 Lingfield Tuesday – Isayalittleprayer 3-1 (2pt win) General
We were on Speech Room last time and I am hoping he doesn’t go in today but I am pretty confident in opposing Tawtheef, who is showing absolutely no signs that he wants this 12 furlong trip. None of his siblings stayed further than a mile and he had nothing left in the finish over a mile last time out. The clear pick for me is Isayalittleprayer, whose runs on the All-weather were miles better than her turf runs. She pulled clear with Billhilly over this trip at Lingfield and did well to place last time out from the back when Tamaris made a race-winning move on the home turn. Selecto has failed to see out 11.5f trips the last twice now and Machios has a 4 length deficit to overturn with ours – hopefully the race doesn’t get too tactical but we should be the best horse at this trip.
11th August Selection (4) – Giant Steps 9-1 UNPLACED
5.50 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Giant Steps 9-1 (1pt win) BetVictor, Coral and Lad, 8-1 elsewhere
Another pretty weak race here and it may be worth taking on the favourite Joe’s Way, who won well on nursery debut last week but that was on heavy ground and he faces different conditions today. Preference is for Giant Steps, whose two clear best career runs have come over 7f on the All-weather, placing 3rd on both occasions. He fared best of those held up at Kempton last time out either side of 59 and 60 rated horses but today it’s a 0-55 and we get weight from a lot of these. Light Lily is miles better at Southwell and hasn’t really done anything away from that track and Grace Plunkett only beat mostly 40-50 rated horses last time receiving weight, so I doubt she will follow that up. Chiarodiluna and Mudawwan could go well at an each way price.
11th August Selection (3) – Black Sparrow 4-1 WON
3.50 Lingfield Tuesday – Black Sparrow 4-1 (1.5pt win) B365 and Hills, 7-2 the rest
I don’t tend to get involved with Novice Stakes but Black Sparrow looks way too big at the prices today. Sarsaparilla is yet to get off the mark in 5 attempts for John Gosden and is no way a 8-13 shot here – I just get the feeling if Gosden’s don’t win in their first few runs they aren’t that good. Black Sparrow is all about speed and I think that will matter here with Grace McEntee taking off a useful 5lbs. There isn’t much between the two, Sarsaparilla has been running at a slightly higher level but we have more scope and are proven at the minimum trip. I would have the prices around 11-10 for Sarsaparilla and 7-4 for Black Sparrow so the 4-1 on offer looks tremendous value.
11th August Selection (2) – Littlemissattitude 33-1 E.W UNPLACED
4.40 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Littlemissattitude 33-1 (0.5pt each way) Skybet, Paddy, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred (4pl)
This race looks extremely weak and although in the best form here, I think it is worth taking on the odds on favourite Come On Bear. She has a tendency to break slowly and that could cost her from a wide stall today, especially after a 5 month absence. It’s difficult to make claims for the rest but I am chancing Littlemissattitude to go well at long odds. Her runs in December and January put her bang there, staying on at Newcastle and Kempton over 6f. A first try at 7f while getting 6lbs from the older horses could see an improved showing, but she does need to be placed closer to the pace. A jockey change to Cam Hardie may also be indicative a better run is expected.
11th August Selection (1) – Twilight Lucy 10-1 UNPLACED
2.40 Wolverhampton Tuesday – Twilight Lucy 10-1 (1pt win) Skybet, Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor, Betfred and Betway
A few unknowns in this 2yo only handicap but out of these, Twilight Lucy should be the classiest as she was bred to be very smart. She is a half-sister to 5 winners, three of which were rated over 100 and another was also trained by Johnston (Mrs Bouquet, RPR 97). Her dam was a winner at this trip as a 2yo (RPR 87) too, so an opening mark of just 52 looks very lenient based on her potential. Her runs on turf so far have disappointed but I am hopeful that now on a sounder surface she can show her best. We get plenty of weight from a few here and Hollie Doyle has been booked for her first ride for Johnston so we can’t ask for a better pilot.
9th August Selection (4) – Smokey 15-2 3RD
1.30 Windsor Sunday – Smokey 15-2 (1pt win) Hills, Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor
I put Smokey up when the remainder of the Yarmouth meeting was abandoned earlier this week. She is another 3yo I am siding with against some older exposed types and a few here are much better on the All-weather. She is a half sister to two winners over further trips in Alotabottle (RPR 89) and Lady Parsley (RPR 79) so she will appreciate this step up to 6f, despite probably wanting further in the future. She stayed on from the back over 5f on her penultimate start behind Diligent Lady (82), Giovanni Tiepolo (68), Good Earth (70) and Breakfast Club (72). Last time out she beat Storm at Dawn (68) and Irish Tweed (69, won next time out) and also finished closer to Breakfast Club. This is Charlie Wallis’ only runner today and he books Oisin Murphy for her handicap debut – we bag a nice high draw and hopefully Oisin will get the best out of her.
9th August Selection (3) – Rodney Le Roc 11-1 UNPLACED
3.15 Windsor Sunday – Rodney Le Roc 11-1 (1pt win) B365, Betfred, Betway, Boyles with 12-1 available Coral and Lad
I have been following this horse for a while now and bar his debut, every one of Rodney Le Roc’s runs to date have had either ‘outpaced’, ‘kept on final furlong’ or ‘kept on one pace’ in his race comments over 6f and 7f. He also has stamina in his pedigree, so it is interesting he has been stepped up significantly in trip to a mile for the first time today. He went in the tracker when coming off a slow pace at Wolverhampton in March and hasn’t shown much since, but if this step up in trip works then he looks overpriced at the 11-1 on offer. Curtis has a ride for this trainer in the race before so I’m sure they will be expecting at least one of them to put in a good showing and this won’t take much winning, even if he has to improve to reach the frame. We also get a 7lb weight for age allowance as a 3yo which will certainly help.
9th August Selection (2) – Binyon 9-2 2ND
5.30 Windsor Sunday – Binyon 9-2 (1pt win) B365, Skybet, BetVictor, Lad, Betfred, Corals, Betway, Boyles
It is important to take note of the rides that Tom Marquand is picking up these days and I think Binyon is no exception. He drops back into a Class 6 for the first time in handicaps today and this good to firm ground over 11f should suit him perfectly. He outran his odds of 66-1 on nursery debut when making up ground quickly to lead from 2f out at Ripon but just emptying inside the final half furlong. That effort was backed up on soft ground last time out but now he is 2lb lower on a mark of 60 and has a talented pilot, so I think he could go very close here. Chosen Star has it all to prove up half a mile in trip and she wasn’t exactly well backed on her reappearance two weeks ago. Diva Kareem is becoming expensive to follow and not convincing at this slightly longer trip. Glorious Return would be my each way play at long odds now fit after a gelding op but Binyon has better claims and would only need to find small improvement to take this.
9th August Selection (1) – Master Milliner 7-1 UNPLACED
5.05 Salisbury Sunday – Master Milliner 7-1 (1pt win) Betfair and Paddy, 8-1 available BetVictor
A nice staying handicap here and I think a couple will struggle to get this trip. Life Matters was almost certainly not bred to be a stayer, so he is a risk today and Luck Of Clover was never getting on terms over this far last time out. Preference is for Master Milliner, who rallied well on handicap debut over 12f at Kempton into 2nd and then stayed on over this trip last time when denied a clear run. Now fully fit and in first time cheekpieces, we can expect better of Emma Lavelle’s (2-7, 29%) charge on a workable mark of 58. By Jove is now 9lb higher for his win at Salisbury and has to find more for this extra yardage, while Single is looking difficult to train and Channon is still struggling to find some form lately (2-36, 6%). 13-2 a more than fair price and hopefully we will go well.
7th August Selection (2) – Terri Rules 7-1 UNPLACED
5.50 Wolverhampton Friday – Terri Rules 7-1 (1pt win) General
She was entered at Ayr on Wednesday but declared a non runner due to the meeting being abandoned, but Terri Rules has a good chance of getting off the mark at Wolverhampton today. She showed promise in first time cheekpieces last time out for her new stable, recording a fast speed figure suggesting she is back to form. I expect the pace to be pretty strong here with Teepee Time, Krystallite and Swell Song regularly making the running, with several other prominent runners sitting handy. Given a strong pace, the selection should show her best work in the closing stages and I think she has the ability to take this now off a dangerous mark of 53. Shesadabber is a better horse on turf and many here arrive in poor form – if showing her best we should run well.
7th August Selection (1) – Uncle Sid 33-1 E.W PLACED
7.50 Wolverhampton Friday – Uncle Sid 33-1 (0.5pt each way) Skybet, Betfred, Coral and Lad with 40-1 available B365
A pretty weak 0-55 event here and I am shocked to see Uncle Sid has opened 33-1 and bigger in places. He’s only ran one decent race so far and that was over this trip on his only All-weather start at Lingfield. He fared best of those held up when staying on strongly into 4th place late on after 7 months off the track. He has since stepped up in distance on turf, but failed to see out the trip – at Leicester he made headway 2f out but then his effort faded, suggesting the move back to a mile looks best for him. He was ridden by an inexperienced claimer last time out so that was probably an educational run. Today, Probert sits on him for the first time – he is 3-7 (43%) when riding for Jarvis at Wolverhampton, with three 2nds. The wins were also at decent prices of 16-1, 3-1 and 40-1 most recently, going back to 2010, so it looks like the trainer tends to book Probert when he knows his horses have a very decent chance. 3yos get a hefty 8lbs weight for age allowance here and we are one of only two 3yos, so we are getting plenty of weight from the field. The selection also gets a first time visor today to help eek out a bit more improvement and granted obtaining a good early position, we certainly have place claims here.
6th August Selection (2) – Secretfact 13-2 UNPLACED
3.10 Bath Thursday – Secretfact 13-2 (1pt win) B365 and BetVictor, 6-1 the rest
I like the look of this handicap as you can find reasons to pass several of them over. Storm At Dawn was bred for middle distances and will struggle with this drop back to a sprint trip. My Style is another who is bred for further and his jockey is badly out of form (0-36). Princely is yet to get off the mark in handicaps from 20 attempts and I think Zulu Zander may fail to see out this extended trip. The pick for me is Secretfact, whose form on firm ground at Bath reads 214151 with wins off marks of 71, 71 and 74, all under the same jockey Jimmy Quinn. Today he runs off a mark of 68, so everything looks in his favour. His last run caught the eye, being dropped out the back and only pushed hands and heels to the line in a bunch finish – he also recorded a great speed figure on good ground, suggesting he could be returning to peak form. Waseem Faris is another one looking well handicapped but he has a bit more to prove at his old age of 11.
6th August Selection (1) – Sulochana 11-1 UNPLACED
5.40 Bath Thursday – Sulochana 11-1 (1pt win) Skybet, Hills, Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor, Boyles, Betfred, Betway
It can sometimes pay to back the outsiders in small field races and Sulochana could be worth siding with as she has plenty of scope to improve up in trip on a better surface. Hughie Morrison’s rep reported she was unsuited by the going last time (soft) and today it is going to be much, much quicker. They waste no time in sending her over a real staying 1m6f trip and her pedigree is not devoid of stamina, being a half-sister to a listed winner over 1m4f in France. The way she was ridden on her reappearance run at Newbury under hands and heels suggests she probably needed it, so we have reasons to forgive the last two runs. Oisin Murphy had a decent priced winner for Morrison at Lingfield last night and hopefully he can follow up with another today.
5th August Selection (2) – Captain Corcoran 11-2 NR
4.40 Ayr Wednesday – Captain Corcoran 11-2 (1.5pt win) Betfair, Paddy, 6-1 Boyles
There has been plenty of rain overnight at Ayr and that should play into the hands of Captain Corcoran, a winner on soft ground in Ireland at the back end of last year off a mark of 70 for his previous trainer. The form of that win has worked out incredibly well in the context of this race – the 2nd has won twice since and is now rated 84, while the 3rd Garsman, now with Michael Appleby has won three times since and is rated 86. The selection’s second best career RPR (73) was also on soft ground so he should relish these conditions. Since joining Eric Alston, he has shown little, but somewhat bounced back to form with a more encouraging run last time out. He’s had four runs since racing returned which tells me they have tried to get his mark down, which they have with it now being 60, dropped 13lbs since his reappearance in June. Grandma is a danger based on her last outing but was receiving plenty of weight from a couple of 58 rated horses so we certainly look a better value bet. Somekindasuperstar looks like he wants much further than this minimum trip and Arnold will hate this ground.
5th August Selection (1) – Sea of Marmoon 5-2 2ND
7.05 Lingfield Wednesday – Sea of Marmoon 5-2 (2pt win) B365, Coral and Lad
I am giving Sea of Marmoon another chance today in a slightly weaker affair. She was run down in the closing stages last time out behind a progressive type in Ice Sprite (78) and she stayed on well enough considering how keen she was in the early stages. A switch back to the All-weather should see her in a better light and Buick will know how to get the best out of her. An 8lb weight for age allowance means we get half a stone from Quemonda, despite being rated a pound higher. I expect us to make the running here and we should do better as the race goes on as this 10f is likely a minimum for her. Good Time Charlie is not certain to stay this trip and Pax Britannica needs to find improvement based on her recent efforts. If Buick can keep her relaxed we should be there at the business end.
4th August Selection – Good Luck Charm 6-1 2ND
8.15 Lingfield Tuesday – Good Luck Charm 6-1 (1pt win) B365, Skybet, Paddy, Betfair, BetVictor
A fairly competitive race at Lingfield, but granted a strong enough pace to aim at, Good Luck Charm looks to have every chance. He won over course and distance a year ago easily by 3.25l from the back, with prominent runners finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th, so that can be upgraded. His best performance since then was over a furlong shorter back at Lingfield in October, staying on late into 2nd off a mark of 61, 9lbs higher than his C&D win. The winner Beepeecee (72) has also won again since. Today the selection returns to Lingfield off a mark of just 54 so he is certainly well handicapped to go in again, despite now being 11yo. Fivehundredmiles, Seaforth and Confrerie would all need career bests to win this and Mr Mac needs to overcome a break, which historically he has struggled with. Blessed To Empress doesn’t stay this trip and Comeonfeeltheforce is best at Kempton so I think 6-1 for ours is more than fair.
3rd August Selection (5) – Storming Jibreel 14-1 UNPLACED
2.30 Yarmouth Monday – Storming Jibreel 14-1 (1pt win) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 12-1 the rest
Another weak race here but Storming Jibreel is bred to be so much better than what he’s shown so far. He is a half brother to winners including Spirit of Valour (RPR 117) and Street Life (RPR 111) and his dam was also a winner. He’s been given 3 quiet rides out the back but should appreciate the longer trip today. Lady Morpheus and Bristol Missile both have huge question marks over this trip and Volcano Bay didn’t beat anything last twice with RPRs of only 50. We get first time cheekpieces today and should hopefully run a better race.
3rd August Selection (4) – Smokey 16-1 NR
4.00 Yarmouth Monday – Smokey 16-1 (1pt win) Hills and BetVictor, 14-1 Skybet, Betfred, Boyles and Betway
This is another 3yo I am siding with against some older exposed types and although I think Molly Shaw could also go well, preference has to be for Smokey. She is a half sister to two winners over further trips in Alotabottle (RPR 89) and Lady Parsley (RPR 79) so she will appreciate this step up to 6f, despite probably wanting further in the future. She stayed on from the back over 5f on her penultimate start behind Diligent Lady (82), Giovanni Tiepolo (68), Good Earth (70) and Breakfast Club (72) – that kind of form stands out like a sore thumb in this, against market leaders who have only been running against horses rated in the 40s and 50s. Last time out she beat Storm at Dawn (68) and Irish Tweed (69, won next time out) and also finished closer to Breakfast Club. The selection is one of two runners here for Charlie Wallis and this clearly looks the stable’s first string with Hollie Doyle riding.
3rd August Selection (3) – Cornborough 7-1 UNPLACED
2.15 Haydock Monday – Cornborough 7-1 (1pt win) B365, Betfair and Paddy
Course and distance winner Cornborough’s form at Haydock reads 3213 with the win being his only attempt over this 10f trip. That was off a mark of 73 and today he runs off 70, with inform Danny Redmond (3-7, 43%) taking off an extra 3lb. He ran incredibly well last month from a whole year off the track (RPR 69) and will surely strip fitter for this apprentice handicap. His previous RPRs at this track were 77, 78, 81 and 77 so he runs this track pretty consistently and if he produces the same today, he shouldn’t be out of the frame. This is weaker than what he is used to so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make it 2-2 over C&D today.
3rd August Selection (2) – Bug Boy 13-2 UNPLACED
8.15 Windsor Monday – Bug Boy 13-2 (1pt win) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy, 6-1 available Betfred and Betway
Followers who have been with me since day 1 may remember Bug Boy was the first winner I gave this service back in August last year. He clearly thrives over a stiff 10f but 12f is probably his best trip – his wins last year were off marks of 63 and 67, the latter over 12f being an easy 3.25l win and both under Rhiain Ingram. After joining his new yard, he’s been given 3 quiet runs on the AW over an insufficient mile, but it was his last start that is most noteworthy. He travelled extremely well and Ingram barely asked him for an effort in the home straight, only pushing him out when he was still closing to the line strongly. He normally wore cheekpieces for his previous trainer but I am hopeful he won’t need them today as he looked back to his best at Kempton. A mark of 59 would massively underestimate him today back up to a trip of 1m3f99y and a few here have got something to prove. Prince Alex and Flashing Approach the two dangers but I think 13-2 is more than a fair price for our chances.
3rd August Selection (1) – Marie’s Gem 11-4 UNPLACED
3.00 Yarmouth Monday – Marie’s Gem 11-4 (2pt win) B365, BetVictor and Skybet with 5-2 available Coral, Lad, Betfred and Betway
This is an extremely weak affair but there is only one winner here for me and that is Marie’s Gem. She didn’t stay the 12f last time out and was eased once hampered inside the final furlong – she goes back down to 10f today off a mark of 57 and this should be her ideal trip with recorded RPRs of 61 and 62 putting her clear of the rest of the field. Lord Chappelfield is uncertain to stay this trip and beat nothing when 5.5l 2nd LTO. Winter Snowdrop’s peak RPR in her 13 race career is only 46 so she can immediately be passed over. Visor is the classiest performer of the rest, but this trip looks too short for him and he has to overcome a 184 day layoff, so this is likely a fitness run. The remainder are completely out of form and I would be shocked if they even got close to winning. 11-4 is a ridiculous price for the selection as he is a 5-4 shot in my book.
2nd August Selection (2) – Prophecy 16-1 UNPLACED
12.50 Newcastle Sunday – Prophecy 16-1 (1pt win) Skybet, Betfair and Paddy, 14-1 elsewhere
A very open handicap here hence the win only stake at a big price, but the selection has been in the tracker and I couldn’t pass up the opportunity now back at Newcastle upped in trip to 7f. Prophecy ran well twice at this track in novice events at the start of the year, especially considering he was giving loads of weight running as a 4yo. Both of those runs as well as breeding suggest he will love this longer trip and we can put a line through his reappearance run out the back at Newmarket in June – his jockey never even went for the whip. He gets the plum draw today in stall 14 so he should be positioned well and I expect Rowan Scott to place him more prominently today. Hopefully he runs a big race.
2nd August Selection (1) – Great Colaci 11-4 2ND
2.10 Leicester Sunday – Great Colaci 11-4 (2pt win) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor
As expected, due to running yesterday Kendergarten Kop is now a non runner. That leaves a clear standout pick for me here in Great Colaci, who should only have to reproduce his 2nd and 3rd last runs to win this. He missed the break last time out so we can forgive that but I think he is lined up for a win today in this extremely weak race. He should be good enough to take this under improving claimer Oliver Stammers who takes off a very useful 7lb and as long as he doesn’t miss the break again, I can’t see him not going very close today. The main danger is Luscifer but he still needs a career best away from Southwell to win. We are drawn well in stall 2 so we have everything going for us here and the 5-2 was certainly a nice bit of value.
1st August Selection – East End Girl 9-1 WON
5.25 Chepstow Saturday – East End Girl 13-2 Hills, Skybet and BetVictor (1pt win) 6-1 everywhere else
I am not that keen on the market leaders in this 3yo handicap. Scarlet Ruby beat nothing last time, the highest being rated 48 and she was receiving weight from all of them with the weight for age allowance. She is effectively up 8lb with out of form Kieran Shoemark taking the ride instead of inform 3lb claimer Greatrex last time out. Decora is becoming difficult to win with and her stable is really struggling lately (0-30), so preference is for East End Girl, who has the best form here. She fared best of those held up on her return at Kempton last month under Hollie Doyle behind 79 rated Maiden Castle and 84 rated Quickhorn. The 5th three lengths behind also won next time out (RPR 78). The step up in trip to 12f looks a good move being by Youmzain and Wadham sends just one runner from Newmarket to Chepstow today. She has drifted alarmingly in the market which is never a good sign, but she is a silly price now. Won’t be expecting anything but she could be one to keep an eye on.
July 31st Selection (3) – Allux Boy 13-2 UNPLACED
8.35 Wolverhampton Friday – Allux Boy 13-2 (1.5pt win) Skybet and BetVictor, 6-1 elsewhere
Tinkler is starting to hit form again with an easy winner at Goodwood yesterday and Allux Boy looks perfectly handicapped and placed to strike today. He won over this course and distance off 2lbs higher last year and has regularly ran well here off much higher marks. He is better over this 8.5f than the 9.5f in my opinion and as long as the wind op and 4 month break hasn’t had an adverse impact, I think he will take all the beating today. He will need to track the leaders rather than be held up but I would have him around 7-2 here on a trying day. Recuerdame was advantaged by a strong pace last time and I doubt he will get that today and you can say the same for Musee D’orsay. Freedom and Wheat may be a danger but the rest haven’t been running to our level of late and can be passed over. If we break well I think we should win, so the 13-2 on offer looks massive value to me.
July 31st Selection (2) – Masquerade Bling 18-1 E.W UNPLACED
7.05 Wolverhampton Friday – Masquerade Bling 18-1 (0.75pt each way) Hills, Betfred, Betway, Lad and Corals with 20-1 available Skybet
The 18-1+ available for Masquerade Bling really shocked me when I saw the early prices. Her form over this 7f trip on the All-weather reads 425154254313 and those were all off marks ranging from 55 to 60, so we already have a pretty good idea of what level she runs to under these ideal conditions and she does it fairly consistently with a 50% place rate. Today she runs off a career low mark of 53 for bang in form Neil Mulholland (7-19, 37%) and she can come on for her reappearance run on the grass two weeks ago when she never got going over a trip she doesn’t stay. She also regularly runs well at Wolverhampton with a win and place over this course and distance. She should only have to run to the same level of the mentioned runs to hit the frame here, with those outside the top two in the market having big question marks for me. Having said that, her RPRs at this track are better than Deftera Lad’s (winner for us LTO) and Red Bravo’s, so the price doesn’t make much sense to me. Obviously she has to put her last run behind her, but being placed back at Wolverhampton looks a sign of intent from connections and Fallon is a decent pilot to hopefully obtain a favourable position from a low draw.
July 31st Selection (1) – Miss M 11-1 E.W UNPLACED
8.25 Lingfield Friday – Miss M (0.75pt each way) 11-1 Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor
Miss M has been off the track since November but I have reason to believe she could run a good race today. Previously with William Muir, she makes her stable debut for David Pipe on her first run after a wind op, with a first time tongue tie added. It is interesting Finley Marsh has been booked – he is 2-2 (100%) when riding for Pipe’s stable debutants, with winners at 9-1 and 3-1 and he also takes off a handy 3lb, meaning the selection effectively runs off 59 here. She has won off marks of 54, 55 and 58 before but ran well and placed off marks in the 60s, so she looks fairly well handicapped. Her RPRs in the mid-high 60s against better horses last year standout in this race and if not inconvenienced by the break, she should go close. Peace Prevails is a better horse on turf and the favourite Capricorn Prince has beaten nothing on the All-weather. Accessor will want a longer trip and the rest will probably really struggle. We are drawn out wide but I think 11-1 is a fantastic price. Hopefully we see some market support.
July 30th Selection – Valentino Sunrise 9-2 UNPLACED
6.00 Musselburgh Thursday – Valentino Sunrise (1.5pt win) 9-2 General
A very weak race in this Classified Stakes, with most having absolutely no chance here. However, despite his yard being out of form, the verdict goes to Valentino Sunrise, who can take this if running to the level of his runs in the autumn of 2019. He frequently ran well on going’s with soft in the description and would welcome any rain at Musselburgh today. He posed RPRs of 61, 66, 50, 58 and 61 from July up to October last year and that standard should beat this field convincingly. He hasn’t had a great start to this campaign, but ran okay at Windsor against much better horses than this under an inexperienced claimer. In form Kevin Stott has been booked to ride today and the selection gets first time cheekpieces which hopefully should help settle him. Again, most of these haven’t even hit an RPR in the 50s recently, so this race really won’t take much winning. If Stott can position him closer to the pace, I would be disappointed if we didn’t hit the frame today.
July 26th Selection (2) – Speech Room 9-1 UNPLACED
5.35 Wolverhampton Sunday – Speech Room 9-1 (1pt win) Hills with 10-1 available B365
An open looking 3yo handicap again here but Speech Room looks sure to be a better horse up in trip. He has the best form here for me, finishing behind Pablo Escobarr (bolted up next time out, RPR 95) on debut and beating Table Mountain last time out who won easily at Ascot yesterday. That second run can also be upgraded, as he swerved left at the start and was ridden wide. Those two efforts and breeding suggest the selection should love this 1m6f trip and first time cheekpieces for his handicap debut suggest connections may be hopeful of a better run in this slightly weaker affair. An opening mark of 67 looks lenient and Meehan is in fair form of late (3-13, 23%) – he spoke positively about the selection in his blog last week, stating that 67 was a good mark and he expected him to have a great chance before being declared a non runner. Market support would be encouraging.
July 26th Selection (1) – Gorham’s Cave 22-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.05 Wolverhampton Sunday – Gorham’s Cave 22-1 (0.5pt each way) Betfair, Paddy, BetVictor and Hills, 20-1 the rest
A fairly weak race here over 1m4f, but if ready to go, Gorham’s Cave could be a very good bet today. He is consistently very keen in his races, but has still managed to run well when previously with Ali Stronge, notching a 2nd and 4th place at Kempton over this trip last year off 3lb higher marks. Considering how keen he is, if he managed to settle, he would have won those two easily. It was a similar story on his debut for Gary Moore at Lingfield last month on his first run after a wind op – Hector Crouch took a hard pull, but never asked the horse for an effort despite staying on okay from the back of the field. That was coming back from a 400 day break, so he can definitely come on for that. No headgear has been applied today, but if he can settle better, I’d be surprised to see him out of the places. Gary Moore had a similar winner at 33-1 recently with Fume, who won on his 2nd start after a wind op once fresh. Catch The Cuban is returning to the flat but I am not convinced with his form and he has plenty to prove, as do most of this field. This is more of a hit or miss selection, so I am hoping Gary Moore has this one lined up for today, but at the price it is definitely worth a small each way play.
July 24th Selection (2) – Contrast 3-1 2ND
3.00 Beverley Friday – Contrast 10-3 (1.5pt win) Betfred and Boyles for best odds with 3-1 elsewhere
The top three at the head of the market deserve to be there, but Contrast made good use of his falling mark when striking with back to back wins last autumn and he remains well handicapped. Following his reappearance run here last month after 7 months off, he drops to only 1lb above his winning turf mark and this is probably his weakest assignment in a while. It was only last year he was rated as high as 88 so there is still plenty of scope to take advantage of in the handicap. Global Exceed is trying this trip for the first time so comes with an added risk, while Imperial Focus only broke his maiden at the 36th time of asking three runs back and has something to prove again today. The rest are really hard to make claims for and plenty will struggle with this trip. I expect him to go close today under Nathan Evans.
July 24th Selection (1) – Sea of Marmoon 7-1 2ND
3.20 Newmarket Friday – Sea of Marmoon 7-1 (1pt win) B365, Skybet and BetVictor, 6-1 available elsewhere
This is just about the highest quality of race you’ll find me looking at, but I couldn’t ignore this 3yo only handicap and previous winner for us Sea of Marmoon looks to have a decent chance today. She won from a prominent position at Newcastle over this trip after 8 months off but failed to back that up last time out. You can easily forgive that run though, as it was over a non staying 1m6f and only 6 days after her win beforehand, so it probably came too soon. Her novice form at Bath would place her nicely in this race – she beat 88 rated Passing Fashion and finished behind Midnights Legacy (rated 90, won all 3 starts since), Damage Control (88, won since) and So I Told You (90, won since). She looks the clear front runner here with most of the others often tending to sit behind the pace and the jockey booking of William Buick is also encouraging of a good run. Buick is 6-15 (40%) when riding for Johnston on the Newmarket July course, with a profit of 12.25pts to SP and an A/E of 1.86. Obviously there are plenty of unexposed types in here, but I would say we have some of the best form and Johnston’s can bounce back from disappointing runs every now and then. We are also getting plenty of weight and I am hoping Buick can put in a good shift dictating the pace from the front.
July 22nd Selection (2) – Lady Nectar 4-1 WON
7.00 Catterick Wednesday – Lady Nectar 4-1 (1pt win) B365 and Hills, 7-2 available Betfred, Coral, Lad, Boyles for best odds
A reasonably open handicap here but I can’t look past the blinding effort that Lady Nectar put in at Beverley last week. I was intending to tip her until I saw she was drawn in stall 15 of 15 – from that wide and being held up, she ran incredibly well to only get beat by a short head. She also had to switch direction on two occasions when being denied a clear run, so overall, this performance can be massively upgraded. She will be penalised 4lb for that in the future, so being 4lb well in connections have sent her out again quite quickly. The 3yos get a 5lb WFA allowance here which will aid the selections cause and as a result she’s getting weight from most of these, despite a standout RPR (65) last time out and top speed rating. If she can get out quickly and Hollie can place her more prominently, she should only have to run to the same level of her previous outing to win this granted a clear run. It wouldn’t surprise me if she went off a bigger price.
July 22nd Selection (1) – Jigs Princess 5-1 UNPLACED
4.30 Catterick Wednesday – Jigs Princess 5-1 (1pt win) B365, Hills, BetVictor, Betfred, Lad and Corals
It’s been a long time since I was able to look at a 2yo only handicap and I did use to have a soft spot for them. Many here can improve for the new trip but Jigs Princess has standout form claims. Her debut worked out well behind Thunder of Niagara (6th of 15 in Group 2 last month), Rebel at Dawn (RPR 83, won next time out) and Captain Magnum (rated 78). She also finished ahead of Ventura Mutiny (won since, RPR 74). Her performance when dropped back to the minimum trip three weeks ago can be upgraded as she fared the best of those held up, despite running green when staying on inside the final furlong – that was behind Soldierpoy (placed in Class 2 on Sunday, RPR 80) and ahead of a few that have ran much better since. She should love this 7 furlong trip and the substance of her opponents’ form doesn’t stack up relative to ours. An opening mark of just 61 after two runs may massively underestimate this filly and Robinson had a winner for Ellison here a week ago.
July 20th Selection (2) – Hachert 6-1 WON
3.20 Ayr Monday – Hachert 6-1 (1.5pt win) B365 and BetVictor with 11-2 Betfair, Paddy, Betfred, Betway, Corals and Lad
I remember Hachert was nibbled at in the betting before the off last week and he ran really well considering how keen he was in a first time hood. He wasn’t tried hard and with an unchanged mark, he could go one better today in a weaker race, especially with the hefty 7lb WFA allowance now running against older horses. There isn’t too much pace here so I’m hoping Fanning positions him closer to the front this time, but similarly to Angels Faces we are getting plenty of weight and most of these aren’t in great form lately. The selection actually started off with Ger Lyons in France and is pretty well bred relative to the quality of this race. His dam won over this 7f as a 2yo and is a Group 3 winner – he’s also a half brother to winners Autun (RPR 95) and Luxuriant (RPR 84) so you’d expect him to be a fair bit better than this mark of 59. If we obtain a good early position and settle better, we should run a really nice race.
July 20th Selection (1) – Angel’s Faces 4-1 UNPLACED
2.20 Ayr Monday – Angel’s Faces 4-1 (1.5pt win) B365, Lad and BetVictor with 7-2 available Betfred, Boyles, Corals
Grant Tuer had a slow start since racing came back, but got off the mark with Mokaman last week and I think he can get another winner today. The 3yos get a decent 5lb WFA allowance here and Angels Faces makes the most appeal. On her reappearance last month she did well to finish a close 2nd behind an improver, faring best of those held up and she even got bumped out of the stalls. That looked like a fitness run over the minimum trip and the 6 furlongs looks perfect for her today. Only raised 1lb to a mark of 59, I think she is looking very well handicapped and ready to strike. My Dandy Doc won last time out, but that was at a big price of 50-1 so I don’t think they were expecting it. She may also have been advantaged by being held up from a wide draw at Doncaster – those conditions suit that track and she’s been raised 6lb on the back of it. Star Cracker is surely better on the AW and although starved of a clear run LTO, he wasn’t racing against much and needs a step forward to win this. Jordan Electrics and Kolossus are two that should set a strong pace and the former is better at Hamilton with it being a front runner track. I’m hoping PJ can come with a late run on the stands side and we are getting plenty of weight from most of these.
July 17th Selection (5) – Bad Company 15-2 E.W UNPLACED
7.05 Leicester Friday – Bad Company 8-1 (1pt each way) Betfair, Paddy and B365 with 15-2 Betfred
The 3yos get a fairly hefty 8lb weight for age allowance in this and I am surprised to see Burguillos open up such a short priced favourite. Preference of the younger runners goes to Bad Company, who has the best RPRs here and ran well on his first try at a mile on the AW two weeks ago. He was keeping on but hampered when looking like challenging in the final furlong – that was behind horses rated 63, 62 and 61, so a fair bit better than what he faces today. His second career run on good-firm ground was also promising, looking outpaced over 6f behind the likes of Cotai Again (75), Kassab (72), Phuket Power (80) and Dance Fever (91). He gets first time blinkers today which should aid concentration and I think we should be closer to the 4-1 mark here. Blairlogie could go well, but a 7lb claimer on his penultimate run and 2lb higher mark effectively makes him 9lb higher than his best effort over C&D last month. Liam’s Lass has a 5lb penalty and her inexperienced jockey is enough to put me off attempting another career best. Parknacilla is miles better on the AW and very poorly handicapped while Pettinger is uncertain to get this trip.
July 17th Selection (4) – Madeeh 16-1 E.W PLACED
8.35 Leicester Friday – Madeeh 16-1 (0.5pt each way) General
Philip Kirby is yet to have a winner since the return of racing last month, but the change of scenery for Madeeh today looks a sign of intent that they are expecting a better run. He started out with Sir Michael Stoute at a very decent level around this time a year ago, running at 10f and looking a bit outpaced and staying on on a couple of occasions. Since moving to Kirby’s yard, his mark has tumbled to a career low mark of 55 running on the AW since November and his last three runs were clearly over insufficient trips. The tongue tie that was left off for his last two runs goes back on and he steps up significantly in trip to 12f back on turf. There are slight reservations concerning the jockey, but if this is a plot then the horse may be good enough to win without an experienced handler. The quality here isn’t great and considering it was only 6 months ago the selection was running okay in higher grades, off a mark of 55 it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see him go well here with conditions looking much more positive. If he gets this trip I think he can run into a place at the least.
July 17th Selection (3) – Cheshire 10-1 E.W UNPLACED
1.10 Beverley Friday – Cheshire 10-1 (1pt each way) B365, Betfair, Paddy
I like the look of this 3yo only staying handicap, with every horse untried at the 2 mile trip. From watching replays and studying breeding, I have tried to piece the puzzle together. Single was staying on over 14f last time and you’d expect her to get this trip the most off evidence so far. However, she didn’t really beat anything and she is not certain to get the trip on breeding. Frankenstella cost an awful lot and has disappointed so far – an opening mark of 64 looks steep although she could simply be much better at the new trip. Boulevard Beauty will also appreciate the new trip but she simply doesn’t look good enough with a peak RPR of just 48 – she also only got beat by a 50 rated horse last time out. I think Cheshire will appreciate this distance the most today with his standout performance being over 12f at Doncaster a month ago. She raced in midfield, but dropped away slightly when looking outpaced 5f out. This didn’t faze her though, as she stayed on strongly in the final furlong from a wide trip either side of a couple of very well bred horses for Mark Johnston and John Gosden. Well backed into 2-1 earlier this month on her previous outing, she was tailed off when Josephine Gordon looked down as if something was amiss early on – she reported the selection was never travelling, perhaps due to a cut in the ground. We get first time cheekpieces today and the slower run race will play to our strengths with Kevin Stott (8-43, 19%) back on.
July 17th Selection (2) – Dreamboat Girl 14-1 E.W UNPLACED
5.05 Leicester Friday – Dreamboat Girl 14-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfred with 16-1 available Betfair and Paddy all paying 5 places, Skybet and Betway also 14-1 5 places
Most wouldn’t even bother spending any time looking at this horse, however after a bit of digging, I found a statistic that is very difficult to see past. Rae Guest is 4-5 (80%) with handicap debutants at Leicester, with those wins at 9-4, 11-4, 6-1 and 11-1 and an A/E of a whopping 4.21, showing they massively outperform expectations. Dreamboat Girl has been given three quiet runs over sprint trips on the All-weather, two of which she was held up in last place and ridden under hands and heels. Guest had a similar runner to this in Rosa Gold who had three runs on the AW and won on handicap debut on turf two weeks ago (followed up again since). Today the selection steps up to 7 furlongs and her breeding suggests she will benefit greatly from this – her dam was a listed winner and 2yo winner (RPR 104) over a mile and the selection is related to others who have won at similar trips. Guest is in great form lately (3-10, 33%) and he books Cieren Fallon up for the first time in this extremely weak race. The fact alone that Rock Warbler (peak RPR 48 in last year) is a single figure price in an 18 runner race tells you everything you need to know about the quality of this event. With 5 places on offer, we could go very well if she is indeed a handicap plot, but you’d think the market will be a good indicator here.
July 17th Selection (1) – Pivotal Art 12-1 E.W PLACED
12.35 Beverley Friday – Pivotal Art 12-1 (1pt each way) Betfair, Paddy, Boyles, Betfred all paying 5 places as advised, Coral, Lad 4 places
In this 17-runner event over the minimum trip at Beverley, you would be mad to side with a horse drawn out wide. Of the lower drawn runners, few tempt. Newgate Angel is incredibly unreliable and an 18 race maiden and you can say the same for Chillon Castle. The Grey Bay is an interesting win bet, but at the prices preference is for Pivotal Art, who’s best showing in his first three runs was over C&D a month ago, recording top RPR for this race and not given a hard time when he looked like being eased in the final furlong. The form of that has mixed messages, but it was full of fairly unexposed types and I think he can run really well if getting the breaks in first time cheekpieces today. His debut has also worked out well relative to this and his handicap debut two weeks ago can be excused as he hung right and was ridden wide over a trip too far. I think a lot in this race have got next to no chance of winning and I would have the selection down as an 11-2 shot here.
July 15th Selection – Trumpet’s Call 28-1 E.W UNPLACED
3.20 Catterick Wednesday – Trumpet’s Call 28-1 (0.5pt each way) BetVictor and Ladbrokes, with 33-1 available B365
Rebecca Menzies tends to do well with new recruits and I think Trumpets Call, who has been in the tracker, could be underestimated today. It is clear from his 5 career runs what conditions he performs best in – his only two decent performances came over 7f and good/good-firm ground which it looks like he will get today. Those two runs saw him finish behind the likes of Wyclif (98), Dulas (83, won next time out), Law of Peace (85), Well Prepared (78) and most notably Highest Ground (107, 2nd in Group 2). He probably needed the run last month after 9 months off and I hoping first time blinkers should also bring about an improved showing today. Menzies does well at Catterick (8-43, 19%) and her last runner in a Maiden Auction won, also ridden by Cam Hardie. Obviously, due to the nature of the race, a few in here are becoming a bit tricky to win with and a couple may be ridden with handicaps in mind such as Habanero Star and Tagovailoa. My Friend Stan looks quite exposed and has a lot to prove, while the top two in the market have been consistent without winning. I think we could run into a place today if the blinkers have the desired effect and we should never be a 33-1 shot here. Still a speculative pick, but not much harm done if he doesn’t win.
July 13th Selection (2) – Star Citizen 5-2 UNPLACED
12.05 Ayr Monday – Star Citizen 5-2 (2pt win) Betfair, Paddy, Coral, Lad, Betfred with 11-4 available B365
I would usually choose to oppose a last time out winner, but I would be surprised if Star Citizen didn’t follow up today. He won over course and distance last week on the bridle and he races off the same mark here – he also recorded the top speed rating out of these. If the cheekpieces have the same effect today, I can’t see how he can’t produce a similar performance if having no issues with the better ground. The main danger is Pavers Pride, who has been penalised 3lb for his recent 2nd places at Hamilton and Beverley. I think he benefited from being up with the pace at those tracks and Ayr may be a different challenge, especially with a penalty. Shesadabber similarly may also struggle here up 5lb and she didn’t beat much at all last time out. I would be disappointed if we don’t win this.
July 13th Selection (1) – Dandy’s Angel 40-1 E.W UNPLACED
2.20 Ayr Monday – Dandy’s Angel 40-1 (0.5pt each way) Hills, Betfair, Paddy and Betway all paying 4 places as advised, 33-1 available Lad and Corals
The horse with top RPR in this race has somehow opened up at 40-1. Her first two runs were pretty impressive for this level – she came from a long way back on debut (RPR 70), faring best of those out the back quite noticeably. Lasting Legacy behind her won next time out and is rated 78 and the winner is rated 80 which is decent form for this grade. Her second run was also a good effort, staying on one pace behind 99 rated Stormy Girl with a couple of 70+ rated horses in behind. I actually tipped her on her third start on the AW when drifting alarmingly before the off – she was probably ridden with handicaps in mind that day. An opening mark of 69 after an 8 month break looked steep on her reappearance at Thirsk two weeks ago. However, David Nolan was happy to drop her right out to the back and didn’t ask for an effort when falling well off the pace halfway through. She stayed on well enough from that far back under hands and heels and is sure to strip fitter for that today, especially with the new 7f trip looking like a great help. A revised mark of 65 with a 5lb claimer on board would make her much better handicapped here and a high draw is by no means a disadvantage over this course and distance. If she runs to the level of her first two attempts, I can’t see why she can’t run a great race here against a field that doesn’t have the best of form relative to ours. 40-1 is a ridiculous price.
July 12th Selection (2) – Uncle Bernie 18-1 E.W UNPLACED
3.35 Lingfield Sunday – Uncle Bernie 18-1 (0.75pt each way) Betfair, Paddy, Boyles and Betfred all paying 4 places as advised, 20-1 available B365 and 18-1 Coral, Lad all best odds
There are a few in here who are not certain to get the trip such as Walk It Talk It, Double Legend and Phoenix Dawn. I am happy to take them on as well as Monsieur Fox who is 0-18 and has a peak RPR of just 49 in his last 10 runs. Hidden Pearl is another maiden and being drawn out wide will make it harder for her to make the running – she also gets penalised 2lb without winning last time out. Que Quieres may be better at Chelmsford and over shorter trips and the rest would have to improve to take this. I think Uncle Bernie is a really solid each way bet at the price on offer – he has dropped to just 1lb below his last winning mark and returns to the scene of his last course and distance win. He will be fitter today and looks to have retained plenty of ability this season as a 10yo. He may need a decent pace to aim at being held up the back, but he goes well on the All-weather over this 2m trip and rarely runs a bad race when fit so I would have him closer to around 15-2 here. Final Choice came out and won easily yesterday at 33-1 – that form ties in with the selection’s penultimate run here and although he should be fairly well backed today, I wouldn’t be put off if his price didn’t shorten.
July 12th Selection (1) – Perfect Rose 13-2 UNPLACED
3.25 Hamilton Sunday – Perfect Rose 13-2 (1.5pt win) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy with 6-1 available elsewhere
I would rarely look at a race of this level but I am confident Perfect Rose should run a big race today. She caught my attention when I looked at her last time out, returning after a year off. I had a feeling she may need the run and she certainly did, drifting before the off and not being given a hard time, despite running okay from a wide trip. However, her run at Haydock (RPR 78) last year has worked out very well – she outperformed the pace bias making the running from the front and managed to stay on very well to only get beat in the last few strides by now 93 rated Rhea off level weights. In behind was Sacred Dance (79, won next time out), Byzantia (77, placed NTO) and Golden Lips (94, behind Frankly Darling last month), so the form has worked out well for this level. Hamilton has a bias favouring front runners, so I expect Fanning to dictate from the front and fend off challenges from behind and over the new mile trip, I hope to see a game attitude from her today. Finery has something to prove having only won at Southwell and running no sort of race last month. Antico Lady is still 9lbs above her highest winning mark and concedes a 9lb weight for age allowance to the 3yos. Reclaim Victory’s form isn’t quite good enough for me here and her trainer/jockey are both badly out of form. 13-2 was a great price as I would have her around 3-1 if going for the win today.
July 11th Selection (2) – On The Right Track 22-1 E.W PLACED
8.15 Salisbury Saturday – On The Right Track 11-1 (0.75pt each way) B365, Betfair, Paddy, Betfred, Corals all paying 4 places as advised with best odds
This selection looks like another solid each way bet at the price and can go very well if taking to the step up in trip. It is interesting that his half-brother Bayston Hill, also trained by Usher, won on his first try at this trip, so I am hoping they are trying a similar approach here. He has some great pieces of form as a 2yo, especially his debut when finishing behind the likes of 88 rated Evening Sun, Hukum (97), Imrahor (87) and Cherokee Trail (94), as well as 79 rated Millionaire Waltz in behind. On his reappearance run last month after 6 months off, he looked outpaced from a favourable position but stayed in the final furlong, hinting this new 10f trip may suit more. He should also strip fitter for that and drops to a mark of 55. Charlie Bennett also had a big priced winner yesterday which should hopefully give him a confidence boost. The competition is average at best – bar Bad Attitude and By Jove, most of these are badly out of form and not evening hitting 50+ RPRs. It may be that By Jove was advantaged by a rival bumping two of his other opponents last time, causing them to lose ground and Bad Attitude needs to transfer his form to turf after a 4 month break. We have decent place claims here at the least.
July 11th Selection (1) – Redesdale Rebel 11-1 E.W UNPLACED
6.30 Newcastle Saturday – Redesdale Rebel 11-1 (0.75pt each way) B365 and Betfred both paying 4 places as advised with best odds, Coral and Lad 10-1 4 places best odds
I think there are a few at the head of the market worth taking on here – Redzone won on his first turf handicap run but has to deal with a 5lb rise back at a track he hasn’t performed well at off lower marks previously. Kaafy is looking exposed as a maiden now and Rich Approach may want a stronger pace and he is probably better over longer trips. A decent each way bet would be Redesdale Rebel, a course and distance winner in January this year and he ran okay against better horses than this for his nursery debut. I am happy to put a line through his Southwell run and his run on turf two weeks ago should blow the cobwebs away for this. He finished behind a couple of these that day but wasn’t really put into the race being unusually held up and will be much better on his return to this scene. A mark of 58 would make him now very well handicapped in my view and I expect him to be positioned more prominently today. Susan Corbett has had a couple of winners lately (2-3, 67%) and the selection is related to a few smart types including two time listed winner Professor (RPR 114). We have plenty more scope for improvement and I would have him around an 11-2 shot here.
July 10th Selection – New Millenium 5-1 UNPLACED
8.05 Bath Friday – New Millenium 5-1 (1.5pt win) B365 and Lad with 9-2 Betfred, Corals, Betfair and Paddy, all best odds
Long time followers may remember this was a winning NAP for me at 13-2 over fences when I used to dabble over the obstacles last year. He had a good finish to his hurdling campaign last year, winning his last two outings and his reappearance run a month ago over a mile at Kempton was quite clearly a fitness run to freshen him up for this big step up in trip for his handicap debut on the flat. Tom Marquand has been booked which is a positive sign they are expecting a big run, especially with the usual cheekpieces back on and if adopting his usual front running tactics, we could steal an easy lead here. The selection is related to three winners over this trip or further on the flat and related to 6 horses notching RPRs between 81 and 103. An opening mark of 60 should underestimate him being rated 117 and 120 over fences and hurdles respectively and he could potentially have up to 20lbs in hand here. This race is pretty weak – I don’t think Capricorn Prince, Essgee Nics or Blue Beirut are reliable at all and their recent RPRs suggest they should be much bigger prices. Esspeegee needs to back up his win last time out and Ben Curtis had to make him work for that win, so I am happy to take him on with a less experienced jockey on board and we get 4lbs from him. Rosie Royale looks the best of the remainder at an each way price but may want some rain which I doubt she will get today.
July 9th Selection (2) – Marble Bay 33-1 E.W UNPLACED
6.30 Chepstow Thursday – Marble Bay 33-1 (0.5pt each way) B365, Hills and BetVictor, 28-1 the rest
Here is a stat for you – Rossa Ryan is 7-11 (64%) when riding for David Evans in handicaps at Chepstow. They produce a profit of +47.17pts to BFSP and a BF A/E of 3.98, showing they massively outperform expectations. Rossa Ryan has four rides for Evans tomorrow, two of which are handicaps and the other two have no chance in the novice races (66-1 and 100-1 shots). The first handicap runner is Lihou in the 5.30, who looks to be unsuited by the 5f trip and may struggle. That leaves Marble Bay, who although disappointing in handicaps so far, looks overpriced today. You can put a line through her last run at Southwell and she was ridden very wide at Lingfield on handicap debut – they may have expected a better run there as Ben Curtis was riding who was on fire in January. She drops another 3lb to a mark of 58 and makes her turf debut tomorrow – I am hoping that will bring out a better showing and the stat quoted is too good to ignore here. Her debut run has also worked out very well behind Magical Morning (rated 99, won twice since), Lord Neidin (77), Fruition (77, won since), Raatea (85, won since) and a couple in behind her also improved in their next few runs. This is a very weak race as none of these have been running to a consistent level lately bar Blairlogie. A speculative pick at long odds, but she is worth chancing here.
July 9th Selection (1) – Caribeno 3-1 3RD
8.30 Chepstow Thursday – Caribeno 3-1 (2pt win) Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy
This 3yo colt looks like a typical Prescott improver for his handicap debut stepping up to 1m4f. He has had three runs at insufficient trips of 7f and a mile and was outpaced under mostly hands and heels riding. He gets an opening mark of 57 for his handicap debut and his breeding suggests he will make into a much better horse at staying trips. His dam won at this trip, including a Group 3 on both good and heavy ground (RPR 111), so he should be fine if there is a bit of rain tomorrow. Cheekpieces go on for nursery debut and that looks like a sign of intent that they are going for a win first time out. We already know what kind of level a few of these are running to at this trip and we are completely unexposed while also receiving plenty of weight – if running to the best of his ability we should be winning this at a shorter price than the advised 3-1.
July 7th Selection – Mykindofsunshine 3-1 UNPLACED
8.15 Leicester Tuesday – Mykindofsunshine 3-1 (2pt win) BetVictor, Betfred and Boyles, 11-4 the rest
Not a normal write up but this now looks the clear pick with the original selection a NR and he should be winning this convincingly. Just hope he doesn’t make the running and sits behind them.
Having had a second look, he got beat by a now 71 rated horse last time and was giving 2lbs. Ghepardo was over a length behind as well and he’s rated 63. Ours was rated in the 70s less than a year ago with RPRs that would wipe the floor with this lot – the top rated horse today is rated just 50! We should also come on for that reappearance run and I would be shocked if we didn’t win this. We should be about 6-4 here for me.
July 7th Selection – Fiery Breath 9-2 Non-runner
8.15 Leicester Tuesday – Fiery Breath 9-2 (2pt win) B365, Skybet, BetVictor and Boyles
There looks to be plenty of pace here, with several potentially wanting to take the lead in Cool Strutter, Mykindofsunshine, Teepee Time and Alba Del Sole. The 5 furlong straight at Leicester ranks 28th of 31 in the country for front runners, meaning it massively favours hold up horses. Fiery Breath looks the best of those likely to be held up by quite some way – he drops back to the trip of his only turf win off only 1lb higher and Darragh Keenan, who won on him that time regains the ride. High draws are also slightly favoured here which is another positive and he remains completely unexposed at the trip being 1-1 over 5f. All signs point to a good run here with a strong pace on the cards. The only danger for me would be Mykindofsunshine, who although a maiden, has recorded some decent RPRs in this and may be well handicapped for his current trainer. He does like to be close to the pace though and this 5f may prove to be too stiff for him. I expect Darragh to come with a late run as the others tire in the final furlong. A reverse forecast with Mykindofsunshine may not be the worst idea in the world.
July 6th Selection (2) – Speedymining 12-1 E.W UNPLACED
6.00 Thirsk Monday – Speedymining 12-1 General (0.75pt each way)
We all know I like a handicap debut and this looks like no exception. A very weak Class 6 event, I expect Speedymining to put his best foot forward today. He hung badly left on his last two runs and the application of a first time tongue tie should see him settle better. The step up in trip to 6f also looks like a great move, looking outpaced previously but staying on at the finish last time. Bryan Smart has had two handicap debut winners at Thirsk from his last three, with winners at 7-2 and 6-1 so it looks like he is expecting a much better run today. It is also very interesting that out of the 7 races run over this course and distance with ten runners, stall 10 has won 4 of those 7 races, backing up the general bias for high draws. We get stall 10 today and if we obtain a good position near the front, we may be difficult to beat. The main danger could come from Zuckerberg who looks well suited by the drop to 6f and can come on for his reappearance two weeks ago. Deevious Beau also could get involved with first time blinkers but having said that, he and most here would need to improve to win.
July 6th Selection (1) – Independence Day 3-1 2ND
4.55 Thirsk Monday – Independence Day 3-1 (2pt win) B365, Lad, Corals, Betfred all best odds
Over this course and distance at Thirsk, there is a very large bias for high draws, one of the biggest in the country. The favourite is drawn in stall 1 and if being held up again, I think she may struggle today. Preference is instead for Independence Day, who returns to turf for the first time in nearly a year. Although he hasn’t won since March 2018, I think this could be the day for the selection. His last run was interesting in that Haynes was only riding under hands and heels and it looked like he didn’t bother trying to steer him round the outside for a clear run once running into the back of a couple of horses. The whip was only used once the race was lost. He used to be a much better horse, placing in a Group 3 in Curragh and I think the move to turf will see him in a much better light today. He placed last time on the grass off a 5lb higher mark and his last two speed ratings are much better than his AW equivalents in the last year. Although he has recently been held up, when he has won he was tracking the leader so I hope they don’t sit too far back today. He has a few standout RPRs recently in this field and this is probably his weakest assignment yet off a career low mark of 49.
July 4th Selection (2) – Jaaneh 6-1 UNPLACED
7.40 Chelmsford Saturday – Jaaneh 6-1 (1pt win) General with 13-2 available BetVictor
We were on this selection last time out at Doncaster; given she was pretty disappointing that day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her drift a bit in the market. However, I am willing to give her another chance as I think she will make a much better horse on the All-weather. She is bred to be much much, much better than what she’s shown so far – she is a full sister to AW winner Alrajaa (RPR 113) and half sister to AW winner Etaab (RPR 107), as well as two other smart winners. Her dam Ethaara also won on the AW and won a listed race (RPR 104). I am happy she is stepping up to a mile now and the trip should suit off the evidence of her first three runs and breeding. She was well backed a couple of times as a 2yo, including on debut so they must think a decent amount of her and this new mark of 60 could prove to be silly if she improves for the surface change. Haggas is on fire of late (13-41, 32%) and this race isn’t too strong. The main dangers are Arafi and Ascraeus but I think we may be underestimated here. Hopefully we see some market support before the off and Dane can position her nicely up with the pace. It would be a concern if we are right out the back of the field here.
July 4th Selection (1) – Mayson Mount 20-1 E.W PLACED
5.40 Chelmsford Saturday – Mayson Mount 20-1 (0.5pt each way) B365, Lad, Corals, Betfred all best odds
It’s been a long time since I got involved in a race with 16 runners in it but I think we have a great opportunity here. Quite a few of the market leaders are drawn out very wide and, with 16 runners, that’s not a great position to be in, especially with the front runner bias at Chelmsford and many of them being hold up horses. It would make sense to back a prominent runner from a more favourable draw and that’s partly why I really like the chances of Mayson Mount today. He has the top RPR here (70) from his recent run at Newmarket against the slightly favourable hold up bias when making all behind some very nice prospects – Mark of Gold, Dyami (rated 82) and Haqeeqy (RPR 98, rated 92). He was only pushed out under hands and heels riding and Josephine only hit the whip once after he was beaten. That was his first run after a gelding op and a 7 month break so he is entitled to come on for that. He goes straight into a handicap after only two runs off what I think is a pretty lenient mark of 64. The price on offer of 20-1 is simply way too big against plenty more exposed types who don’t have the form to stack up against us. I make us a 13-2 shot here and hope he jumps out and makes the running.
July 3rd Selection – Simba Samba 9-2 WON
7.30 Wolverhampton Friday – Simba Samba 9-2 (2pt win) B365, Skybet, Lad, Hills, Corals, Betfred and Betway
I couldn’t believe it when Alba Del Sole opened up as the favourite in this race – his win on Tuesday at Leicester was without starting stalls and he started a few lengths in front of the other runners. He only beat a bunch of 40-50 rated horses and was receiving weight from most of them. One One Seven’s yard and jockey are badly out of form and he needs a strong pace to be in contention which I don’t think he will get today. The clear pick for me is Simba Samba, the only one here who has been running in a couple of higher grade races lately and has standout form claims. He fared best of those up with the pace last time out when finishing 3rd, with hold up performers finishing 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th. He was either side of 65 rated horses that day, a much higher standard than this. He also has standout form a year ago at Yarmouth when finishing behind now 87 rated Tone The Barone and in front of 70 rated Invincible Larne – that works out very well in the context of this race. He has won on tapeta before so he should have no problems here and McBride does well at Wolverhampton (39-242, 16.12%) compared to his usual 12% strike rate. McBride is also very profitable at the track with a profit of +186.22pts to BFSP and a BF A/E of 1.27. Hopefully we sit just behind the leaders and I expect Callum Shephard to quicken away from them comfortably in the home straight.
July 2nd Selection (4) – Our Dave 11-4 WON
1.50 Catterick Thursday – Our Dave 11-4 (2pt win) BetVictor and Betfred with 5-2 elsewhere
The selection Our Dave is a course and distance winner who looks to have a great chance of getting a second career win today. He boasts the best form here and has run well in his two runs this month – his penultimate run saw him get hampered a couple of times and he was very keen after a long break. He settled better last time out but failed to see out the mile trip so the drop back to 7f looks positive today. His mark drops 2lb to only 3lb above his cosy C&D win and this is a pretty weak race for him to assert his dominance from the front end again. Inductive needs to improve for the switch to turf and the rest have been pretty frustrating, although a few are still unexposed and could pop up and win a race. The selection has also proven he goes well on soft ground which it looks likely he will get today come race time. It should at least be good-soft. I expect him to be up with the pace and go very close today.
July 2nd Selection (3) – Deftera Lad 11-1 E.W WON
7.30 Wolverhampton – Deftera Lad 11-1 (0.75pt each way) Skybet, BetVictor, Corals, Betfred, Betfred, Betway and Boyles
This is another very weak race that may underestimate our selection in the market. The 3yos get a 9lb WFA allowance, putting our selection at a slight disadvantage. However, Deftera Lad’s last 4 runs have all been after very lengthy breaks and this is only his 3rd start for current trainer Sylvester Kirk. As a result, this is his first run fit since 2016 and has dropped to a career low mark of 46. His run last time out caught the eye, making rapid headway about 8 wide on the home turn at Chelmsford, before his effort fading out inside the final furlong. The drop back to 7f may see him in a better light today and Wolverhampton looks sure to suit his running style more than Chelmsford. Hollie Doyle has been booked, which is encouraging that they may be expecting a much better run today and he really does not have much to beat here being a 0-50 event. Admittedly, the favourite looks difficult to oppose, but is drawn out wide and his RPR two weeks ago doesn’t stick out like a sore thumb in this. With a clear run and improved showing, I think Hollie should get the best out of the selection and can at least run into a place.
July 2nd Selection (2) – Secret Identity 3-1 UNPLACED
12.45 Catterick Thursday – Secret Identity 3-1 (2pt win) most with 10-3 B365
I like the look of this race and Catterick is a front runner’s dream up to a mile, with the minimum trip having the strongest bias. Secret Identity is the only out and out pacesetter here and boasts the best form in the race – although it may look awful at first look being a 0-52 event. She should be able to dictate from the front and has run well in defeat in her last two runs. The return to turf looks a good move with much better RPRs on the grass as a 2yo, albeit for her previous trainer and first time blinkers may reignite some of that form. Plenty of rain overnight should also hopefully enhance our chances, making it harder for her rivals to come from behind. Phil Dennis has ridden 3 winners for Mullineaux in their last 5 runners together and they both remain in good form. Farewell Kiss is a danger but I don’t think she wants to be sitting too far back here and has a much longer absence of 291 days to overcome. We should be taking this.
July 2nd Selection (1) – African Sun 10-1 UNPLACED
4.25 Catterick Thursday – African Sun 10-1 (1pt win) Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy, Betfred, Betway and Boyles
This is an extremely weak Classified stakes and our pick African Sun looked overpriced at 10-1. The 3yos get a hefty 13lb weight for age allowance here and we have a lot of scope for improvement up in trip. The selection had three quick runs within the space of 24 days in November, each over an insufficient mile trip. He stepped up to 10f on his reappearance and failed to get involved, but that was after a 200 day break and again out the back at Chelmsford where it is quite difficult to come from behind. Tomorrow there are several potential sources of improvement – a step up to 12f, application of first time blinkers, a surface change to turf and Ben Curtis is booked up for the first time. Ed Dunlop is also 6-16 (38%) at Catterick – a very impressive strike rate and he is profitable to follow when applying blinkers for the first time to his horses on the flat turf (+34.79pts). Curtis has one more ride for Dunlop earlier on the card but I am not sure he will get the big step up to 2 miles, so this looks like his best chance of a winner today. Hopefully we don’t sit right out the back.
July 1st Selection – Broken Rifle 25-1 E.W PLACED
5.10 Kempton Wednesday – Broken Rifle 25-1 (0.5pt each way) B365, Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy, Betfred, Lad, Boyles and Betway
It is fair to say this is a speculative pick. However, there is enough going for him to suggest his price of 25-1 is too big. All of his form is over this 6f trip – his first three runs as a 2yo worked out extremely well for this grade, finishing close to horses such as Sir Boris (106), Above (98), Saqqara King (95), Raahy (92), Ananya (101) and Tomfre (98), as well as many other 80+ rated horses. His third run was particularly eye-catching in that Levey was pushing him out under hands and heels riding, despite challenging with a run. As a result, he started out in handicaps with a mark of 72 and while he still ran well, he failed to progress. Despite his last three runs being very poor, you can find reasons to forgive them – he had two runs at Southwell which he did not take to and then his reappearance run two weeks ago was after a 3 month break over a mile so he is entitled to come on for that and connections probably knew he wouldn’t stay the trip. Today he drops back to 6f and returns to Kempton, the scene of where he recorded his highest speed rating (also the highest in the race) and Sean Levey gets the ride back. Sean is 2-3 when riding for Furtado at Kempton, with wins at 6-1 and 14-1. There isn’t much pace in this and it remains to be seen what running style we will adopt here, but I am hoping we are close to the pace. The selection also gets first time blinkers and he ran well in first time cheekers over this trip in September. If the headgear brings out a better performance, he looks overpriced here in an open 3yo handicap.
June 29th Selection (3) – Gold at Midnight 7-2 UNPLACED
3.30 Yarmouth Monday – Gold at Midnight 7-2 (2pt win) B365, Lad and Corals, 10-3 Betfred
At first this may not seem like an obvious selection, but I think Gold at Midnight is really going to be better at this trip of a mile. Her breeding suggests she should have no problems with it as two of her half sisters stayed 10f and after reading through race comments and replays, she has been consistently outpaced and staying on same pace over 6f and 7f. My confidence of connections thinking she will be better at this trip is strengthened in that Oisin Murphy takes the ride. The selection was rated in the high 70s for the second half of last year and has tumbled down the weights since joining William Muir to a career low mark of 63. It was only January and February this year when she was recording very good RPRs for this grade (69 and 66) and those were off 4lb and 7lb higher marks. This is also her first run in a Class 6. Kennocha is the main danger here, but two of her three wins were after breaks and she has failed to follow up twice now and would need a career best again to take this back up in trip. Catch My Breath is also dangerous with the reapplied cheekpieces from his only win, but he was aided in that he had a stablemate setting a fairly strong pace for him that day. I can’t really see any of the others getting involved and think we can win this if the trip move suits.
June 29th Selection (2) – Blessed To Empress 9-2 UNPLACED
1.30 Yarmouth Monday – Blessed To Empress 9-2 (1.5pt win) Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy and Betfred
After being backed into 4-1Jfav last time out at Chelmsford, it is likely connections were expecting a good run from Blessed To Empress, especially with De Sousa booked who has won on the selection before. However, she was badly hampered on the inside rail and never really got to show her best. The visor was also back on and remains today which is a positive sign, coupled with the fact Oisin Murphy is riding. Her turf mark is 5lb below her last run and just below both her two career turf wins, so she is starting to look well handicapped. Maid Millie may struggle to get this trip and is a risk switching back to turf for only the second time in her career. We were on The Right Choice last time but he disappointed and doesn’t want this step up to 7f – he is a much better horse on the All-weather. Fard is incredibly difficult to get right and the rest are very uninspiring. We should run well here under Oisin.
June 29th Selection (1) – Man of The Sea 6-1 UNPLACED
2.20 Windsor Monday – Man of The Sea 6-1 (1.5pt win) Betfair, Betfred, BetVictor and Paddy, 11-2 elsewhere
I like these kinds of races where you can rule out most of the field. Although she was in my tracker when winning last time, I am happy to take on Delegate The Lady here – I was not expecting her to win last time out and judging by her 20-1 SP, I don’t think anyone else was either. She benefitted from a strong pace that day and had previously shown close to nothing in 11 starts. Our Lord is likely here just to set the pace up for her being a stablemate, but I don’t think that will be enough for her to win here. Perfect Symphony is a better horse on the All-weather and this may be a prep run for when he returns to the polytrack as he hasn’t raced for over 4 months and doesn’t have a good record fresh. You can say the same for Vincenzo Coccotti, who’s record after 3 month+ break reads 0680. Porto Ferro is a course and distance winner but has failed to fire in two outings here this month with RPRs of only 41 and 46. That leaves our selection Man of The Sea, who had a great summer last year in Jersey, recording 4 wins on ground ranging from firm to good with decent RPRs for this level, consistently in the low 60s. Kirby has been booked to ride today – he is profitable to follow when riding for Mulholland with a record of 17 wins from 85 rides (20%), BF P/L +17.85pts and BF A/E of 1.36. He also does very well at Windsor with a 17% strike rate, showing a small profit and is 2-4 for Muholland at Windsor. The selection goes okay fresh with two places from as many runs and I expect him to be going very close here now he has his ideal conditions.
June 28th Selection – Gates Pass 7-1 UNPLACED
4.10 Windsor Sunday – Gates Pass 7-1 (1pt win) BetVictor, Corals and Betfred with 15-2 available B365
Brian Barr has been 361 days without a winner, but that could change today. Gates Pass started life out at Jamie Osborne with an opening mark of 79. He failed to win in 10 starts but his mark dropped to 68 before being sold. Since joining Barr, he has only had 5 starts on the flat, with his reappearance run at Lingfield two weeks ago hinting at a return to form as he finished a close 2nd in a slightly better race than this (RPR 62). There are slight reservations for me here regarding the trip, as on breeding this 10f would look to stretch him. However, his run at Bath last year over a mile gives me confidence – he dictated the running at a fast pace from the front behind some recent winners finishing 4th. The top 3 that day were all held up and benefitted from a strongly run race but the selection managed to stay on same pace at the finish, suggesting he may want further. That was also his first try with this headgear combination of a hood and tongue tie which stays on today. He is entitled to come on for his recent run and this is his second run after a wind op, so he could still improve. Gold Standard has to prove himself on turf today and Settle Petal, although back to form, is also winless on the grass. Hopefully we get up with the pace, we wouldn’t want to be out the back here.
June 27th Selection (2) – Dirchill 6-1 WON
1.05 Redcar Saturday – Dirchill 4-1 (1pt win) General with 9-2 Boyles
We were on this selection last time out when never getting involved, even after being well backed from 9-1 into 7-2Jfav. He looked outpaced and once he knew the chance was gone, it looked like Jason Hart gave him an educational ride. The usual blinkers go back on today and he steps back up to his preferred 6f trip, with Harrison Shaw taking an extra 3lb off who has been making good use of his claim lately (3-18, 17%). I expect him to come on for that disappointing run and hopefully run a much better race now 22lbs below his C&D win here in 2018. It is interesting out of the 11 races run over this trip at Redcar with 10 runners, the outside stall has won 3 of those which we get here – last time we were drawn on the other side in stall 1 so this should help us get into a better position. Northern Queen is unexposed and could take this, but her price is a bit skinny and her trainer/jockey is badly out of form. The rest look very unconvincing but I am hoping Bowring isn’t lining up a plot with one of his two runners.
June 27th Selection (1) – Noble Account 11-2 UNPLACED
7.30 Lingfield Saturday – Noble Account 11-2 (1pt win) Lad, Corals, Betfred with 6-1 B365
Awesomedude won pretty easily at Kempton earlier this week, but I am willing to take him on now he drops back to 10f, has a 5lb penalty and a wide draw at Lingfield. In addition, there is an extreme lack of pace in this race with no certain front runners. However, Noble Account made the running on his penultimate start and almost always races just behind the leaders. Last time out he was held up over course and distance – it is likely they knew he would need this run so just wanted to give him a fitness test from the back of the field. The pace that day was pretty slow, but Noble Account fared best of those out the back quite notably, running into 3rd late on with prominent runners filling the 1st, 2nd and 4th finishing positions. That race was run 5 seconds slower than average for this C&D so he did well to show a turn of foot under hands and heels riding. He gets the inside stall today, so I am hoping he breaks well and makes the running now the surface is standard-slow, or at least sits close to the pace. It’s also worth noting he has been running against better horses than this recently. The only remaining dangers are Pioneering, who is now 8lb higher for his win at Chelmsford and Subliminal who may just find a couple too good here still being above his highest winning mark.
June 26th Selection – Jaaneh 7-2 UNPLACED
1.50 Doncaster Friday – Jaaneh 7-2 (2pt win) B365, Skybet and Hills, 10-3 the rest
In an open looking 3yo handicap, Jaaneh looks to have the most scope for improvement off an opening handicap mark of 62. Her three qualifying runs were all over sprint trips and she looked outpaced and one pace at the finish. However, she was sent off only 7-2 on her debut and 7-4fav last time out despite the drop back to 5f not looking to suit; they must think a lot of her. She is a half-sister to multiple classy horses such as Etaab (listed winner, RPR 107), Estiqaama (RPR 103) and Farsakh (RPR 83). Those were all trained by Haggas himself so he knows this family well. She is also a half-sister to Gosden’s Alrajaa who is 4-9 (RPR 113), and built up a sequence of wins in handicaps. If the selection has ability anywhere near her siblings, she should improve significantly on this step up to 7 furlongs today and could make a mockery of her opening mark. Haggas and Dane also do well here, both operating around a 20% strike rate. La Trinidad has already improved when winning at Beverley last week, but drops back 1.5f in trip today and he did all of his best work in the final furlong last time, so I am happy to take him on, especially with a 6lb rise in the weights. Some Picture is one that could go well at an each way price with Marquand on board but remains at 7f and would need to see market support to be confident.
June 25th Selection (2) – Awsaaf 5-2 WON
4.55 Leicester Thursday – Awsaaf 5-2 (2pt win) Boyles, Coral, Lad, Betfair, Paddy, Betfred (all best odds)
Burtonwood improved to win a shade cosily at Beverley last week, but he gets a 5lb penalty (close to his ceiling mark of 61) and a change of scenery here. Preference is instead for the well handicapped Awsaaf, who pulled off a 3-timer less than a year ago with the last of those wins coming over this trip on turf. That win was in a higher grade off a mark of 67 (RPR 77); the selection drops to a career low mark of 53 here, 14lb lower than that win in a much weaker race. The tongue tie that was applied for all of those three wins goes back on today, coupled with first time blinkers. In addition, Ben Curtis has been booked to ride – it looks like they are expecting a good run and, off this mark, he could bolt up here if anywhere near his best. Out of all of the races at Leicester, the 5f favours hold up horses the most – Monarch Maid should set strong fractions with Teepee Time and Tilsworth Rose also expected to be up there. A decent win bet on a going day.
June 25th Selection (1) – Our Lord 18-1 Non-runner
5.10 Bath Thursday – Our Lord 18-1 (0.75pt each way) Lad, Corals, Betfred Boyles with 20-1 available B365 (all best odds)
Some of you may remember we were on this selection last time when he bombed out at Chelmsford at 40-1. After that run I noted him in my tracker as ‘watch out for when he is entered at Bath with Egan on, may be a big price’. He returns to Bath today, a track he is 3-8 at and Egan is 5-8 for Attwater here with wins on this horse and also Delegate This Lord. The selection won here off marks of 69, 73 and 82 and today runs off only 60. He struggled last time out, but that was after nearly a year off the track and over a furlong further. It’s likely that was a fitness run. Egan keeps the ride and he gets first time blinkers today, offering some encouragement of a better run. Obviously he is badly out of form, but if he attracts some market support, he could be ridiculously well handicapped here. This is probably a slightly better race than last time, but he is worth chancing at the price available and he is without doubt a better horse on turf.
June 24th Selection (3) – Big Time Maybe 9-2 UNPLACED
6.55 Windsor Wednesday – Big Time Maybe 9-2 (1.5pt win) General
Big Time Maybe’s return to form last time was pleasing behind much better horses than he faces today. He kept on either side of multiple 70+ rated performers at Kempton and recorded a decent RPR of 68. He returns to turf today off a 7lb lower mark, with Rhys Clutterbuck taking off a further 7lb. This is a career low mark of 60 for the selection, which he won off at Brighton last year, so he looks very well handicapped. He is also dropping into a Class 6 for the first time in nearly a year against 63 rated Ghepardo who faces a 6lb penalty, a 61 rated Butler horse who looks likely to be kept away for a gamble at a bigger price and 55 rated Firenze Rosa who ran in a weak race LTO. The remainder look risky and don’t inspire me with confidence at all. If running to the best of his ability, he should take this with the ground likely to dry up by race time.
June 24th Selection (2) – Deevious Beau 7-1 UNPLACED
3.20 Hamilton Wednesday – Deevious Beau 15-2 (1pt win) B365 with 7-1 Corals, Lad, Betfred (all best odds)
Deevious Beau looks like a typical handicap debutant that I like to have a play on. He had three very quick runs within 3 weeks over the minimum trip in September last year, not really being put into his races but looking outpaced and staying on well last time out under hands and heels. The form of his second run has worked out nicely – the two horses behind him have both won since and there are several 80+ rated horses that came out of that as well as the winner Magical Journey (rated 94). David Barron has a good record at Hamilton (19-109, 17%) and the booking of in-form Kevin Stott (11-51, 22%) looks a hopeful sign that the selection will be ready to go after a break. Eye Smiling’s form got boosted today and Big City may come on for his reappearance run last week, but I think we have got a nice bit of value with our selection and market support would be encouraging.
June 24th Selection (1) – Socru 8-1 UNPLACED
2.50 Hamilton Wednesday – Socru 8-1 (1pt win) Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor, 15-2 Betfred
It may seem worrying that Easterby is 1-31 in the last two weeks, but he does okay at Hamilton and when partnered with Nathan Evans at the track, the pair have an amazing record of 7-23 (30.43%). They also produce a profit of +24.16pts to BFSP and have a BF A/E of 1.82 at Hamilton. The selection drops into a Class 6 for the first time in his career and the return to turf looks very promising. His only win was on his reappearance run last year off 4lb higher at Doncaster, so he should have no problems coming back from a break here. He also boasted some impressive RPRs last summer and autumn, regularly hitting the 70s in class 4 and 5 events. If he is back to this level tomorrow off a career low mark, he should be winning convincingly. The ground shouldn’t be an obstacle as he goes on a range of surfaces and I think they will be expecting a much better run today. Devil’s Angel is the obvious danger but he is worth taking on at a short price.
June 22nd Selection (2) – Waterfall 28-1 E.W UNPLACED
4.55 Thirsk Monday – Waterfall 28-1 (0.5pt each way) Lad, Boyles, Corals and Betfred all paying 4 places (advised)
This is another speculative pick at a big price that may go well today. She has been off the track since September, but her best showing has by far been her penultimate run on the grass. She kept on one pace behind some decent horses for this grade over 11.5f – Lumination rated 78, Torbellino 67, Knockacullion 84 (won NTO) and 78 rated Riverfront. She gets a step up in trip to 14f today – while this may stretch her it is more likely to suit off the evidence of her last two runs and a couple of her siblings won at 13f with RPRs in the 70s and 80s. She has dropped 5lb since her handicap debut and Ben Curtis is booked for the first time. This offers some hope of an improved performance and Wadham does okay with horses returning from a break between 90 and 300 days (+11.53pts BF).
June 22nd Selection (1) – Napping 25-1 E.W WON
7.00 Windsor Monday – Napping 25-1 (0.75pt each way) B365, Lad, Corals and Skybet
While this is still a speculative pick, I simply cannot believe the price of this selection. Her form on turf reads 5141031. All of those were over this 6f trip apart from the 0 which was over further. The three wins came off marks of 52, 54 and 58 on a variety of ground types from soft to firm and today she runs off a fair mark of 56. Her record on the All-weather is 0-18, with only two places – this shows she is a much better horse on the grass. The first two of those wins also came following runs on the AW beforehand, suggesting the trainer likes to use the AW as a way of getting the selection’s mark down for a turf run. She had her reappearance fitness test two weeks ago at Kempton and looks primed for a much better run today. Amy Murphy is in great form of late too (5-21, 24%) and Gabriele Malune gets the ride back, who knows the horse well and takes an extra 3lb off from her last run. High draws are favoured at Windsor, especially when the ground is soft and we get the highest draw here – it looks likely it will be good-soft tomorrow but our pick is versatile groundwise. This is an incredibly weak race, most are completely out of form and even the favourite Our Man In Havana has been running at a very low level and hasn’t run on turf for two years. The second favourite Red Bravo is also a maiden. 25-1 is simply a ridiculous price.
June 21st Selection (4) – Philosophical 6-1 UNPLACED
4.15 Redcar Sunday – Philosophical 6-1 (1pt win) B365, Lad, Corals, Betfred, Betway, BetVictor
We were on Philosophical last time out when he went off a big price against mostly 80-90 rated horses. He wasn’t beaten that far and now drops into a 0-65 Class 6 event with the best form here. He also finished within 4l of 102 King Carney on his second start. Now he’s had a fitness run we can expect him to come on for that and potentially be much better than this field. Dods yard is badly out of form (1-40) and Carriesmatic hasn’t been running at a great level – the two market leaders have also been off the track for 9 months so I am keen to oppose them, although they may improve for the new trip. I am more than happy to give this tracker horse another go in this easier contest.
June 21st Selection (3) – Le Reveur 3-1 2ND
2.25 Kempton Sunday – Le Reveur 3-1 General (2pt win) with 7-2 Hills
I have been following Feel Good Factor for some time now and he is becoming frustrating. While he drops back into a Class 6 and could go well here, I am favouring Le Reveur to make a winning start in handicaps. Sir Mark Prescott is profitable with handicap debutants on the All-weather (33-168, 19.64%), BF P/L +49.94 and has partnered with Ryan Tate to three wins out of their last seven runners together. The selection is yet to be touched by a whip in three runs under Luke Morris and gets first time cheekpieces today. Prescott is also profitable when applying first time headgear to his horses in handicaps, as well as cheekpieces specifically. Aside from Feel Good Factor, the only real danger is Annie Quickstep who would need a strong pace to get involved. Hopefully we can break well from a wide draw and get into a good rhythm down the long straight.
June 21st Selection (2) – Waqaas 8-1 UNPLACED
2.55 Kempton Sunday – Waqaas 8-1 (1pt win) Coral and Betfred with 9-1 available B365 (All BOG after 8am)
I am taking on our last time out winner The Game of Life today with another potentially well handicapped type in Waqaas. He has been rapidly falling down the weights since being beat by Blue Point in a Group 2 event for Charlie Hills 4 years ago. His mark has fallen from 96 down to 59. Although he hasn’t shown much in seven starts for Mark Usher, he has had some encouraging efforts off higher marks at this track and may have regained a bit of spark. He has had a prep run at Chelmsford a couple of weeks ago when staying on from the rear, so he should be fit and may come on for that today. His recent speed figures also hint at a potential return to form. Ryan Tate takes the ride who is in great nick of late (5-24, 21%), including a win for this trainer on Bird For Life. In The Red landed a gamble LTO but may need the run here having struggled fresh in the past. Treble Clef, although unexposed, hasn’t shown much and his jockey Muscatt is really struggling for winners lately, with none in his last 38 rides. Market support would be a positive sign.